The Phillies playoff weather forecast looks good for NLDS games 1 and 2

Weather-wise, Major League Baseball couldn’t have picked a better October weekend in Philadelphia for a playoff series — and if you’re reading this, Nick Castellanos, please don’t forget your sunglasses.

Considering that both Saturday and Sunday games start at 4:08 p.m., the slanting sunlight streaming across the field could pose a particular challenge for right fielders at Citizens Bank Park.

Otherwise, the weather will be “fantastic,” said Patrick O’Hara, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, with no rain, temperatures mostly in the 70s and little wind.

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The dry spell in Philly will continue – this time without clouds

At least the persistence of an extended dry spell should be good for something: Forecasters see virtually no chance of rain during either match, or even a rain delay for the first two games in the National League Division Series. The Phillies will play the New York Mets, who defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 4-2 in Game 3 of their wild-card series.

Any rain would likely continue into the early morning hours of Monday, said Dave Dombek, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc.

And unlike recent gloomy days when winds blew from the cloud factory known as the Atlantic Ocean, skies will look clear over the weekend as winds will blow over dry landmasses, the weather service’s O’Hara said. .

Race temperatures are expected to be in the mid-70s on Saturday, about five degrees above normal for the date, and only a few degrees cooler on Sunday.

Does the weather affect the hitters?

With the scarcity of clouds, shadows can be an issue, “at least for the first half of the game,” says Paul Dorian, a meteorologist at Arcfield Weather, based in Valley Forge.

Shadows and lighting angles can be problematic for the outfielders, especially the right fielders, but it is uncertain whether they will affect the hitters.

The batter’s box is located in the shade of the bleachers on the third base side, as Citizens Bank Park is oriented north-northeast from home plate to center field. That’s close to what Major League Baseball calls the “desirable” orientation for keeping the sun out of batters’ faces.

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But do shadows give a thrower an advantage? A baseball prospectus analysis of postseason games in 2019 found that shadows meant no difference in terms of strikeout rates, a result that likely had a lot to do with the quality of the pitching.

Hitters may have a slight advantage Sunday, as light breezes in South Philly will blow from the south toward center field at 5 or 6 mph, according to the weather service.

Alan Nathan, a physicist who chaired the Major League Baseball committee that examined the 2017-2019 home run binge, has noted that a wind of just 5 miles per hour can make a difference of 15 to 20 feet in the flight of a baseball. .

Dorian, who publishes a ‘Home Run Factor’ index that uses a scale of 1 to 10 to assess how park and atmospheric factors can affect ball flight for a given game, says that by mid-week it looked unlikely is that the weather was a big player this weekend. Because the air will be on the dry side, it will be less buoyant than if the air holds more moisture on hot summer days.

Zack Wheeler, who will start for the Phillies on Saturday, and his counterpart from the other team, will have the benefit of a light breeze – again 5 to 6 mph – from the north at his back.

And there’s probably another factor keeping the run totals up, Dorian said: “Wheeler is pitching.”