Tropical Storm Sara shows that the hurricane season is not over yet

SAVANNAH, Ga. (AP) — Tropical Storm Sara is the third named storm to emerge in November, reminding us that the Atlantic hurricane season isn’t quite over yet.

Sara formed in the western Caribbean Sea before making landfall on Honduras’ northern coast on Thursday, dumping torrential rains during a slow weekend sweep across parts of Central America. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm could dump up to 40 inches (101.6 centimeters) of rain in some areas and is expected to move across Belize on Sunday before dissipating over the Yucatan Peninsula early Monday.

Sara is tracking two other named storms so far this month. Tropical Storm Patty brought heavy rain to the Azores and disappeared without hitting land. Than Hurricane Rafael struck Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before barreling into Cuba as a Category 3 storm.

That has made for an unusually active last month of the hurricane season, when forecasters typically see a single named storm every year or two. And the 2024 season still has two weeks to go.

Here are some things you need to know about hurricanes in November.

Why does hurricane season usually end in November?

The hurricane season for storms in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

While said storms are known to form before and after that six-month period, hurricane season reflects the months when weather conditions are more favorable for producing tropical storms and hurricanes.

The temperature of the oceans must be at least 26 degrees Celsius to fuel hurricanes. Hurricane season is also when the upper atmosphere tends to have reduced wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction that tear hurricanes apart.

Those hostile winds tend to increase later in the fall, making it harder for November storms to form, said Levi Silvers, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.

“We have the water temperatures that make these storms possible,” Silvers said. “But it is becoming increasingly unlikely that we will get the favorable winds.”

How unusual are hurricanes in November?

Based on the 30-year period from 1991 to 2020, November typically sees a tropical storm every year or two. Storms that become hurricanes are rarer during the last month of the season and typically occur every two years, according to the hurricane center.

Since 1851, a total of 125 tropical storms have been recorded in November, said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. About half of those storms, 63, became hurricanes. And 12 strengthened into major hurricanes with winds exceeding 110 mph (177 kph).

Earlier this month, Rafael forced the evacuation of 283,000 people in Cuba and destroyed 460 homes. It was the first November hurricane in the Atlantic Basin since 2022, when the season ended with three storms. One of them, Hurricane Nicole, became the first November hurricane to make landfall in Florida since 1985.

Only two other November hurricanes are known to have struck the US, in 1861 and in 1935. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

What are some notable November storms?

Since 1953, there have been seven November hurricanes that were devastating enough to drop their names, McNoldy said.

The last were hurricanes Eta And Jota, both Category 4 storms when they hit Nicaragua’s Caribbean coast two weeks apart in November 2020. The successive hurricanes were blamed for a total of 239 deaths and $8.2 billion in damage across Central America.

They struck at the end of the most active hurricane season on record with 30 named storms. Due to the busy 2020 season, the year’s alphabetical list of storm names was exhausted by mid-September. Later storms, including Eta and Iota, were identified using Greek letters.

Other destructive hurricanes in November whose names were retired included Otto in 2016, Paloma in 2008, Noel in 2007, Michelle in 2001 and Lenny in 1999, according to McNoldy.

Does climate change increase the threat of hurricanes?

There have been eighteen named storms since 2000 that formed outside the official hurricane season, either before June or after November. One of these, Hurricane Alex, rolled around on January 12, 2016.

Does this mean that human-induced climate change will extend the hurricane season?

“The role I could see playing in extending the limits of the traditional hurricane season is ocean warming,” said McNoldy, noting that sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are unusually warm until mid-November stayed.

However, scientists still have unanswered questions about how climate change might affect seasonal wind shear patterns that tend to keep tropical cyclones at bay outside the official hurricane season, Silvers said.

“The idea that we’re seeing more hurricanes because of climate change is still quite controversial,” Silvers said. “I think what seems clear is that we’ve had a lot of high-impact hurricanes and also rapidly intensifying hurricanes. It may be that because of climate change you will not have more hurricanes, but rather stronger hurricanes.”