War in Ukraine: Zelensky’s path to the EU could be accelerated under Trump | World | News

There is much consternation across Europe today about what a Trump presidency will actually mean for Ukraine and European security.

But there is a path through which a Trump administration could actually accelerate Ukraine’s path to EU and NATO membership.

The 78-year-old demi-billionaire has made public his ambitions to meet and “make a deal” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin within 24 hours of occupying the White House in January.

Much of his rhetoric, of course, is inspired by a presidential campaign in which selling the idea of ​​giving billions of dollars to Ukraine when the border in Mexico remains undefended would have been anathema to his MAGA base.

Under the Biden presidency, the US has supported Ukraine with £175 billion in military aid through five separate bills. And a large part of that – around £50 billion – was channeled in April, precisely to give Zelensky breathing space in the eventuality of Trump’s presidency in November.

But Trump’s rejection of conventional diplomacy has paid off in the past.

Only a Trump administration, pursuing a policy of maximum pressure against major regional destabilizer Iran, could have secured the Abraham Accords, in which the Islamic Gulf states of Bahrain and the UAE joined Sudan and Morocco in normalizing relations with Israel .

Middle Eastern superpower Saudi Arabia was about to join when war broke out between Israel and Hamas on October 7.

It is no coincidence that Putin launched his invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 when a Democrat was in the Oval Office.

Trump may do everything he can to prevent war, but his unpredictability makes for an uncomfortable gamble.

Trump became the first Western leader to offer Ukraine lethal aid when he gave Zelensky Javelin missiles in 2018 – an idea outright rejected by his Democratic predecessor Barack Obama.

And it is Trump who has ensured that Europe has the largest number of American players on the ground, even as he fought to ensure that European NATO members would benefit financially.

The past months of war have exhausted both sides. Russia has lost momentum, and the introduction of 11,000 North Korean troops – necessary because Putin refuses to employ the sons of the Moscow elite and the siloviki – shows desperation.

Ukraine’s manpower shortage is even worse, and both sides are heading toward what in chess is called Zugzwang, or “a forced move,” where the player forced to move can only make his own situation worse to make.

Those who say the new US president will sell out Zelensky are missing two crucial points: the Ukrainian president will have the final say, and Trump wants peace on his terms, not Russia’s – he wants a trophy.

The thought of Ukraine being presented with a plan to let go of the conquered and ethnically Russian territories of Crimea, Donbas and Donetsk may seem like an appeasement for a ruthless invader.

But this already forms the basis of Zelensky’s dream outcome.

An East Germany-style split of Ukraine would leave a country with its sovereignty intact and the reward would be accession to EU membership and eventually NATO.

Such a proposal would leave Putin, who wants Ukraine to remain a neutral buffer zone, as an obstructionist.

And it is here that both Zelensky and Trump would play their hand.

Zelensky has increased power after Ukraine’s Kursk offensive on mainland Russia. And those who believe Trump will take over Putin’s role are overestimating the influence the Russian prime minister could have.

As Sir Laurie Bristow – the British ambassador to Russia at the time of the 2015 Salisbury poisonings – said in an interview with the Sunday Express in September: “Putin once had very high expectations of Trump, but those expectations were largely dashed when he realized he couldn’t manipulate Trump as much as he thought he could.”

And Trump has already rejected Russia’s own plan.

It is far more likely that he could threaten an expansion of US aid to Ukraine and a devastating economic war against Russia if Putin were to reject the deal.

One way to make this threat credible is to allow Ukraine to launch US long-range missiles at Russia.

And he could face Republican opposition if he offered help in the form of a loan — World War II-style aid that would eventually be repaid.

Much work has already been done on this front in Congress to calm reluctant Republicans, and it’s an idea that Trump has publicly supported.

It is too early to regret the fate of Ukraine. Trump may still have a card or two in his hand.