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Bet smart on the glorious return of world champion Pip Toledo!

In a move that will surprise surfers and BeachGrit readers, bookmakers have cast world champion Filipe Toledo as one of the six top favorites for Olympic gold in Teahupoo.

The market expects Gabriel Medina to win (3-1), followed by John John Florence (4-1), Jack Robinson (4.90-1), Kauli Vaast (8-1), Griffin Colapinto (14-1) and Filipe Toledo at 26-1.

Toledo, a twenty-nine-year-old father of two and holder of two world titles, has long had a difficult relationship with the Tahitian left-hander, like this writer, five campaigns, zero tubes. You will remember, a month ago, when the king of surf journalists, Nick Carroll of Surfline, openly declared that Filipe Toledo should give up his Olympic spot to Italo Ferreira.

“Italo…he went from poverty to world title, won the first surfing Olympics, fought with form and disillusionment, and just won the best race since that title in Pipe. Vahine is now the clear favorite for the upcoming Games, which is actually her home breakthrough. Maybe Filipe should give Italo his place.”

The bookies clearly think otherwise and predict at least a top six finish for Filipe Toledo. He has not played since withdrawing from the Pipeline event in February after his humiliating first round loss and relegation to the elimination round.

Toledo later withdrew from the event and later the tour, citing an unspecified “illness.”

Other surprises include Australia’s Ethan Ewing (34-1), Joao Chianca (29-1), Japan’s Kanoa Igarashi (46-1) and Germany’s Tim Elter (126-1).

There are no surprises among the ladies.

The market favours local brands such as Vahine Fierro (4-1), Caz Marks (5.50-1), Caity Simmers, Tatiana Weston-Webb and Brisa Hennessy, all at 7.50.

Smart bet?

Well, there’s no such thing, but if you have money to lose, throw a c-note to Ethan and Caity for profit.

The surfing competition at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games in Teahupoo, Tahiti is expected to take place from July 27 to August 4, 2024.

This is how the contest works:

Round 1:
Eight heats with three surfers each.
The winner of each round advances directly to round 3.
The other two surfers advance to round 2.

Round 2:
Eight heats with two surfers.
The winner of each round advances to round 3.

Round 3:
Sixteen surfers compete in eight heats of two surfers each.
The winner of each round advances to the quarterfinals.

Quarterfinals:
Eight surfers compete in four heats of two surfers each.
The winner of each round advances to the semi-finals.

Semi-finals:
Four surfers compete in two heats of two surfers each.
The winner of each series advances to the gold medal match, and the losers compete for the bronze medal.

Final:
Two surfers compete for the gold medal.
Two surfers compete for the bronze.

WOMEN’S SURFING HEAT DRAW FOR PARIS 2024

Series 1: Yolanda Hopkins (POR), Caroline Marks (US), Sarah Baum (RSA)
Heat 2: Sol Aguirre (PER), Janire Etxabarri (ESP), Vahine Fierro (FRA)
Heat 3: Anat Lelior (ISR), Sanoa Dempfle-Olin (CAN), Tyler Wright (AUS)
Heat 4: Tatiana Weston-Webb (BRA), Molly Picklum (AUS), Caitlin Simmers (USA)
Series 5: Johanne Defay (FRA), Brisa Hennessy (CRC), Candelaria Resano (NCA)
Heat 6: Tainá Hinckel (BRA), Camila Kemp (GER), Luana Silva (BRA)
Heat 7: Nadia Erostarbe (ESP), Siqi Yang (CHN), Saffi Vette (NZL)
Series 8: Carissa Moore (US), Teresa Bonvalot (POR), Matsuda Shino (JPN)

MEN’S SURFING HEAT DRAW FOR PARIS 2024

Heat 1: Ethan Ewing (AUS), Tim Elter (GER), Jordy Smith (RSA)
Preliminary Round 2: Joan Duru (FRA), Jack Robinson (AUS), Matthew McGillivray (RSA)
Series 3: Alonso Correa (PER), Filipe Toledo (BRA), Kanoa Igarashi (JPN)
Heat 4: Gabriel Medina (BRA), Connor O’Leary (JPN), Bryan Perez (ESA)
Series 5: Ramzi Boukhiam (MAR), Billy Stairmand (NZL), João Chianca (BRA)
Heat 6: Andy Criere (ESP), John John Florence (USA), Alan Cleland (MAR)
Heat 7: Kauli Vaast (FRA), Lucca Mesinas (PER), Griffin Colapinto (USA)
Series 8: Rio Waida (INA), Leonardo Fioravanti (ITA), Inaba Reo (JPN)