When can Tua Tagovailoa return and what’s next for the Dolphins?

MIAMI — Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa played a full season for the first time in his NFL career in 2023, leading the NFL in passing yards and leading the league’s best passing offense en route to an 11-win season and an AFC Wild Card berth.

The Dolphins rewarded him with a four-year, $212.1 million contract extension this offseason, hoping Tagovailoa and the Dolphins would take a step forward in 2024.

But the 2024 season has already been a bust from the start. Tagovailoa suffered the third documented concussion of his NFL career in a Week 2 loss to the Buffalo Bills. He was placed on the injured list a few days later.

In the Dolphins’ first game without him, they lost 24-3 at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. Backup quarterback Skylar Thompson was unimpressive, throwing for 107 yards before being knocked out of the game midway through the third quarter with a rib injury. Tim Boyle, his backup, didn’t fare much better, completing 7 of 13 passes for 79 yards. The offense had 205 total yards, nearly 200 yards below its 2023 season average.

The Dolphins are three games into a 17-game season, but they’re in a loaded AFC conference. With Tagovailoa out at least three games, Miami’s offense faces an uncertain future.

With games against the Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals before visiting the Bills on Nov. 3, the Dolphins’ early schedule is favorable. But the quarterback situation could hold back one of the NFL’s most expensive wide receiver rooms ($48.7 million), limiting this offense as a whole.

With Tagovailoa’s future still uncertain, here’s what we know about his position and the Dolphins’.

Tagovailoa attended the Dolphins game in Seattle last weekend. How long will he be on the injured list and what hurdles will he have to overcome to be able to play again?

NFL rules state that a player placed on the injured list must miss at least his team’s next four games — so Tagovailoa has three games remaining. The Dolphins play the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots over the next two weeks before their Week 6 bye. The final game in that series is Oct. 20 at the Indianapolis Colts.

McDaniel has repeatedly said there is no timeline for Tagovailoa’s return. The Dolphins are focused on the health of their franchise quarterback.

“The great thing about IR is that there are — for a month’s time, there are no timelines,” McDaniel said last week. “I always say that, but I’m not sure people fully understand; if you set a timeline based on the information you have today, how much of whatever happens fulfills the prophecy of that timeline? And is that the right thing to do? Especially with competitors and all that, sometimes you can do more harm than good.

“Not having to worry about anything in terms of the timeline gives him a lot of strength as a person to recover from an injury. That’s the only motivating factor you have when you’re dealing with players, their careers and their injuries.”

If Tagovailoa is allowed to return, what do the Dolphins say about his future this season and beyond?

While they are focused on his full recovery, the Dolphins have not publicly indicated that Tagovailoa will not be their starting quarterback as long as his play warrants it.

What does need to change is the way he protects himself in the future.

Tagovailoa’s most recent concussion came when he made contact with Buffalo Bills defensive back Damar Hamlin after scrambling for a first down. That’s not what he’s coached for; specifically after suffering two confirmed concussions in 2022, Tagovailoa said if he runs in October, he’s expected to slide.

“My coaches told me, ‘We never want you to (initiate contact),'” Tagovailoa said. “Of course I understand that, after the injury and what happened before with the concussion. But to me, it’s football. You go out there and I see the first down in some cases and I want to do everything I can to get it.”

McDaniel said prior to the Week 3 game that he understands why a player might make contact during a run, but he doesn’t condone it with his quarterbacks.

“I appreciate competitiveness and fighting for every yard, but I don’t coach quarterbacks to overwhelm defenders,” McDaniel said. “But you’re trying to play a competitive sport where people are trying to tackle you hard and sometimes the competitiveness takes over. I don’t judge it as much as I try to take lessons from it and be able to articulate, ‘OK, what can you do going forward?’ I don’t adapt — I have the same philosophy. It’s okay, in this situation, maybe identify the yard line and run or slide into space.”

If he is not medically cleared to play, how much would the Dolphins owe Tagovailoa and how would that affect the salary cap? How would that amount change if he is cleared but decides to retire?

Tagovailoa’s extension includes $167.1 million in guaranteed money, $93.1 million of which was fully guaranteed at signing. If he is never medically cleared to play, he would be entitled to the full $167.1 million. In that case, the Dolphins would be insured for up to $49.3 million of Tagovailoa’s contract — though it is not known whether concussions are excluded from the Dolphins’ insurance policy.

Two insurance industry sources with no direct knowledge of Miami’s policy told ESPN that they expect concussions to be excluded from Miami’s insurance coverage for Tagovailoa, based on their experience with insurance companies.

If Tagovailoa is medically cleared to play and retires, he forfeits his remaining guaranteed money. The most likely outcome in this scenario is that Tagovailoa and the Dolphins reach some sort of good-faith settlement — including the team not trying to recoup any portion of Tagovailoa’s $42 million signing bonus. An NFL consultant with no direct knowledge of the Dolphins’ plan suggested to ESPN that if Tagovailoa were to wait until after the season to retire, the Dolphins could advise him to do so after June 1, which would give them an $8.4 million cap charge in 2025. The remaining $25.2 million would then count toward the 2026 salary cap.

The “likely outcome” if Tagovailoa were to retire, the source said, is that the Dolphins would let him keep his signing bonus and possibly reach an additional settlement — though that amount likely wouldn’t be significant relative to his contract.

Neither Tagovailoa nor his Dolphins teammates or coaches have indicated he plans to retire.

What would happen to the Dolphins if he were to retire?

Tagovailoa’s retirement would immediately disrupt the team’s timeline as a Super Bowl contender. Miami is built to win right now, with skilled players like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane all under the team’s control for the next few seasons. But the supporting cast likely won’t matter without the right quarterback in place.

Thompson, Boyle and Tyler Huntley are the Dolphins’ current quarterbacks, but if Tagovailoa doesn’t return, Miami could look to a veteran like Ryan Tannehill, hire a veteran like Jimmy Garoppolo or hire a young quarterback looking for a new situation in Bryce Young.

Thompson has one year left on his rookie contract, but it’s unlikely he’ll enter the 2025 season as Miami’s starter under this scenario. If Tagovailoa opts out this season, Miami could earn a high pick in the 2025 NFL draft and use that selection on a quarterback. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Miami’s Cam Ward and Georgia’s Carson Beck are among the top QBs available in the 2025 draft.

Either way, the quarterback position would need to be addressed without Tagovailoa, and if it doesn’t, it could result in a reset of what was once a promising rebuild.

If Thompson returns from his rib injury, will he play again?

This is the least experienced quarterback room the Dolphins have assembled since Tagovailoa was selected fifth overall in 2020. When the Dolphins signed Huntley from the Ravens practice squad, McDaniel said the move was intended to create more depth behind Thompson.

He did leave the door open for a game, though. Especially after Thompson and the Dolphins’ performance against Seattle in Week 3, Huntley could be on the field soon. McDaniel described Thompson’s rib injury as “painful,” and the team should know the full extent of it on Monday.

“I think it helps the dynamic of the room to bring another guy with a history of starting to this team,” McDaniel said last week after adding Huntley, “and it gives another added addition of a guy who’s a signal-caller that a team can get behind. I was happy with the addition — what we were able to do in the quarterback room — adding Boyle, but I think (adding Huntley) is more direct to back up Skylar and then you always let the competition play when it’s on the field, but this was definitely a depth move.”

Miami could also turn to Boyle, who has experience as a starter. He has completed 102 of 157 passes for 853 yards and four touchdowns against nine interceptions in five career starts for the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets. He orchestrated the Dolphins’ two longest drives of the day in relief of Thompson on Sunday.

Tagovailoa could still return for the team’s final 11 regular-season games. Even if the Dolphins are 1-5 by the time he plays again, Miami would have a fighting chance to clinch a spot in the AFC playoff picture. However, with games against the Packers, Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns and Jets to close out the season, it would be tough for the Dolphins to reach the postseason for a third straight year.