The Case for Anthony Richardson as Fantasy Football QB1

Anthony Richardson is typically drafted as a QB5 or QB6, but he’s my highest-ranked fantasy quarterback for 2024.

Fantasy points per dropback is one of the best indicators of the future, and Richardson just logged the most FP/DB since Lamar Jackson’s historic 2019 season. Richardson averaged 29.2 fantasy points per four quarters (the most ever) as a rookie and tied C.J. Stroud in weekly top-five finishes despite missing most of the season. Richardson continued to show a strong ability to avoid sacks like he did in college, putting up 8.1 YPA over his last two games.

The Fantasy QB Paradox

Of course, Richardson’s incredible rushing ability is his fantasy cheat code — last year, his full-season rushing pace would have led all quarterbacks in rushing yards (925), rushing TDs (26!), attempts (170) and designed runs (111). He had three carries inside the five-yard line (and ranked in the top 20 in red-zone rush attempts among QBs on the season) through 10 quarters of action. AR averaged an NFL-high 7.0 YPC on designed runs and has no plans to change his playing style in Year Two.

Richardson is in the fantasy sweet spot of his career, as there is no way he is going to run as much as he eventually develops into a better passer/processor. In other words, while Richardson will certainly become a better QB for the Colts in the future, this is what a fantasy apex could look like (48% of his fantasy production came from running as a rookie!).

Risk of injury

Richardson has been dealing with some lingering shoulder soreness during OTAs, but the good news is that he’s been fully utilized in training camp so far, as expected. He’s 6’3” and now tips the scales at 250 pounds after putting on some serious muscle this offseason. That’s 30 pounds heavier than the average 14” NFL quarterback. At 22 years old, Richardson is literally an athlete the QB position has never seen before.

All running quarterbacks carry additional health risks (which go hand in hand with greater fantasy potential), and Richardson’s ADP is baked into an ADP that’s two to three rounds behind lower-ceiling QBs (more on that later).

Given his running, it’s easy to predict that Richardson will score the most fantasy points per game among QBs this season, so health is the key consideration here. It can’t be stressed enough how much of a risk every player is for real-world injury when we’re talking about health and trying to predict future injuries. There is an opportunity cost to Richardson’s ADP, but he’s not a particularly early pick like De’Von Achane, and the replacement value will be there.

If Richardson misses every game between the weeks of the league-winning spikes, quarterback is the easiest position to add depth at (assuming it’s not a superflex). There’s a player who just posted the best YPA season in NFL history in an offense projected to score the most points in the league who isn’t drafted as a top-12 fantasy QB in many leagues, and there’s a rookie with top-five upside going even later. Quarterback has never been deeper.

Furthermore, players who are ‘injury prone’ do not always remain injury prone.

Concerns about small sample sizes

All those impressive stats admittedly came in a small sample size, but AR is planning to keep running and is positioned to succeed. Shane Steichen is a QB whisperer (Gardner Minshew isn’t good), and the Colts play indoors and were top-five in plays per game (69.7) with Richardson last season. Indianapolis has one of the league’s best offensive lines, a star at running back and is quietly loaded at wide receiver.

Receiver perception is extremely high for both Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Pittman is taken very early in fantasy drafts, while Downs was held back by injuries last year and Minshew is underrated. Rookie Adonai Mitchell slipped in the draft, presumably due to character issues, but the Colts now have another first-round talent in their wide receiver room. Tight end Jelanie Woods has impressed in camp and is another great athlete for Richardson to target.

Richardson already had impressive sack avoidance skills, and he’ll improve his handling ability in his second year in the league. He gained meaningful experience even while sitting out last year, and it’s important to remember that Richardson only turned 22 two weeks ago.

He’s six months younger than Caleb Williams!

The Fantasy Competition

Richardson is at risk for injury, but Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are also concerned about a higher Yahoo ADP.

It’s not easy to badmouth someone from Firebaugh, but Allen has to overcome a run-heavy OC and the loss of Stefon Diggs. The Bills ranked first in Rush % and last in Passing % after Joe Brady took over as play-caller last season, which was before Diggs departed. While that style helps Allen’s rushing stats, his splits with Diggs have been dramatic. Allen has averaged 27.4 fantasy points, 264.8 passing yards and 2.06 passing touchdowns in 67 career games with Diggs on the field; he has averaged 19.7 fantasy points, 183.9 passing yards and 1.07 passing TDs in 27 games without Diggs (RotoViz).

Allen is a beast and a better QB at this stage of his career (compared to pre-Diggs), and the Bills have added weapons (though rookie Keon Coleman had the second-lowest YPT of all WR draft prospects), but it shouldn’t go unnoticed that the top drafted fantasy QB lost an alpha WR and his clear favorite target. BetMGM set Allen’s passing yards over/under at 3,615.5, which is just 212.7 yards per game.

Allen averaged 7.6 rushing touchdowns in five seasons before catching 15 last year, despite rushing for far fewer yards than the previous two years. That will likely decline in 2024. Allen hasn’t missed much playing time, but he suffered a toe tear in 2021, partially tore his elbow in 2022 and played last season with a shoulder injury.

Hurts dropped to just 7.2 YPA after losing Steichen (who left for AR) as his OC last season, when he would have finished as fantasy’s 16th QB without the tush-push touchdowns. That’s misleading, of course, but 13 of Hurts’ 15 rushing touchdowns came from inside the three-yard line; Jason Kelce is retired and the Eagles added Saquon Barkley in the offseason. The big loss of Kelce combined with the addition of Barkley should lead to less running from Hurts, especially with the team’s incentive to keep him healthy for a playoff run.

Hurts played through injury (as usual), but his carries and designed runs per game dropped noticeably last season. He’s battled late-season injuries his entire career, with last year being the first year Hurts didn’t miss multiple games (since becoming a starter). He’ll also have to learn an entirely new offense in 2024.

Mahomes is the GOAT, but he was just the QB13 in fantasy points per game last season, and the Chiefs are mostly concerned with becoming the first team to win three straight Super Bowls (with the help of an elite defense). Defenses forced Mahomes to rank 33rd in air yards per attempt last season (6.5), and Kansas City enters 2024 with lingering questions at wide receiver and left tackle. Rashee Rice could be suspended indefinitely, and Travis Kelce turns 35 this season. Newcomer Hollywood Brown is one of the league’s most injury-prone receivers, while rookie Xavier Worthy weighs in at 165 pounds and injured his hamstring in training camp. Mahomes also lacks the rushing upside compared to the other elite fantasy QBs.

Jackson averaged 21.1 fantasy points during his MVP campaign last year — a figure that would be considered a disappointment for Richardson in 2024. Jackson’s designed carries dropped to a career low last year, and that trend is expected to increase with the addition of Derrick Henry. Jackson missed 10 games in 2021-22, so he, too, has health issues.

Allen, Hurts, Mahomes and Jackson are all great players who deserve high ADPs, but they also enter 2024 with doubts.

Finally

With his mouth-watering rushing skills and the right coaching staff and roster around him, Richardson’s unmatched fantasy potential outweighs his health risks.