What top advisors are saying about the impact on the presidential election market

“Historically, presidential elections are not nearly as important to markets as most people think,” said Mark Motley, portfolio manager at Foster & Motley in Cincinnati, No. 34 on the 2024 CNBC Financial Advisor 100 list.

All presidential terms since President Jimmy Carter have seen healthy stock market returns for the full four or eight years, with the exception of President George W. Bush due to the Great Recession, Motley wrote in a recent market update.

To be fair, past market performance is not a predictor of future results.

“It’s really hard to predict any market movement based on whoever wins the presidency or whoever controls one or both houses of Congress,” said Joseph Veranth, chief investment officer at Dana Investment Advisors in Waukesha, Wis. is in fourth place in the rankings. the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

Yet there is reason for optimism. The US economy is in a strong position, with declining inflation and strong growth and profits.

“These are all positives for the future market,” Veranth said.

However, the presidential battle could create short-term volatility, especially if a winner is not declared immediately.

Regardless of which party has historically been in power, markets have moved higher overall, said Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James.

Over the long term, a president’s policies have shown little ability to predict which sectors will do best, Adam said.

For example, when former President Donald Trump took office, many said energy was the place to put your money. But even with deregulation, record production and higher oil prices, the energy sector has fallen 8.4% during Trump’s presidential term, according to Adam’s research.

“During his four years, energy was by far the worst performing sector,” Adam said.

In contrast, energy has performed better during the Biden presidency – up 24.4% on September 25 – despite an emphasis on renewables and sustainability that may have led speculators to expect otherwise.

While the presidential candidates have been clear about what they plan to do if elected, much of what they actually accomplish will depend on the makeup of the legislature, said Brad Houle, managing director and head of fixed income at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management in Portland. , Oregon, No. 10 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

“We are not recommending that customers make any changes at all,” Houle said of election month.

Ultimately, factors such as economic performance, stock market gains and what investors are willing to pay for them will drive stock market returns, he said.