What’s the latest on Florida American football coach Billy Napier?

There is an air of inevitability surrounding the future of Florida’s embattled coach Billy Napier.

After two lackluster home games and a seven-game losing streak against FBS opponents, Napier’s poor track record has essentially sealed his fate as coach in Gainesville. The only thing left to sort out is the timing of his departure.

Napier’s spiraling tenure philosophically intersects with a famous quote from Florida athletic director Jeremy Foley. He adapted a phrase from Henry Kissinger when he declared after the firing of Ron Zook in 2004: “If something is finally going to be done, it should be done immediately.”

The “eventually” part is secured, as no one expects Napier to be back on the sidelines for the Gators in 2025. The various factors surrounding doing something immediately then come into play as an impatient fan base waits for some hope to cling to.

Florida travels to Mississippi State this weekend. A loss in Starkville ultimately cost Ron Zook his job in 2004, leading to Foley’s citation. That was seven games into the season in late October, which was considered shockingly early at the time. (Foley subsequently outsmarted Notre Dame by hiring Urban Meyer, one of the most important signings in school history.)

The idea that late October is early is now outdated. Five coaches from power conferences were fired on Oct. 2, 2022. Here are five questions that need to be answered as Florida decides the future of its struggling football program.

1. Why should I change anything soon?

In general, the reason to make a change early in the season has to be accompanied by a clear path to improvement. If that path is uncertain, as it appears to be in Florida, the only reason to make the change would be as an emotional response to appease the fans.

Part of the reason for not firing Napier so early in the season is also an indictment of his ability to build a top-notch SEC coaching staff. There is no obvious interim hire. Veteran defensive line coach Ron Roberts has plenty of head coaching experience, but he is more of an old-school disciplinarian than someone who would embrace a team. He is also new.

Former Central Michigan coach Dan Enos is also on the staff as a special assistant. He has been fired twice in the past five seasons from offensive coordinator jobs and will also not have the deep player relationships because he only arrived in February.

Napier is both the head coach and the lead playcaller. There aren’t many answers or upgrades for the offensive staff. Would removing him take away a respected leader in the locker room and further shrink the offensive staff by bringing in a new lead playcaller? (Tight ends coach Russ Callaway is a former offensive coordinator at Samford, which could make him a potential playcaller, depending on how the dynamic pans out.)

2. How much would it cost?

The final bill for Florida will be somewhere around $27 million, depending on timing. If they do something around the end of the month, the buyout would be around $27.7 million, half of which would be due within 30 days. That’s over $13.8 million dollars that needs to be paid out quickly.

The amount gradually decreases, which would put it below $27 million by the end of the regular season. Either way, Florida will have the honor of handing out the second-largest buyout in college football history. That’s light years behind Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher payout of more than $76 million, which included a lump sum of $19.2 million over 60 days.

Florida has enough money, so that won’t be a deciding factor. But it’s still important. The reason Florida came here is because Napier negotiated a seven-year deal, 85% of which is guaranteed. Napier had been picky, having rejected overtures from both South Carolina and Auburn.

3. Who makes the decisions?

Florida is in an interesting administrative moment. The board badly botched the school’s last presidential appointment, as Ben Sasse left a trail of questions about his spending and hiring. He resigned in July for personal reasons, but a flurry of ugly stories since his resignation have left a huge stain on his reputation. (The $176,800 Christmas party was the last of his $1.3 million in private catering expenses in his first year on the job.)

Interim President Kent Fuchs is also the former president, a beloved academic who rarely touched sports during his time as the school’s president. He hired Scott Stricklin as athletic director. Stricklin has been the SEC athletic director since 2010, when he took over at Mississippi State, and has been Florida’s AD since Fuchs hired him in 2016.

He is experienced, respected in the industry and has credibility with the Florida Board of Supervisors. He also has a strong relationship with Fuchs, who would ultimately make a decision on his future with the board.

Stricklin has been criticized by Napier’s hiring, which followed Dan Mullen’s three-season run that fell apart in his fourth year. Mullen was fired that season with a 5-6 record. (Mullen, now an ESPN analyst, won 69.4 percent of his games at Florida and played for the SEC title in his third year. Napier has won 42.9 percent of his games and was under .500 in his first two years in the SEC.)

Will Stricklin get the next hire? That’s one of the biggest variables hanging over the dynamics at Florida. It’s rare for athletic directors, especially in the SEC, to make three football hires after firing the first two coaches. But don’t be surprised if Stricklin gets that chance.

It’s tricky for an interim president to hire an athletic director, because not knowing who your boss might be could potentially limit the pool of AD candidates. Stricklin has three years left on his contract and would be owed nearly $3 million if he were fired.

Logistically, it’s tough for Florida to move on from Stricklin. Can an interim president fire and hire a new athletic director in time to begin a coaching search by mid-November?

4. What influence does the expanded play-offs have on the search for a new coach?

The way the college football calendar has evolved is going to work against Florida. After missing out on an up-and-coming coach in Napier, who came from Louisiana, the natural inclination would be to go with the opposite. That would mean an established, big name, big brand head coach.

Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin will be the speculative favorite, as his affinity for free-flowing thought channels Steve Spurrier. His offensive acumen brings with it some elements of Urban Meyer, who came to Florida amid skepticism that spread offenses could work in the SEC. (They did.)

There are other prominent names that will be mentioned alongside Kiffin’s — Penn State’s James Franklin, Nebraska’s Matt Rhule, Missouri’s Eliah Drinkwitz, Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and Kansas State’s Chris Klieman. They all coach currently ranked teams that could have a shot at making the expanded College Football Playoff.

The new playoff dynamic is an interesting wrinkle in the carousel. The new 12-team College Football Playoff begins on Dec. 20, which would make it difficult for a school like Florida to hire an incumbent coach who makes the CFP. The ideal time to hire a new coach would be late November, since it takes time to evaluate a roster and figure out who’s worth what money.

The transfer portal opens on December 9, but by then most players have already re-channeled their next stop. The first high school signing period begins on December 4. That’s a lot of important dates to miss to sit out a coach, especially considering the CFP National Championship is on January 20.

“The playoffs have thrown a wrench into the coaching carousel,” an industry source told ESPN. “Especially for places like Florida, who can’t hire another Sun Belt coach. They have to bring in a big name.”

5. How good is Florida for jobs?

This will be an interesting question to ask in the industry, as Florida has fired four consecutive coaches and struggled to assemble a competitive SEC roster in the NIL era.

Part of this is due to Napier’s adherence to his program plan and attack, which he has remained true to despite the diminishing returns.

There appears to be a significant financial commitment, given that Napier has a huge workforce and Florida’s new $85 million soccer complex is set to open in 2022 and is considered a top-tier team.

Internally, Florida rates its NIL budget as one of the top 10 in the country and competitive with the highest levels of the SEC. That’s been evident with recent recruiting success, including landing ESPN’s top dual-threat quarterback in the country in the Class of 2024, DJ Lagway, and top defensive end prospect LJ McCray.

The Florida court has a feast-or-famine feel, as it has title winners like Meyer and Spurrier and then outliers like Zook (23-14), Will Muschamp (28-21) and Jim McElwain (22-12). To be fair, they were all better than Napier, who is 12-16 and on track for the school’s worst full-time tenure in more than 70 years. There’s a strong brand, a strong league connection and a recruiting base. But the roster doesn’t look like Florida’s SEC peers. Future coaches will try to figure out what happened there to make it that way.