Trade candidate breakdown for Twins: Willi Castro – Twins

What’s going on with Willi Castro?
The Twins signed Willi Castro to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training in 2023, and he has rewarded them with almost mundane play: 282 games of above-average production over the past two seasons. He has 5.6 fWAR in those two seasons, more than every Twins hitter except Carlos Correa. When you factor in his $1.8 million salary in 2023 and just a $3.3 million payday in his 2024 All-Star campaign, it’s easy to suggest he’s been this front office’s best signing from a value per pound point of view.

But as he enters his final year of arbitration control, Castro is expected to rake in somewhere in the neighborhood of $6.2 million (as predicted by MLB Trade Rumors). If he’s the player we saw in the first half of last season, it’s easy to put him in the blueprint for 2025. But his poor second half (in which he hit .219/.298/.329, good for an 82 wRC+) makes it a riskier decision, especially given the logjam of position players in the organization already established in the major leagues or on the door knocking for a promotion.

The arguments for trading Willi Castro
That leads to some indications that the Twins could move to send Castro to another organization while his market value is still relatively positive. Not only could the Twins gain salary relief by replacing his projected salary with someone who makes the league minimum (like Brooks Lee), but they could even earn a modest return. Would the Twins get a chance at one year of control over Castro? Certainly not, but it’s not out of the question that they could get something intriguing for someone who plays multiple positions (more on that later) and was an All Star last year.
If the Twins are confident some of their younger pieces will fill Catro’s shoes, this could be a good time to dive right into that long-term plan. Lee could fill all the on-field positions entrusted to Castro in recent years, and Austin Martin (or even an outside hire at a better salary) could theoretically handle his on-field duties.

Exploring teams could be interested in Castro as an everyday utility player, as he has been so far with the Twins, or they could even look to slot him into a defensive home if they have a specific need. The versatile utility player started at least 20 games in left field, center field and at every infield position other than first base. While he didn’t raise an eyebrow at any position, he mostly held his own at each station.

Castro probably wouldn’t need an exorbitant return package, especially if the acquisition team eats that salary. If the Twins can find a way to get rid of the roughly $6 million Castro will make (likely in addition to another move to lose the salary owed to someone like Christian Vázquez or Chris Paddack), they might have just enough wiggle room to take one step at a time. of their needs. It would put a lot of trust in less experienced young players, but given the circumstances it could be for the best.

Similar transactions from the past
There have been a number of transactions in recent years that have paralleled these types of moves. The Twins traded Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels after tendering him a contract for his final year of arbitration in the offseason before the 2023 campaign. Like Castro, Urshela could be trusted with multiple positions (although not nearly as many as Castro) , and would make about $8 million. Instead, the Twins sent him to Anaheim for Alejandro Hidalgo, who was then 19 years old at High-A, and for the ever-important salary cut.

That same day, the Twins found themselves on the other side of that coin when they traded for Kyle Farmer, who was seen as a capable stopgap at shortstop when needed, or ideally a bench option who could play elsewhere around the diamond. They gave up Casey Legumina, who was a fringe top-30 organizer at the time. While these moves were made simultaneously, they each represent a decent comparison of what we can expect in a potential Castro deal given his positional flexibility and the salary that would be exchanged.

Potential trading partners
Due to a lack of options at a few positions on the free agent market, Castro could be an attractive option for teams with more cap space to spend and a specific hole to try to fill. He provides offensive upside on both ends of the field (especially as a right-hander) and wasn’t a threat on the bases until 2023. Keep these teams in mind as we look for a club that could be interested in Castro for his contract year.

Boston RedSox
Like the Twins, the Red Sox couldn’t find their footing in the second half and should bounce back in 2025. But unlike the Twins, the Sox have plenty of spending room, as they are about $50 million short of last year’s payroll. without any indication that they have been ordered to scale back. Castro probably wouldn’t be their priority this winter, but he would be an improvement over internal candidates like infielders David Hamilton and Nick Sogard.

Could the Twins try to land Castro along with former Sox fan favorite Vázquez in a bigger deal that provides significant payroll relief?

Toronto blue jays
Another AL East team that found itself in a disappointing spot at the end of the season is our friends north of the border in Toronto. It’s a pivotal year for the club as their two superstar players, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., are both entering their contract years. If they want to make some noise as a contending team, they’ll want an improvement over their projected starters at third base (Ernie Clement) and in left field (Nathan Lukes).

Perhaps the Twins could try to get a tempting (albeit flawed) option in return, like Dillon Tate (4.66 ERA in 2024, two more years of club control) or Brendon Little (4.27 ERA over 46 ⅓ MLB innings over the past two years ). years, with a minimum salary).

Houston Astros
The AL West powerhouse will likely be quite active this winter, as they have significant holes at third base (assuming they don’t re-sign superstar Alex Bregman) and in the outfield, aside from Kyle Tucker. They will also have about $30 million to play with just to reach their 2024 salary level. Castro could give them a starting-caliber option at any of these positions, or could be a lethal platoon and pinch-running option for a slow, top-heavy offense.

Can the Twins ask about former top global prospect Forrest Whitley, now a 27-year-old who has struggled with injuries over the past four years? Should Minnesota throw another kicker besides Castro to get over the finish line?

New York Yankees
The reigning AL champions are about to lose both Juan Soto and Gleyber Torres to free agency, and while they will certainly try to keep the former in the fold, the Yankees could see Castro as a suitable (albeit partial ) replacement for the latter. Castro would provide them with much-needed speed and defensive versatility, which could entice the Bombers if they want to keep Giancarlo Stanton as permanent designated hitter or move Aaron Judge out of center field.

With the Soto sweepstakes likely to drag on for a while, Castro’s matchup with the Yankees may not become clear until later in the winter, but it’s always smart to expect the deep-pocketed clubs to rake in more than they need on the surface.

Conclusions
A trade for Castro likely comes down to two factors: how much salary could the club stand to lose in such a move, and how much confidence do the Twins have in his potential replacements? There’s plenty to balance as the team makes their deliberations, but regardless, Castro has been an incredible value since signing that minor league deal. Can the Twins squeeze a little more value out of him?

What do you think? Should the Twins look to move Willi Castro this offseason? How confident are you that the club can repeat its production in 2025? Let us know in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet.