UFC Denver Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup

UFC Denver is unique in that most of its betting lines are either a coin flip or so wide that Vegas believes there will be one clear winner. We can use this kind of binary with analysis that allows us to separate competitors in the close bouts while looking for underdogs where we can find them in the blowouts. Our leans this week include a perpetually underrated flyweight as well as a debuting fighter who looks to have all the skills necessary to be successful. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.

Plays to Consider on DraftKings

While the line here (-400) seems a bit steep for someone who hasn’t stepped in the cage for nearly a year, Elder took big steps forward in his fight with Genaro Valdez, showing a stiff jab, nice bodywork, and good defensive movement. Darrius Flowers is a solid kickboxer but he was taken down four times by someone who rarely chooses to grapple offensively in Michael Johnson. This shows that Elder should have a ready-made escape hatch if he gets into trouble on the feet.

It’s always a bit uncertain when a debutant enters a card without much fanfare, but Fatima Kline’s performance on the regional scene was impressive. “The Archangel” is light on her feet from range, delivers precise strikes, and is a skilled control/submission grappler once the fight hits the mat. Jasmine Jasudavicius’s lack of speed makes her vulnerable from a distance, and while she may have a slight strength advantage, I believe the skill gap is too wide to predict anything but a Kline victory.

Back-to-back uninspiring performances from Petroski is likely the reason the fight is so closely lined, but I just don’t see Josh Fremd performing well against an opponent who is going to be committed to grappling from the opening bell. Fremd not only holds an abysmal 31 percent takedown defense rate, but we’ve seen him crumble when fighters apply consistent pressure. A height and reach advantage may prevent Fremd from getting steamrolled, but it shouldn’t be long until Petroski gets this fight where he wants it.

While not quite as relentless as Petroski, Santos will stalk her opponents and throw big shots when she can close down the space. We have seen Mariya Agapova get absolutely exhausted in previous fights, and Santos will effortlessly mix her striking and grappling to push a pace on her opponents. Agapova is dangerous from kickboxing range, but the fact that she has been taken down at least twice in each of her last three losses doesn’t inspire confidence that she will be able to stay upright against a determined opponent.

Knockout props will almost certainly be the preferred way to play the fight between Silva and Drew Dober in the betting community. Still, I believe we get more value here, as Silva has an active grappling game, and Dober has been grounded at least three times in five of his UFC fights. We’ve seen how hard it is to hurt Dober even when hit clean, so Silva would do well to take the path of least resistance. This will not only help him pile up points but also notch a win over an elite division gatekeeper.

Plays to Consider on Prize Picks – Significant Strikes

Muslim Salikhov OVER 41.5 Significant Strikes, Rose Namajunas OVER 87.5 Significant Strikes, and Christian Rodriguez UNDER 57.5 Significant Strikes

The line on Salikhov seems to suggest either an early finish or a grapple-heavy gameplan. The problem is that “The King of Kung Fu” has recorded just one KO/TKO in his last four wins and averages just 1.3 takedowns per 15 minutes of cage time. Add in the fact that Santiago Ponzinibbio’s knockout of Alex Morono was his first since 2018, and it begins to look like we will see a kickboxing match for the better part of 15 minutes. Our strategy of picking the lesser strike total in a standup fight netted us an easy win at UFC 303 with Andrei Arlovski, and I believe we will see similar results here.

Namajunas can get caught using her footwork to be too defensive against certain opponents, but she likely won’t have that option against Tracy Cortez, who marches headlong into opponents to the tune of over four strikes landed per minute. “Thug Rose” should have a field day against an opponent who wants to bring a striking match to her, as she will be able to cut angles and land counter shots over five rounds. While Cortez will likely attempt a wrestling attack at some point, the speed advantage Rose possesses should allow her to stay safe in space.

Christian Rodriguez will likely be thrilled to face a striker in Julian Erosa, as four of his five UFC opponents have tried to grapple almost exclusively. While Erosa does have a wrestling game, he is more of an opportunistic submission hunter than a top-control artist, and Rodriguez has shown an incredible ability to scramble back to his feet. It’s not often I angle for knockouts when predicting these lines, but it’s hard for me to believe that two big swingers like “Juicy J” and Rodriguez will get very far before one finds a finish.

Plays to Consider on Prize Picks – Fight Time

Gabriel Bonfim UNDER 10.0 Minutes of Fight Time and Abdul Razak Alhassan UNDER 6.25 Minutes of Fight Time

I noted ahead of Ange Loosa’s fight against Bryan Battle how “The Ninja Warrior” seemingly gets wobbled by a hard shot every time he steps in the cage. The pattern was playing out again before the bout was ruled a no-contest due to an accidental foul. Bonfim hits incredibly hard and while his wrestling defense has held up in spots, it’s unlikely that he would be able to deal with Loosa’s submission grappling if the fight hits the ground. In either case, players should be prepared for a short bout.

Razak Alhassan isn’t quite the dominating force we saw when he first entered the organization, but he only tends to struggle when an opponent can match him for power or speed. Cody Brundage does not come anywhere close to satisfying these criteria, and though he can be a powerful wrestler, we have seen him get discouraged way too often to bet that he sticks to a game plan.

Bets to Consider

We’re shooting for the moon here, but even my most grandiose predictions come with sound reasoning. In this case, we have an opponent in Joshua Van, who loves a firefight. So much so that he has absorbed a staggering 5.77 significant strikes per minute in his three UFC fights. Johnson has been hard to hurt throughout his UFC tenure and can control a fight, whether retreating or applying pressure. Though he has only secured one finish in the UFC, Johnson’s power has been on display of late, such as when he knocked down Jake Hadley in the second round of their bout in May. With just one loss on his record (via submission), Van still fights like he can’t be hurt, which could come back to bite him here.

While not quite as ambitious as our play above, there is plenty of meat on the bone here, made viable because Blackshear is the most well-rounded opponent Montel Jackson has faced inside the Octagon. We saw “Quik” struggle for long portions of his fight with Julio Arce, and while he did eventually get the job done, I can’t help but wonder what happens when he faces someone considerably more athletic. This will likely lead to Jackson forcing wrestling exchanges against a man who has won 8 of his 14 professional MMA fights by submission.