Staff Predictions Round Table Discussion: Penn State Travels to West Virginia

We’re here! The first game of the season is here and we have our first official prediction roundtable (for one game) of the season! Let’s see what the staff sees happening on Saturday:

Lando

I’m probably not as certain as most of my fellow writers (except Bennett, maybe?), but that’s par for the course when it comes to game predictions. Starting the year in an at least somewhat hostile environment, against a team that has a lot to prove to itself and its fans, makes me nervous. If Drew Allar can get hot early, West Virginia should close things out. Defensively, the new, albeit talented secondary could be tested by Garrett Greene, and I think Greene makes enough plays to keep the Mountaineers and their home crowd in the game for at least three quarters. Penn State scores late in the game to put the game out of reach.

Penn State 31, West Virginia 20

Chris

The hairs on the back of my neck have been standing up for this game for the last 2 weeks or so, and I still don’t really know why. The West Virginia offense is going to score some points, I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. Garrett Greene is a very good QB, and I foresee a tough day at the office for Penn State’s defense. That’s fine, because Penn State’s defense is strong, but still. The good (?) news is that the ‘honor defense wasn’t great last year and lost some guys. Breaking into Andy Kotelnicki’s offense would probably be easier at home against Creampuff State University, but the WVU defense is probably going to give up some points. It was probably best said by philosopher and Skittle expert Marshawn Lynch: “I mean, I know I’m going to get it, but I’m going to get mine more often than I get it, you know.”

Penn State 28, West Virginia 24

Patrick

I think West Virginia’s overall path to victory this season will be to run the ball, which sets them up well against a large portion of their Big 12 schedule. Unfortunately for them, Penn State’s defensive tackles are proven and extremely experienced – three of the four players on the DT two-deep are either 6th-year seniors (Dvon J-Thomas and Hakeem Beamon) or 5th-year seniors (Coziah Izzard) – which is going to make running the ball against the Nittany Lions very challenging. Maybe Garrett Greene does his best to emulate Trace McSorley and somehow finds a way to keep drives alive, but I think the smart money is on Penn State on this one.

Penn State 27, West Virginia 16

Colin

It’s hard to say what to expect from the away games in Week 1, but this seems like a game that Penn State should win.

My biggest concern about this game is Garrett Greene running the ball. He had 71 yards on 15 carries against Penn State last year. Abdul Carter and company will have to keep him in the pocket. West Virginia’s wide receivers are perhaps an even bigger question mark than Penn State’s, so if the Lions can stop the running game, the defense will be in very good shape.

On offense, Penn State is learning a new scheme, but I think we’ll see more creative play calling from Andy Kotelnicki right from the start. West Virginia’s defense was poor last year, and the Mountaineers lost half of their 2023 defensive production. I see a slow start for the offense, but they’ll start clicking late in the first quarter or early in the second.

Penn State 35, West Virginia 17

Tim

It’s one thing when it’s just the opposing fans spouting nonsense on the internet, but it’s another when an opposing player opens his mouth to the media. The latter is exactly what West Virginia cornerback Garnett Hollis Jr., a transfer from Northwestern, did when he claimed that PSU doesn’t respect anyone other than Ohio State and Michigan and that they (West Virginia) were ready to punch PSU in the face. You’d be naive to think that those comments weren’t printed and plastered all over the Lasch Building and that the players weren’t ready to let Hollis eat his own words. WVU has enough talent not to look foolish in what will be a raucous environment in Morgantown, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take an early lead as Andy Kotelnicki and Tom Allen get used to their first gameday experiences as OC and DC at PSU. However, PSU has the superior talent and depth in this game and it will show in the fourth quarter.

Yes, Garrett Greene will be a slippery pain-in-the-ass at times, and CJ Donaldson and Jaheim White could make a good running combo, but PSU’s D will force Greene to throw the ball to an unproven group of receivers to move the chains, and that’s where I think the secondary led by KJ Winston, Zakee Wheatley, Cam Miller and AJ Harris has a chance to feast. And that’s not to mention WVU’s defense, which isn’t anything to write home about. Expect a healthy dose of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen on the ground, while Drew Allar has had his share of success passing against a WVU secondary that features Hollis and Duquesne transfer Ayden Garnes starting opposite each other at corner. Kotelnicki is no stranger to this WVU defense, having carved them up as Kansas’ OC. Expect him to be successful enough with the improved tools he has at PSU to help the Nittany Lions leave Morgantown with the dub.

Penn State 31, West Virginia 17

Bennett

As a Penn State football history nerd, and I’m writing this prediction right after reading the Lion’s Tale post you should have read by now, I can’t help but look back at 2021 and 2022 for some thoughts. I know. Different teams. Different years. Different opponents. But in both seasons, Penn State started September hot, and part of the fun of those months was how the Lions handled hostile away games. In 2021, the offense never really got going, but Penn State survived Camp Randall. In 2022, they were lucky to avoid Purdue, but they did. In 2022, too, the talk was about how hostile and magical the Jordan-Hare experience would be. That magic lasted about as long as it took Nicholas Singleton to travel 50 yards.

The point is, I think James Franklin, despite all the crap he gets on this site, has done a pretty good job of getting his team ready for early road games (not counting the stupid Covid year). Maryland in 2019? Pitt in 2018? These were other games with a lot of nail-biting all week, only to see Penn State roll to easy wins. Lndo called me one of the more conservative predictors on the board. Well, guess what. I don’t care if I’m providing bulletin board material to WVU this week. I like the Lions and I’m comfortable with them.

Penn State 35, West Virginia 20

Jared (originally seen in the Game Preview)

As much as I enjoyed watching Georgia technology‘s methodical Week 0 upset of Floriday State made me more concerned about this matchup. Like Georgia Tech, West Virginia has a capable offensive line and a veteran quarterback who can extend drives with both his arm and legs and can be especially dangerous on third downs. The fact that Penn State will be entering a hugely hostile environment only adds fuel to the Mountaineers’ upset bid.

But when push comes to shove, I believe Penn State’s talent and coaching will get the job done. Penn State should once again have a frugal defense that can stop the run and get to the quarterback. While Greene will have some success early on keeping the defense on edge and testing the inexperienced corners, the defense will settle in and make it much harder to move the ball in the second half. The key will be keeping Greene in the pocket and not allowing him to extend drives.

I don’t expect the new attack to be running at full speed right away, but a good day on the field (especially if storms come early) and Allar looking more comfortable and using more of the field should give us plenty of optimism for the season ahead.

West Virginia starts aggressively and goes into halftime with a field goal lead, but Penn State takes control in the second half and wins convincingly from the first week.

Penn State 34, West Virginia 20

Eli (originally seen in the Big Ten Preview)

James Franklin continues to call Morgantown a “horn’s nest,” so the Lions could be in trouble when they visit the Mountaineers. That said, talent usually wins, and just like last season, the Lions will likely pull away late in the game.

Penn State 56, West Virginia 17