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Spencer Schwellenbach takes the mound as the Atlanta Braves attempt to win the series against the Phillies

VaselineAugust 25, 2024

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Spencer Schwellenbach takes the mound as the Atlanta Braves attempt to win the series against the Phillies

The Atlanta Braves take on the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies in a series quest after losing by one run last night in a game that saw the Phillies come back late in the game to win.

Cristopher Sánchez, showing that last year was no fluke, will take the mound for the Phillies. Rising Braves star Spencer Schwellenbach will take the mound for the Braves. Schwellenbach has been solid since early July.

In his last seven starts, Schwellenbach has a 2.86 ERA, a 2.94 FIP, and 53 strikeouts against just five walks. Hitters have slashed .212/.240/.364 against him in that span. When you look at his underlying stats, they’re fantastic. He’s in the top 2 percent of MLB in chase rate and the top 18 percent in expected ERA (xERA). That he’s walked just five times in his last seven games probably seemed impressive, because it is. On a season-long basis, only 5 percent of qualified pitchers have a lower walk rate.

If Schwellenbach had pitched the entire season as he has since July, he would be in the mix for Rookie of the Year. He probably wouldn’t beat out Skenes or Merrill, but he would be in the mix.

Schwellenbach has faced the Phillies once this season, and he did well. He threw six innings and gave up seven hits (all singles), no walks, six strikeouts, and one earned run. In that game, it should be noted that it was during that short period that both Harper and Schwarber were injured. Of the players still active at the time, Rojas, Castellanos, Marsh, Stott, and Turner each had one single against Schwellenbach.

Cristopher Sánchez has a 3.46 ERA and 1.254 WHIP over 140.1 innings for the Phillies this year. He joined the league in 2021 and prior to this season had never pitched more than 99.1 innings when he became a full-time starter last season.

It appears fatigue is getting to him, as he’s following the opposite trend of Schwellenbach. Since the beginning of July, Sanchez has a 5.55 ERA with just twenty-nine strikeouts and ten walks in 47.0 innings. To be fair, his 3.67 FIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky in terms of ERA. Hitters, however, have had no trouble getting hits against him, with a slash of .285/.320/.394 during that span.

Although the Phillies have faced the Braves eight times this season, Sanchez has not made any of those starts. He has faced a number of Braves in the past. He has generally fared well against them. Soler, Arcia, Harris, Laureano and Murphy are hitless against him, albeit with five or fewer plate appearances.

Ozuna has had success in four plate appearances with a 1.350 OPS and .500 average. d’Arnaud has only had two plate appearances against him, but has managed a 1.500 OPS in the limited sample size. Olson has seen him most often with six plate appearances and has struggled to a .334 OPS.

This month, the Phillies are 9-9, but the Braves haven’t been able to capitalize on that, going 9-10 themselves. Time is running out for the Braves to catch up to the Phillies, but a win tonight would go a long way, especially since the Braves have four games against them at the end of the month.