Will the Atlantic hurricane season live up to the expectations of East Coast surfers?

Hurricane Franklin surfs Nantucket in August 2023. Photo: Dan LeMaitre

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Most Atlantic surfers are aligned with the hurricane and tropical storm forecasts at the moment, and for good reason. All predictions point to an overactive one, and some would even say “hyperactive” upcoming storm season that could very well translate into an outpouring of waves from our rocky points to our sandy beaches.

Hurricane hype is nothing new in New England, and sometimes when your wave-crazy buddy can’t stop whining about the pumping waves expected in late summer, you have to slip them a Valium. But meteorologists, weathermen, and starving surfers across the country are weighing in as the season gets underway (as I write this, we’re only in Day 25). In its preseason outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted more storms than ever before, with approximately 7-25 named storms, 8-13 of that group expected to be hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes. For comparison, the previous record for NOAA forecasted storm counts was in 2010, which was 14 to 23 named storms.

To what extent is this whining about waves of hype and to what extent does the information we have so far correspond to reality? James Wielanda meteorologist in West Palm Beach, Florida for the NBC affiliate, says the reason the hype meter is getting out of hand is because “all the ingredients are coming together”; including abnormally warm sea surface temperatures, which Wieland says “acts as fuel for storms.” A fanatic surfer For more than three decades, Wieland has been quick to point out that ingredients are “just indicators,” and that we need more than hot water to act as “a match to light the gas” for an explosive storm. Still, he adds, “it would be very strange” if we didn’t see a particularly active hurricane season this year, “given all the positives.”

The ingredients fueling these predictions, some of which are record-breaking, are varied and total perfect storm (Sorry, had to). First, our extremely warm Atlantic and Caribbean waters create more intense storms. These warmer seas are enhanced by the incoming La Niña weather pattern, which replaces a strong El Niño pattern. According to Wieland, there is a good chance that La Nina will develop in July and continue through the winter. When La Niña takes effect, Wieland says there is “little to no wind shear, so you’re pulling away something that’s preventing a storm from forming and getting stronger.” Added to this cauldron of fiery potential is the idea that West African monsoons, which Wieland calls the “seeds” for some of the most powerful Atlantic storms, are expected to occur in above-average numbers.



The facts don’t lie: there is a good chance that we will experience a record-breaking storm season relatively soon this year. When we recently talked to a friend about these predictions, we both started cheering – finally, waves coming!? – and then abruptly withdrew. The reality of rooting for hurricanes to bring us epic surf is that you realize very quickly that you may also be enthusiastically supporting coastal destruction, injury, and death.

According to the Environmental Defense Fund, the most destructive hurricanes are three times more common than they were a century ago, and move more slowly. From Katrina in 2005, Superstorm Sandy in 2012, Harvey in 2017 and Ian in 2022; these monstrous storms hover over our increasingly overcrowded coastlines, causing irreparable damage. In fact, the total costs of climate and weather-related disasters in the US from 1980 to 2023 is in the trillions, with 2023 breaking records for our warming climate, flooding and dangerous weather.

While many of us first think of chaotic winds when we think of hurricane season in the fall, it is the storm surges that have been so destructive lately, as the winds push waves over the coast and into traditionally dry communities. As the Earth warms, ocean waters are warming and glaciers and ice caps are melting. This causes sea ​​level rise and storm surges become more dramatic, creating vast, slow-moving, intense storms that have the power to cause irreversible destruction. You know those photos of people paddling through the streets of their community after a storm surge? That kind of thing didn’t happen very often 30 years ago.

As a surfer, my memories of last fall focus on a series of roughly three weeks of sustained hurricane surf, epitomized by Hurricane Lee and Hurricane Franklin. But those storms stayed in the middle of the Atlantic, carving a narrow path to deliver good-quality waves. When storms reach the Caribbean, the waves can be cut off unless they have the strength and direction to reach the central Atlantic. On the other hand, when storms are strong enough, they can make it to the Gulf or western Atlantic via a curved path—and if they get that close, they can hit land.

Of course, no one, not even a surfer hungry for surfing after a long, flat summer, wants a big storm to make landfall and cause catastrophe. We just want waves for days. So, what kind of assault course should Atlantic surfers hope for? “For the East Coast,” Wieland explains, “the ideal path for good waves is a long-track storm that develops quickly off Cape Verde, builds quickly, hooks between Bermuda and Hatteras, and then moves out to sea.” For Florida surfers, Wieland, who calls Palm Beach home, adds that a “stalled storm off Bermuda is good for pretty much everyone, even South Florida.”

Hopefully we can cut through all the hype and collectively hope for a powerful, yet safe hurricane season that brings waves to all who want them (sorry, West Coast, but you have an eternal embarrassment of riches), and not’ leave anyone stranded in the streets with only one paddleboard to his name.