Who will win the presidential election? Some polls, predicting probabilities

Trump had the widest lead in a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll conducted last week, while a trio of other surveys showed a closer race among likely voters in Arizona. Trump leads Harris by 6 percentage points in that Suffolk poll, but neither candidate crossed the 50% support threshold in the survey, which was conducted September 19-24.

Meanwhile, the Marist College pollster surveyed Arizona during the same period and found that Trump had 50% of support among likely voters, a 1 percentage point lead over Harris, who had 49% of support. The Marist poll of 1,264 likely voters in Arizona had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Trump surpassed 50% in a Fox News poll of 764 likely Arizona voters conducted jointly by Republican and Democratic pollsters Shaw & Company Research and Beacon Research. Fifty-one percent of Arizona voters were likely to support Trump in that poll, and 48% backed Harris. The Fox News survey was in the field from September 20 to 24 and had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Historian who predicted nine out of 10 elections weighs in

Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, DC. He received his PhD from Harvard, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.