What is the real value of a Premier League goal?

Erling Haaland has been a hit this season.

The 24-year-old’s two goals for Manchester City against Brentford on Saturday took his tally for the 2024-25 season to nine, the most by a player in the first four games of a Premier League season.

Back-to-back three-goal hauls against West Ham United and Ipswich Town mean Haaland has scored eight hat-tricks, the joint fourth-highest total in the Premier League, despite only being in the competition for just over two years. For those who suggested the Norway international’s form dipped last season, when he was hit by a series of injuries, he appears to have taken it personally.

Haaland’s goalscoring prowess often resembles that of a schoolyard bully – promoted Ipswich might have asked him to pick someone of his own stature – but his record shows he’s not afraid of the traditional ‘Big Six’. He has scored against every Premier League team he’s faced since making his debut for City in August 2022.

Yet the ease with which he scores against teams like West Ham and Ipswich begs the question: are all goals worth the same?

Those two goals against Brentford, who have finished 13th, ninth and 16th in the Premier League over the past three seasons, were impressive, but would one goal to beat title rivals Arsenal next Sunday carry more weight?

The Athletics has previously examined the value of a goal, determined by factors such as the timing and importance of a particular goal, and it is now common practice to adjust the value of a player’s statistics according to the strength of the league in which he plays.

But can we dig deeper and adapt to the specific opponents we face?

GALLING DEEPER

Can we measure the value of a goal?

First, the methodology.

We can measure the strength of a team with their ClubElo rating, which awards points when teams win. More points are given for beating stronger teams and less for dealing with easier opponents. Simply put, higher ratings equal higher quality.

By calculating the ClubElo rating of each club at the time the match in question was played, we can estimate the proportional difference in team quality and adjust the value of a player’s goal.

For example, each of Haaland’s three goals against Ipswich last month were worth “around” 0.8 goals, given the difference in quality between the two teams. By contrast, Sammie Szmodics’ strike for the visitors in their 4-1 defeat at the Etihad Stadium that day was worth 1.3 goals, based on the fact that it came against considerably stronger opponents.

If we add this up across all players since the start of the 2018-19 season, we can take a closer look at the top scorers to see who has padded their stats.

A difference of 15 goals means that Mohamed Salah’s haul of 126 goals would be worth 111 goals, while Haaland’s 72 would have an adjusted value of 60. Despite their impressive goalscoring records, the aggregate scores of those two players are the most deficient when adjusted for the quality of the opposition.

Those playing for the strongest teams can only diminish the value of their goals against weaker opponents – so the system is more likely to disadvantage Haaland and Salah – but this analysis can help us spot those strikers who have a knack for finding the net against the better teams.

Ollie Watkins is spared the penalty because he scores regularly against clubs considered better than Aston Villa — including Arsenal, Liverpool (five in each case), City (two) and Tottenham (three). His 61 Premier League goals were worth… well, exactly 61 goals after they had their value adjusted since he joined Villa four years ago.

Despite Everton’s goal production in recent years, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been a player who has consistently shown value in his goals, scoring against weak opponents, as well as against City, Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal.

If we were to apply this methodology to last season’s Premier League Golden Boot race, the table would be a lot tighter. Haaland still topped the list, but his 27 goals were worth a ‘more modest’ 22.9, putting him just ahead of Cole Palmer, whose adjusted value equated to 21.6 goals for Chelsea.

Who added the most value to his/her goals during this period?

In relative terms, Luton Town’s Elijah Adebayo has seen the biggest increase in goalscoring output, with an average increase of 12 per cent per goal – or a strike that is ‘worth more than 1.1 goals’ by this metric. Of Adebayo’s 10 goals in the Premier League last season, seven came against Chelsea, Newcastle United, Brighton & Hove Albion, Arsenal and City, highlighting his ability to mix it with the best.

Nottingham Forest’s Taiwo Awoniyi also comes out on top, adding almost eight per cent to his 14 goals – three of which came against Arsenal, two against Chelsea and the goal against Liverpool in October 2022.

Leandro Trossard and Jack Grealish are also on the list for their output at previous clubs Brighton and Villa. The ability to stand out against stronger opposition could be crucial and is thought to have played a part in earning transfers to Arsenal and City.

Another recent example of this is Dominic Solanke, whose goals for Bournemouth added five per cent extra value when you consider the strength of the opposition. Solanke now sits top of the Premier League table following his move to Tottenham in August, and it was clear that he was capable of operating at a level above Bournemouth (who have finished 12th and 15th since securing promotion back to the domestic elite in 2022) last season.

Goals are the currency of every striker, but like all players they are subject to exchange rates that vary from country to country.

It is common practice to adjust an individual’s performance relative to other competitions, but The Athletics has previously shown that inequality exists inside competitions.

GALLING DEEPER

Which of Europe’s top leagues is the most competitive? We tried to measure it…

Feyenoord’s Santiago Gimenez was close to a move to Forest in the summer after his 23 goals were the third-highest in the Dutch Eredivisie last season. But with six of those coming against struggling trio Excelsior, Almere City and Volendam (two of whom were relegated), the value of his goals is worth reconsidering.

The same can be said of Sporting Lisbon’s Viktor Gyokeres, who made his transition from the second division of the English Championship to the Primeira Liga effortlessly, scoring 29 goals in 33 league games — more than any other player in Portugal.

Many argue that the 26-year-old Swede deserves a move to the Premier League (he spent time on Brighton’s payroll from 2018 to 2021 but never made an appearance for them in the top flight in eight games), but the difference in quality between Sporting and relegated clubs Vizela and Chaves (against whom he scored six goals between them last season) is significant.

If you want to make the point, just look at Darwin Nunez’s goalscoring haul from Benfica to Liverpool. In his farewell season of 2021-22, the Lisbon club scored 26 league goals, but that has yet to be matched by his subsequent two years and a bit on Merseyside, where he now has 20 in the Premier League.

Even a simple analysis like this suggests that not all goals are created equal.

As for Haaland, adjusting the value of his goals was an attempt to make him seem human.

Did it work?

(Top photo: Michael Regan via Getty Images)