Will England make it? Chris Sutton’s prediction for the Euro 2024 final

Gareth Southgate has done well in leading England to the final and he deserves a lot of credit.

I actually thought their semi-final win over the Netherlands was England’s best performance to date. They really impressed me in the first half when they took control of the game.

It was still not a perfect performance, but Southgate’s substitutions were successful, with Cole Palmer replacing Ollie Watkins and scoring the winning goal.

Harry Kane is currently the tournament’s top scorer with three goals, but he’s not really a player who likes to chase things down.

Watkins is a bit more dynamic and offers a different kind of threat.

England have been criticised at this tournament for not stretching their defences enough. You always need people to make moves at the back and Watkins gives them that.

Kane is different because he is a central striker and you have to create chances for him. He is devastating in and around the box but the pressure was on Bukayo Saka or Jude Bellingham to run behind.

That hasn’t happened often and it means it’s predictable who England will be playing against.

That said, I think it’s a big plus for Southgate that he has different types of players who can influence games in different ways.

I see their depth up front as a positive rather than a stick to beat Kane with. I don’t think Watkins will start the final, I’m pretty sure of that, but there’s always the option to bring him on.

Same goes for Palmer, I’ve been hammering all tournament that he deserves a starting spot, which he hasn’t had yet, but he’s still come into the game and is having an impact on games.

As I said, England did well to reach the final, but this is a test of a completely different magnitude.

I have beaten Spain several times in these European Championships and they were the stars of this tournament.

They are a team that has this great ability to win games in different ways. Spain are traditionally a team that controls possession, but while they can still do that and be dominant with the ball, they are also devastating without seeing much of it.

Everyone is talking about their young wingers, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, and that’s obvious, but they are strong everywhere you look.

Spain will have right-back Dani Carvajal back from suspension and must decide whether to bring back Robin le Normand instead of Nacho, who is suspended, at centre-back.

So, apart from the best two wide players, they are especially solid in midfield, with the best midfield of the tournament. Moreover, with only three goals conceded in six games, they also have the best defence.

Alvaro Morata works hard up front, but I think that’s the one area where they don’t have a great player.

Mind you, there have been no real standout strikers at this tournament. Maybe this is the match where Morata or Kane really come to the fore?

Spain’s strength lies in midfield with Rodri widely regarded as the best number six – or defensive midfielder – in the world. He is his usual self, but alongside him Fabian Ruiz has a great habit of getting into the box late to take chances, and England will need to take note.

Dani Olmo, who plays as number 10, also drives but he will also run at the back. He only got his chance because Pedri was injured, but with three goals and two assists he is on fire.

Lamal scored a stunning goal against France, while Williams was the tournament’s standout striker.

It will be difficult for England to keep them all quiet, because Spain can play through you, but also through you.

England rightly received praise for their performance against the Netherlands, but they will have to rise a level or two to win here.

England probably have the best chance if they can play Saka one-on-one with Spain left-back Marc Cucurella, as he could cause him all sorts of problems.

This is not because I think Cucurella is a bad player, but rather because I see no weaknesses in other aspects of the Spanish team.

The Spanish players are so match-conscious, they read what’s happening so well.

Sometimes they press high, sometimes they drop deep, stay narrow and block the spaces that Phil Foden found against the Dutch.

And then suddenly, if they win the ball back within one or two passes, they always have those runners behind them.

Williams’ fight with Kyle Walker will be worth watching, but that is just one of the individual duels that will determine the outcome.

England are a team of mixed results: they have found moments that matter, but they have no set pattern of play.

I have no doubt that Spain will be the better team and we will see clear patterns of play from them, but England have to do what they have done in all the tournaments: they were not always the best team in the games they won.

Southgate’s team is growing in confidence and they are a team with both strong and individual players who can hurt Spain, but I don’t think it will be enough.

Nothing would please me more than to see England finish and Southgate fly home as European champions. But I haven’t been blindly backing them and I’m not going to start now.

I think Spain will win because they are well-attuned to each other, they have been so superior so far… and I don’t see England stopping them.

Sutton’s prediction: Spain 2-1 England