What happens after the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar?

Biden administration officials are celebrating the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar at the hands of the Israeli military as a triumph of justice over evil, but also as a major opportunity to settle the war in Gaza by restarting negotiations aimed at securing a ceasefire and the release of the remaining hostages in the enclave.

But even as U.S. diplomats say Sinwar’s demise removes a major obstacle to peace, they acknowledge that the mediators still have a challenging road ahead.

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ABC News spoke with officials and analysts about whether Sinwar’s killing could mark the beginning of the end of the conflict in Gaza and what’s next for the Middle East as a whole.

A power vacuum in Gaza

Hamas confirmed Sinwar’s death on Friday but vowed to continue fighting in his absence – and reiterated its position that no hostages will be released until there is a ceasefire in Gaza and all Israeli forces are withdrawn from the enclave.

Whether the militant group sticks with it may depend on who ultimately replaces Sinwar, but experts say there is also an opportunity in the uncertainty within the ranks.

“The chaos within Hamas following Sinwar’s death may provide an opportunity to exploit uncertainties and divisions to accelerate the release of the remaining Israeli hostages and the implementation of a general withdrawal and demobilization within Hamas,” said Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a senior fellow at Hamas. the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, told ABC News.

“Israel, Arab countries and the United States must now offer a mass amnesty to the remaining Hamas members who lay down their arms and stop fighting,” he added. “They should also offer financial rewards to those who surrender Israeli hostages or provide information leading to the whereabouts of the remaining abductees.”

Jon B. Alterman, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Middle East Program, also sees opportunity arising from the tumult, but notes that Hamas’ disarray will complicate near-term diplomacy efforts.

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“The war in Gaza is not over yet, but it has entered a new phase. Hamas will disintegrate as a fighting force, and some groups within Hamas will likely want to double down on violence, while others may seek to preserve options for fighting. future,” he said.

“Sinwar seemed strongly opposed to compromise, so his death makes some sort of settlement more possible. At the same time, the lack of a single credible Hamas leader means it will be difficult to push some parts of the organization toward a ceasefire. Alterman said.

U.S. officials expect it will take days, if not weeks, for mediators to fully engage diplomatically with Hamas again as the group manages its internal affairs, but say who is ultimately selected as Sinwar’s successor could be telling.

If Sinwar is replaced by his brother and right-hand man, Mohammed, they expect the group will try to stick to its hardline positions. However, officials believe that the appointment of a senior official within Hamas’s political wing could be a positive sign for the future of the negotiations.

What is Netanyahu doing now?

Of course, implementing a ceasefire in Gaza requires securing the cooperation not only of Hamas, but also that of the Israeli government.

In a speech to Israel after the news of Sinwar’s death, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country had shown the world “the victory of good over evil” but said the war “is not over yet.”

U.S.-Israel communications were largely celebratory in the wake of Sinwar’s killing, but officials said President Joe Biden did lay the groundwork for what is expected to be a strong push by the administration to convince Israel to concentrating on what it commonly calls ‘the day of the war’. after” the conflict in Gaza during his conversation with Netanyahu on Thursday.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is also expected to make a hard sell to Israeli officials when he travels to the Middle East in the coming days and the State Department has vowed to push the country’s leaders to tackle the “difficult decisions’ necessary to reach a pact. to end the war in Gaza.

But whether Netanyahu sees the benefits of such a deal remains to be seen.

Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, described Netanyahu’s comments in the wake of Sinwar’s killing as “contradictory messages” and argued that the ambiguity could jeopardize the prisoners’ return to take.

“Unless there is clarity from Israel at this time, while things are still ongoing, we could miss this opportunity,” he said.

A “political initiative” – including a ceasefire in Gaza, the return of the hostages and the start of post-war talks – has the support of “key constituencies” in Israel, including the military establishment, al-Omari said. Still, hardliners believe that Israel should use its advantage in Gaza and continue military operations while Sinwar is killed and the terrorist organization is weakened.

According to al-Omari, the Biden administration’s stated optimism about the prospects for a ceasefire at this crucial moment is – at least in part – an attempt to encourage Netanyahu to embrace diplomacy.

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“What they are trying to do is indirectly put pressure on Bibi by saying that this is the time to go for it. It becomes harder for Bibi to say, ‘You know what? I’m not going to do anything.” he said. “So this is the government’s way of, in addition to what happens behind closed doors, publicly creating a narrative that puts pressure on Netanyahu.”

Still, Alterman argues that Sinwar’s demise gives Netanyahu a level of political armor.

“In the short term, Sinwar’s death is a huge victory for Netanyahu. It’s a huge ‘I told you so’ for people who claimed he should have brokered a hostage and ceasefire deal with Sinwar this summer,” he said. . “He has been politically revived and Sinwar’s assassination will now be seen as his greatest triumph.”

Iran’s web of proxies

The Hamas leader’s death comes as Israel prepares to launch a counterattack against the group’s main sponsor, Iran, and as it intensifies its campaign in Lebanon against another of its powerful allies, Hezbollah.

Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and a former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East, says that while Sinwar’s death could provide an opportunity “to open one of the most painful chapters in Israel’s recent history, “It will do little to resolve the country’s other regional conflicts.

“Israeli operations in Lebanon have already begun and are unlikely to stop regardless of the outcome in Gaza,” he said, adding that the Israeli army will want to continue its mission to “eliminate Hezbollah’s stockpile of its most lethal weapons.” . such as ballistic and cruise missiles.”

Panikoff also argues that Israel is likely still as determined to hit back at Iran with a military strike that the Biden administration believes – while justified – could lead to further escalation.

“Sinwar’s death will almost certainly not prompt Israel to change course and refuse to attack Iran in retaliation for the October 1 ballistic missile attack, even as new negotiations on a deal in Gaza are underway. The need to ensure deterrence The restoration of statehood has never been more important for Israel,” he said.

What happens after the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar? originally appeared on abcnews.go.com