This One Statistic Can Predict Your Average Score, Top Teacher Says

Welcome to Shaving Strokes, a series on GOLF.com where we share improvements, lessons and takeaways from amateur golfers like you, including some of the obstacles and challenges they faced along the way.

While I’m still a mid-handicapper, there’s one thing that has really improved my game: a better understanding of the importance of golf statistics. Just like your numbers on a launch monitor, knowing which parts of your game helped or hurt you during a round (or over a series of rounds) allows you to grind them out on the driving range.

For me it always comes down to two key statistics: the number of fairways hit and the number of putts per round.

If I can consistently avoid problems with my drives, I feel good about my round. If I can avoid three-putts, that’s even better.

But when you dig deeper into how stats can help your game better, there are a few that really stand out as differentiators — and GOLF Top 100 instructor Ed Oldham shares the one golf stat he finds most important, which can go a long way in predicting your overall score. Check out what Oldham has to say below.

Which golf statistic can help determine your average score?

“We’ve all heard the saying, ‘Drive for show and putt for dough,'” says Oldham. “But it turns out that neither driving nor putting has the most impact on your score. So which golf stat does that?”

Oldham refers to the book by stat guru Mark Broadie, Every shot countsIn the book, Broadie uses strokes gained to determine which statistics contribute most to score at all levels, with approach shots and greens in regulation having the greatest impact on your overall score.

“According to Broadie, tee shots have the second biggest impact on your score — so there’s no doubt that tee shots are important, but you can miss every fairway and still have a chance of a decent score,” Oldham added. “But if you miss every green? Well, that’s going to be a pretty long day. There’s even a formula to determine what your average score is likely to be once you know your greens in regulation stats. Simply take your average greens in regulation number and multiply it by two, then subtract that number from 95. The result is what your average score would be.”

Of course, the more greens you hit, the lower your score will be. So how can you hit more greens in regulation? Oldham shares his tips below.

How to Hit More Greens in Regulation

“To hit more greens you have to prioritize clubface, solid contact and make sure you select smarter targets,” says Oldham.

Because the clubface has the most influence on where the golf ball goes, Oldham recommends doing variable drills to learn clubface control. He suggests that each player spend a few minutes during each practice session hitting with a different clubface: one left, one right, one straight.

“Most amateurs need to understand how to improve their contact, which means hitting the ball in the middle of the clubface first and then hitting the ground,” says Oldham. “If you’re a player who hits the ground behind the ball, it’s beneficial to focus on hitting the ground on the target side of the ball during your training sessions.

“To do this, you need to stick a tee into the ground a few inches in front of the ball, making sure you hit the ball first and Than the tee. I even recommend spraying your clubface with Dr. Scholl’s foot spray to see where you actually hit the ball.”

Every golfer has a spread pattern on their approach shots. Oldham says understanding how to use that to your advantage will be a key differentiator when it comes to hitting more greens in regulation.

“Focus your pattern more on the center of the green and stop aiming for the pin. The longer the shot, the more you need to aim for the center of the green,” he says. “If you prioritize hitting more greens in regulation, you’ll see your scores go down and you’ll enjoy each round a lot more.”

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Nick Dimengo

Golf.com Editor