The best daily bets for Wednesday’s quarter-finals

Tennis Betting Tips: US Open Matches

1pt Karolina Muchova beats Beatriz Haddad Maia 2-0 at 6/5 (bet365)

1pt Iga Swiatek beats Jessica Pegula 2-0 at 4/5 (bet365, William Hill, 888sport)

1pt Jannik Sinner serves most aces against Daniil Medvedev at 11/8 (bet365)

Sky Bet Odds | Paddy power | Betfair Sports Betting

Beatriz Haddad Maia v Karolina Muchova (1700 BST)

There are few better players to watch than Muchova when she is fit and performing well, which has been the case so far at the US Open.

She won every match in three sets and particularly impressed by beating Jasmine Paolini in the final round.

Her variety of shots and overall skills on court can surprise the best players and she appears to be in the same form that saw her reach the Roland Garros final last year.

The Czech has lost serve just twice in her last three matches in New York and now faces a player she has beaten three times in three previous meetings, dropping just one set.

Haddad Maia deserves respect and fought hard to beat Caroline Wozniacki the other day, but I wonder if the two hours and 41 minutes she spent on the court in the heat of the day played a part in this.

She was one of the few top players who played the week before this tournament and reached the final in Cleveland, so she has played a lot of tennis in the past two weeks.

I think Muchova will win this and I will support her to do it in three sets.

CLICK HERE to back Muchova to a 2-0 win with Sky Bet

Jack Draper v Alex de Minaur (to follow)

I’ve had enough of having to beat Draper as the favorite the last few rounds, and to be honest he’s made me look pretty stupid.

The Brit is playing great tennis at the moment, hitting the ball really well and his serve is great. He has only lost one game in four rounds so far.

I suspect De Minaur will struggle with power, even though he has one of the best defences on tour and can use his speed on the pitch to great effect.

With service winners and that all-important service-plus-one shot, Draper might just win this match.

I still have that nagging worry that he needs to step up a notch when he faces a better opponent and De Minaur is that. Draper has not faced a seed yet – Carlos Alcaraz was swept off his path – and now he faces a top 10 player who has beaten him three times out of three.

The Australian also has the added problem of not having faced a seeded opponent yet – potentially a big step up in quality – and has dropped a set in three of his four rounds so far.

He was sidelined for quite a while after Wimbledon and I wonder if that could be a factor when he plays against a higher class player.

I think there are a lot of ‘what if’ questions surrounding this match, so I’m happy to sit out the picture from a betting perspective.

Iga Swiatek v Jessica Pegula (0000 BST)

Swiatek has not made a single mistake so far and has won her four matches in three sets.

She has not had a break point in her last three matches, which bodes well for this match. For comparison, Pegula has had 16 break points in her equal matches, losing six of them.

Pegula was the best player in the run-up to this event and was in the finals twice in a row, in Toronto and Cincinnati. She has not lost a set at Flushing Meadows either, but now she is struggling with the age-old problem of a quarter-final in a Grand Slam.

She has reached this stage six times and lost six times.

Playing against the world number one is also far from ideal – she is 6-3 down overall. Those three wins (all on hardcourt) at least give her some confidence, but the last time they met, Swiatek finished her off with a 6-1 6-0 victory in the title match at the WTA Finals in November.

Pegula played well in the run-up to the match and there may be scar tissue left behind.

Considering everything that’s happened before, I wonder if Pegula really believes she can win this.

Because Swiatek serves so well and hits the ball so well from the baseline, I think she will win this match in three sets. I am therefore prepared to put my money into action.

CLICK HERE to back Swiatek to a 2-0 win at Sky Bet

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev (to follow)

The tournament favorite will face the 2021 champion on Wednesday night at Arthur Ashe Stadium. That promises to be something.

Both men appear to be rock solid in their attempts to reach this stage: after dropping a set in their opening matches, the duo have since won in straight sets.

I would put a little star next to Medvedev in terms of his level of opponent. He has yet to play anyone in the top 30 in New York, with his last win at Wimbledon – against a certain Mr Sinner.

Despite all the talk about his specialty on hardcourt, the fact is that Medvedev has only beaten one top-10 player on the surface since his two-sets loss to Sinner in the Australian Open final in January. That was Holger Rune, who has struggled through 2024.

For me, this represents a big step forward in his class and while Medvedev can at best close the gap, it seems like he is asking a lot to do so.

The last time they met on hardcourt, he was beaten badly. Sinner won 6-1, 6-2 in Miami. He will have gained some confidence, however, after his surprise victory at Wimbledon, which ended in five sets on a day when Sinner was not at his physical best.

The Italian has been plagued by injuries this season, but he doesn’t seem to be bothered too much by them in New York, and probably deserves his 2/5 award.

Medvedev could make it competitive – I was considering over 37.5 games at 5/6, and Sinner to win with both players winning a set at 6/4. Four of the last five meetings have all ended in a deciding set.

A tiebreak in the match at 4/5 also looks tempting. That has happened in four of their last six matches, with Sinner playing two in the last round against Tommy Paul.

However, this seems like a good time to delve into the top markets that have served this section well for years.

Sinner is the 11/8 underdog to serve the most, despite having won the bet in all three meetings this season – 17-15 (Wimbledon), 7-3 (Miami) and 14-11 (Australian Open). The previous match in the series saw a 10-10 draw.

As regular readers know, I attach great importance to head-to-head matches, but even if you look at the stats from this tournament, you will see that Sinner has a marginal advantage: he has hit 0.71 aces per match so far, Medvedev 0.7.

11/8 is just too big here.

Posted at 23:00 BST on 03/09/24

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