Spencer Arrighetti’s dominant run creates a major problem for the Houston Astros’ rotation

PHILADELPHIA — There were six outs between Spencer Arrighetti and history.

Through seven innings of uncomfortably humid Philadelphia afternoon, no Phillies recorded a hit against the Astros rookie. With his funky release angle, an “invisiball” heater and four secondary offerings, Arrighetti tore apart a vaunted veteran lineup.

But there is no history without luck. And the baseball gods, at least on this day, were not in Arrighetti’s favor.

On the first pitch of the eighth inning, outfielder Austin Hays tapped an 85.2-mph bounder to left off of substitute third baseman Shay Whitcomb. The ball—and the no-hitter with it—bounced off Whitcomb’s outstretched glove. Hays soared past first base, his arms outstretched in relief. The fans at Citizens Bank Park, their team down 10-0, gasped and cheered.

Arrighetti, who was six outs short, barely responded.

He stoically retired the next two batters, Garrett Stubbs and Kyle Schwarber, for his 10th and 11th strikeouts of the day. A two-out, looping Trea Turner single on Arrighetti’s 103rd pitch brought manager Joe Espada out of the dugout. But the 24-year-old right-handed pitcher had one more fight left.

“He said, ‘Joe, I really want (Bryce) Harper,'” the Astros captain told reporters after the game. “I said, ‘I know you want it, son, but this is the end of the day. You’ll get Harper another time.'”

Arrigetti’s final line: 7 2/3 innings, 11 punchouts, four walks, two hits, and no runs. He produced 19 swing-and-misses, nine of which came on his trademark heater. The long-haired Texan leaned on that fastball off the jump, attacking leadoff hitter Schwarber with three straight in-zone heaters. The imposing slugger, accustomed to a barrage of breakers, took the first two for strikes and swung through the third.

With that, Arrigetti could get started.

While it was easily the best start of his young career, Arrighetti has been a force over the past six weeks. In his last eight starts, the boyhood Astros fan (he attended Game 5 of the 2017 World Series as a fan) has a 2.68 ERA in 50 1/3 innings with 65 strikeouts.

In April, a series of injuries to Houston’s rotation forced the unprepared Arrighetti into the big leagues. He struggled mightily; after seven starts, his ERA was 7.16. Now, that feels a universe away.

Major League Baseball is a tough business. Arrighetti is a smart guy who has learned from his missteps. His stuff, especially the approach angle and shape of his fastball, used to be compelling. Now he has a better handle on his arsenal and is seeing the results that go with it.

The emergence of Arrighetti leaves Houston — which led Seattle by 3.5 points in the division entering Thursday — with a problem most teams would love: too many good starting pitchers.

If the Astros, who have reached seven consecutive ALCSs, survive the Mariners, they will need four starting pitchers in October. Right now, they have six legitimate options: Arrighetti, Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Hunter Brown, Yusei Kikuchi and Ronel Blanco.

Valdez is the only sure thing. He’s made 15 starts during Houston’s historic run of October dominance. In 23 outings this season, he has a 3.27 ERA. He was one out away from his second career no-hitter a month ago. Expect the burly left-hander to get the ball in Game 1.

Verlander is the second-most likely option, despite having made just two starts since returning from a neck problem that sidelined him for 10 weeks. His first outing was encouraging; his second, not so much. The future Hall of Famer has 37 career postseason starts but is hardly the overwhelming force he once was. Still, assuming Verlander can shake off the cobwebs, it’s hard to imagine the 41-year-old not getting a playoff start.

Then it gets blurrier.

Brown turned his season around in late May after adding a sinker to his arsenal. Since May 22, the 26-year-old has a 2.23 ERA in 16 starts. He has the fifth-best strikeout rate in baseball over that span. If it weren’t for his abysmal April, Brown might have been getting Cy Young votes. He’s unproven in October, but there’s an argument to be made that he’s one of the best pitchers in the game right now.

Kikuchi was the prize addition of Houston’s deadline. The Astros sent three highly touted prospects to Toronto for just a few months of the left-hander, who will hit free agency this winter. Kikuchi has turned his season around since then, posting a 2.89 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning in five starts in blue and orange. But is a month of success enough? The 33-year-old Japanese is a home run-prone prospect, especially against a lineup that has superior numbers against lefties (Cleveland fits the bill).

Blanco was a revelation in his first full season as a starter. He opened the year with a no-hitter and has spent most of 2024 proving that was no fluke. The 30-year-old Dominican still has the fewest hits allowed per nine innings. But there are a few reasons Blanco is likely best suited for a bulk bullpen role in October. He (1) has already passed his career high in innings, (2) has experience as a reliever, and (3) gives up too many hits.

That’s Arrighetti’s problem, too. Even during his no-hit bid Wednesday, Arrighetti walked four times. Only Michael Lorenzen and Luis Gil have higher walk rates among pitchers with at least 120 innings. Also, the reliance on rookies tends to decrease as the weather gets colder and the games get tighter.

But if Arrighetti continues to pitch the way he did against the Phillies, Houston likely will have no choice but to factor him into the October equation.