Wimbledon 2024 Quarterfinals: How to bet Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic for Wednesday 7/10

from Minaur

It was only six months ago that the Aussie broke into the top 10 for the first time in his career, and he did so in grand style with an upset of Djokovic at the United Cup. He introduced a backhand slice to his game that held back some of the world’s best players for months before we reached the clay court portion of the tennis calendar — a fixture he has never enjoyed.

It seems that the rut that de Minaur got into on an unfriendly surface made us quickly forget how well he played, but since he stepped onto the grass, it has been hard to forget. The world number 9 won the title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and, after going down on tired legs to Lorenzo Musetti a few days later, normal service was resumed at Wimbledon with three sparkling performances and one promotion on a walkover.

De Minaur is ideally suited to grass because of his speed, which is probably the best on tour, but also because of his tireless, flat shots and his ability to close the net.

Djokovic

The seven-time Wimbledon champion came into action last week with perhaps the darkest prospect he has had for a Grand Slam in years. After undergoing surgery to repair what is believed to be a partially With a torn meniscus, Djokovic certainly couldn’t expect to perform at his best before the tournament started.

After four matches, the jury is still out. The draw was very favorable to him, and yet he lost two sets in his first three matches and seemed to be in real danger against Alexei Popyrin. His victory over Holger Rune in the fourth round was a good one on paper, but it was far from the Dane’s best match.

So I think the evaluation of Djokovic is still ongoing here. This will be his first big test, against a player who is not only playing brilliantly on this surface, but also beaten him earlier in the season. His movement should be questioned quite a bit with the extended rallies that de Minaur will force, and unlike the last four rounds, he won’t be up against an opponent who will give him free points for mistakes.

de Minaur – Djokovic choice

If de Minaur hadn’t sprained his hip on match point against Fils, I would have been behind him with complete confidence. Now I’m a little worried about one of the toughest tests in tennis — against Djokovic on a grass court.

The Aussie has downplayed the hip problem as “a scare”, although it’s hard to say he would admit to the injury before the Djokovic match. It certainly didn’t inspire confidence when he looked at his box and shook his head after the win over Fils, and it didn’t inspire confidence when he admitted his body was a little brittle from all the tennis.

Despite the uneasy feeling, I am going to trust his words and, more importantly, his game. De Minaur did not even play his best game against Fils, as his service let him down in the final phase, but he still seemed to have everything under control throughout the match and closed the fourth period in spectacular fashion.

Even at 80% I still think De Minaur’s coverage of the court and his ability to play long rallies on grass will exhaust a slightly handicapped Djokovic.

I’m not sure Djokovic is completely confident in his moves or game. If he doesn’t perform at his best here, I think the physical problems will increase against a grass player like De Minaur.

Choice: de Minaur +4.5 games (-105 via (DraftKings)