UFC Fight Night Whittaker vs. Aliskerov: odds, picks, predictions and best bets

UFC best bets

For this week’s best UFC bets, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is hosting UFC Fight Night with a main event that has recently been changed due to original competitor Khamzat Chimaev being quite ill and unable to compete. Robert Whittaker will now face Russia’s Ikram Aliskerov, who was scheduled to fight in the co-main event of last week’s APEX event.

*Special Note: This fight card starts EARLY in the United States with preliminary action starting at 9:00 AM PT and the main card starting at 12:00 PM PT.

I appreciate the UFC for their tenacity. They are adept at dealing with fighter changes, suspensions, injuries and other idiosyncrasies while continuing to present viable ten to fourteen fight productions almost every week.

A rare favorite release was lost last week when Garret Armfield looked powerful early in his fight against Brady Heistand, then lost energy as Heistand fought the best two rounds of his career and ultimately submitted Armfield in the third round.

Digital result this year: 14-12 +4.98 hours

Let’s take a look at some of the fights from Riyadh.

Robert Whittaker -145 vs. Ikram Aliskerov +124

Middleweight (185 pounds) main event

Aliskerov, 15-1 professionally and 2-0 in the UFC, arrives at this main event with two UFC fights under his belt. He’s shy in terms of UFC experience, steps up significantly in opponent class and has to travel all over the world to make this fight. Aliskerov’s only professional loss came years ago to the aforementioned Chimaev.

In this matchup, he makes the transition from battling a Brazilian foe who hasn’t competed since late 2021 to the number three middleweight and former champion of the division, who has faced elite opponents throughout his twelve years in the UFC .

Adding to the complexity of this fight, Aliskerov will have to travel the world and make another aggressive weight cut, having had last week’s fight canceled just days before the event. Aliskerov is a remarkably similar opponent for Whittaker to Chimaev. He uses solid striking behind an aggressive, forward wrestling/wrestling attack. For Whittaker, he won’t have to change much in this short time frame to effectively prepare for this new opponent.

The same cannot be said for Aliskerov, who rises to prominence fighting Whittaker but now has to step into the octagon and fight an elite, well-rounded finisher in a scheduled five-round fight while he was training for three. As soon as the bell sounds for the first round, I see Aliskerov trying to push Whittaker back and force him to defend Aliskerov’s wrestling. His goal is to sap Whittaker’s energy by pressuring him and forcing him to defend wrestling’s progress.

However, Whittaker has been in the cage with every kind of diverse fighter in his career, including elite wrestling talents. He will be unfazed and prepared for Aliskerov’s aggressive approach, tactics and left-handed stance.

Whittaker opened -180 for this fight, a number I considered reasonable in this situation if I wasn’t showing Aliskerov too much respect. Money came to Aliskerov immediately, which was frankly stunning. Ultimately, this line dropped to Whittaker -135, at which point the buyback (much of it from ‘Bout Business Podcast followers) arrived on the former champion.

Currently the number is at Whittaker -148, which in my opinion is still an extremely attractive price for Whittaker.

I find it hard to believe that Aliskerov, who is preparing to be a completely different style of athlete than Whittaker and an athlete who now has to travel all over the world to compete in a scheduled five-round fight when he was prepared for three , is mentally prepared in the right way. and physically to handle this situation successfully.

By taking this fight, Aliskerov is endearing himself to the UFC for saving this main event in Riyadh. Regardless of Saturday’s outcome, Aliskerov has endeared himself to the UFC as a corporate player, and the UFC will look after him regardless of the outcome of this fight in the form of future opportunities to shine.

UFC best bet: Whittaker -145

Total in this fight: R2.5. More than -160

UFC best bet: lean forward

Sergei Pavlovich -225 vs. Alexander Volkov +185

Heavyweight (265 pounds) co-main event

Riyadh gets a pair of Russian heavyweights from the top five who, incidentally, trained together in the co-main event.

Fifth-ranked and experienced UFC athlete Volkov, a black belt in Tsu Shin Gen, a brown belt in Kyokushin Karate and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, fought in numerous organizations before joining the UFC. In UFC competition, Volkov has compiled an 11-4 record and won his last three straight via finishes following a loss to Tom Aspinal in March 2022.

Standing 6 feet tall, Volkov prefers to keep his fights standing and challenge enemies by using his striking skills. These skills are complemented by the fact that he almost always has height and reach advantages over opponents.

Volkov can be vulnerable against determined, powerful grapplers/wrestlers who are adamant about invading Volkov’s distance, striking to gain pocket position and then grappling him, then attempting to force the giant against the cage or to the mat where its size, length and striking are muted.

Enter Sergei Pavlovich, an 18-2 Greco-Roman wrestling-based athlete who is ultra-aggressive, explosive, powerful and determined to put enemies on the ground, gain top position and dish out damage on them.

Pavlovich won five consecutive heavyweight fights before being dominated by Tom Aspinall in his last fight. In that fight, Pavlovich was exposed as he was no match for Aspinall’s mental toughness, nimble feet, speed and power.

This tough outcome will be determined by how man can manipulate the battle to his advantage. Volkov should take a boxing/kickboxing approach, peppering the incoming Pavlovich with elbows, knees and punches. Pavlovich will try to gain an inside position on Volkov. From there, he can nullify Volkov’s punching/kicking ability and then launch his own attack by unleashing furious body and head attacks.

I think Pavlovich is a typical front-running fighter. He will look to finish Volkov early in this fight. However, if he can’t do this and this fight goes into the second round, his abundance of physical output compromises his mental toughness as he tires quickly in that bulky frame.

The Volkov plan revolves around space, distance and IQ. He should be able to weather those furious first few minutes and then use his guile to force Pavlovich to defend and back up, where Volkov can use his size and length to block the powerful, barrel-chested striker to damage.

Volkov’s experience, cardio, length and effective striking can be synchronized to get a win, but only after he survives Pavlovich’s perhaps poor first few minutes.

Totally in this fight 1.5 Rds under -130

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop early Friday morning Pacific Time with more UFC best bets as the weigh-ins for this card take place Thursday night at 11:00 PM PT. Enjoy the battles and thanks for reading!