What could the best-case scenario for 2024 look like?

Throughout the 2024 season, the Jaguars On SI staff will meet weekly to host roundtable discussions, providing answers to all key topics relevant to the Jaguars and the AFC South.

This week the crew tackles one of the biggest questions facing the Jaguars heading into Week 1: What is the Jaguars’ ceiling in 2024? In short, what’s the best-case scenario?

We explain it below.

John Schipley: The ceiling and best-case scenario for the 2024 Jaguars is to get a step ahead of the Houston Texans, who the Jaguars overtook last year during the first years of C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans. The Jaguars have been 9-8 over the past two seasons, and expectations now need to be raised beyond just trying to beat the rest of the field in the AFC South. The Jaguars’ best-case scenario is not only to win the AFC South, but to do so in decisive fashion to show the Texans, Colts, and Titans that they are the top dogs.

The Jaguars have the scheme and front-seven impact players on defense, while Trevor Lawrence’s third year in the system and a roster of big-play skill players in Travis Etienne, Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis should raise the offense’s ceiling. There are questions about the depth of the secondary and the offensive line, but the Jaguars’ best-case scenario is that they move past it and take the next step toward becoming an AFC contender, not just an AFC South contender.

Kyle Nash: The division is where the action begins. I’m not sure if it’s the Titans or the Colts that get swept, but that puts the Jags at 4-2. The NFC North is lined up with teams with a lot of hype based on potential, except for the Lions. The odds of that being a 3-1 trip seem high. The AFC East will give the Dolphins a Week 1 win as a new-school defense takes on a sedentary Miami track meet.

However, that could also be 3-1 (especially if Aaron Rodgers is already out in Week 15 for the Jets). With the remaining two games as winnable games with the Browns and Raiders and this being the focus of the best-case scenario, the Duval Devout could be looking at a 13-4 record in the battle for a top spot in the AFC standings and a BYE in the divisional round of the playoffs where it makes sense they would battle the Baltimore Ravens for a shot at the AFC Championship Game.

Tyler Carmona: The differentiating factor for teams in a league full of athletic anomalies is their innovative strategies and tendency to stay healthy when it matters most. Trevor Lawrence is entering his third year as coach of Press Taylor and Doug Pederson, while defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen plans to install a defensive scheme that accentuates the strengths of his best players. A healthy season will likely allow the Jaguars to reach the playoffs, either as division champions or as Wild Card contenders. As football fans have seen in the past, once you reach the playoffs, it’s anyone’s game.

Daniel Griffis: The 2024 season will rest on the shoulders of the Jaguars coaching staff and their newly signed $275 million quarterback. Trevor has shown flashes of excellence in his young career, but we have yet to see him put together a season comparable to Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow or even C.J. Stroud. I certainly think he is capable and this is the year to prove why the franchise gave him a long-term contract extension.

The defense should theoretically be much better with the addition of Ryan Nielsen, Arik Armstead, and Ronald Darby. If Trevor Lawrence can develop some chemistry with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. early, the Jaguars offense should shine. Those two receivers specialize as deep threats, and that’s probably what Lawrence does best. The most important thing is to stay healthy. The Jaguars have the pieces to excel on both sides of the ball and control the AFC South from the start. I think the best case scenario is 11-12 wins and another division title for the Jaguars.