Trump’s cabinet choices could be complicated by math from the Republican Party in the House of Representatives

CNN
—

Many Republicans in the House of Representatives are privately vying for newly elected President Donald Trump’s cabinet. There’s one big problem: Speaker Mike Johnson can’t afford to lose his votes in the next Congress.

GOP leaders in Congress are signaling that Trump can’t take any more of their members after Trump on Monday named longtime loyalist New York Rep. Elise Stefanik as U.N. ambassador and tapped Florida Rep. Mike Waltz to serve as his national security adviser.

At least a dozen other House members — including Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers and Transportation Chairman Sam Graves — have been discussed as other choices.

But even as the House GOP conference remains one of its strongest bases in Washington, top Republicans acknowledge that the Trump team won’t be able to poach many more of those lawmakers without risking Johnson losing control of what could still have a small majority in the elections. 2025. CNN has not yet projected control of the room.

“I think we have some really qualified people. But tactically, I wouldn’t want to bring us back to a one- or two-seat majority,” said Rep. Kelly Armstrong, who is leaving Congress in January to become governor of North Dakota.

“We have a lot of talent. There are a lot of people who would be really good at this,” he said. But, he added, referring to the speaker: “You have to give Mike some room to operate.”

Johnson himself has discussed the dilemma with Trump, saying he does not “expect” any more members to leave. The speaker told reporters on Tuesday that he has spoken about this “several times a day for the past few days.”

“President Trump fully understands and appreciates the math here, and it is just a numbers game,” Johnson said, adding that “every vote will count,” noting unavoidable absences such as serious injuries or illnesses or even a late flight.

After Republicans flipped the Senate last week, the exact composition of the next Congress is still unclear. Johnson and his leadership team are confident they will maintain their slim majority in the House of Representatives, but the question on most Republicans’ minds is how big their margin will be — an outcome that could determine Trump’s ability to expand further to thin their ranks. And several Republicans are privately warning that Trump’s incoming White House will have to be careful “not to cost us the majority by including too many people,” according to a person close to the Republican leadership.

With the selection of Stefanik, that would already be one vote less for Johnson at the beginning of 2025. And if Waltz takes on the role of national security adviser, it would further reduce the number of Republicans. Both lawmakers represent safe Republican districts, but their seats would not immediately be filled.

Trump’s transition team is keeping the narrow majority of the House of Representatives in mind as the newly elected president makes his choices. They believe that if Trump wants more members of the House of Representatives, he can “stagger” the special elections so that the majority is not vulnerable all at once.

“Trump will pick who he wants and who he thinks is the best person for the role,” one Trump adviser said. “There are ways to get around the majority question in the House of Representatives if it decides certain members are best for the job.”

Within the Republican Party, many lawmakers and senior aides long assumed Stefanik would move to the Cabinet. She and Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson, Trump’s former doctor, is considered one of the closest ties between Trump and the Republican Party in the House of Representatives.

Waltz, a combat-decorated Green Beret who served in Afghanistan, the Middle East and Africa, is a Trump loyalist but also served as a policy adviser in the George W. Bush administration.

And there are several other Republicans close to Trump who would privately like to join his second Cabinet.

In Florida alone, about a quarter of the state’s congressional delegation has fled. In addition to Waltz, Reps. Matt Gaetz, Brian Mast, Byron Donalds, Carlos Gimenez and Greg Steube have all been mentioned as potential picks. And privately, Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Cory Mills have also expressed interest, according to a Florida GOP source.

The replacement process is a little easier in Florida, because GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis could call a special election within weeks.

But at the same time, Johnson will want to keep as many seats as possible, a source familiar with the matter told CNN, adding that Trump’s move to appoint Stefanik as UN ambassador could influence the newly elected president’s decision-making if it’s about adding other House Republicans to his administration.

Ultimately, the transition process remains a “black box” for many lawmakers in the House of Representatives who say they are willing to serve if called upon.

There is another option: Trump could poach from the list of Republicans in the House of Representatives who are already planning to leave Congress in 2025. This includes Rep. Garret Graves of Louisiana, who has been introduced as Secretary of Transportation, and Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana, who has been proposed as Secretary of Transportation. has been discussed as an option to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Trump also has options in the Senate, with CNN reporting Monday evening that he will likely choose Senator Marco Rubio of Florida as secretary of state. But even there his team is limited by mathematics. With CNN not yet predicting races in Pennsylvania and Arizona, Republicans will have at least 52 seats in the House.

About half a dozen GOP senators have been discussed as possible nominees, including Senators Bill Hagerty of Tennessee and Mike Lee of Utah. At least two, Sens. Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Eric Schmitt of Missouri have had their names withdrawn from consideration.

CNN’s Alayna Treene and Zachary Cohen contributed to this report.