The Kansas City Chiefs have a razor-thin margin for error after Rashee Rice’s injury

The Kansas City Chiefs may be fans of replays as they ramp up their 2023 season.

Yes, it’s 4-0. Yes, Andy Reid is still the head coach and Patrick Mahomes is still under center. This team may still be sleepwalking through a division where Gardner Minshew and a rookie QB are starting for two of the other three teams.

This isn’t just about the Chiefs winning the division, though. It’s about making a championship run, and so far the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t looked Super Bowl-worthy. Now they face an ever-increasing hurdle, with Rashee Rice sidelined for an extended period of time. Rice went down trying to make a play on a Mahomes interception, and the prognosis doesn’t look great:

This is the third major offensive piece the Chiefs have lost in a long time, joining RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Hollywood Brown. The margin for error on this offense is razor thin, something this particular version of the Chiefs doesn’t need.

Rice essentially stepped into the role of TE Travis Kelce as Kelce got back into game shape. Heading into their lead against the Chargers, Rice was fifth in the league in targets and ninth in the then-NFL in EPA per target among receivers with 20 or more targets. He was targeted when the Chiefs ran their offense with this efficient buzzsaw underneath, targeting teams with crossing routes and shallow targets for Rice and Kelce.

Still, the offense just seemed sluggish this season. For a team that should be shooting more down the field and being more aggressive, it didn’t really seem that way. Patrick Mahomes’ 5.4 Air Yards per attempt is 33rd among qualifying QBs, behind Minshew and Browns’ QB Deshaun Watson. Mahomes is still in the top 10 in success rate, but this offense looks so tough at times.

Mahomes has felt down this season, forcing throws or putting pressure on himself (Mahomes’ sack count is the most in four games since 2021, according to Sports Information Solutions). The receivers still felt disjointed by this offense, aside from the random Xavier Worthy lightning bolt like we saw on Sunday’s touchdown against the Chargers. However, we don’t really see those goals in the field in attack. They feel tied to the RPO, and without Rice to win after the catch, they will have to rely on Worthy and Kelce to create after the catch. They can, but the margin for error is much smaller without Rice in the lineup.

Things might still be going well for the Chiefs! If there’s anyone I trust to find answers within the struggles of their offense, it’s Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. However, this offense seemed very inefficient to start the year, like a team playing with a Super Bowl hangover. The defense is still great and could hold them in games until they get healthy or the offense finds out (much like we saw the 2023 season play out for KC). Yet this season feels a little different. It feels like Mahomes looks mortal, which narrows the margin for error.

There are still solutions built into this crime. The Worthy touchdown could become something they can move towards, using half throws and play action to attack teams vertically. Now that they’ve expanded the offensive line, getting consistent RB play in place of Pacheco will help loosen up defenses gearing up to defend the pass. Using Worthy on the crossing routes that Rice used to run will give this team a bigger speed threat after the catch and force teams to keep track of the rookie across the field and not just downfield.

The biggest is obviously Travis Kelce. Kelce had his best game of the year on Sunday, with seven receptions and 89 yards on nine targets, leading the team in receptions and targets. Getting Kelce going with Rice out will be huge with the easy buttons on offense still in place (hopefully). Again, Mahomes and Reid still around will be the ultimate force multiplier.

Despite not having Rice or Pacheco, the Chiefs will be fine, right?

Right?