Sinwar’s death complicates the path to the liberation of Israeli hostages – Ya Libnan

Photo: The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has led to calls for an agreement on the release of the Israeli hostages. “Without a real solution – that is, the creation of a sovereign, independent Palestinian state alongside Israel – there would be no long-term peace and security,” said former Prime Minister Ehud Barak.

Slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was seen as a major obstacle to an agreement over the Israeli hostages captured in the October 7 attack that he masterminded.

Now that his death has plunged his group into a leadership vacuum, the future of the hostage negotiations appears to have become even more complicated.

Hamas must now appoint a replacement, and that person will play a key role in determining the fate of the Israelis held hostage since the attack on October 7, 2023.

Of the 251 hostages brought to the Gaza Strip that day, 97 are still being held, including 34 who the Israeli military has confirmed dead.

Negotiations for their release are being led by Israeli intelligence services, with the help of the United States, Egypt and Qatar.

But that task won’t be any easier with Sinwar gone, analysts said.

“The fate of the hostages can now be sealed for the simple reason that there is no one left to negotiate their release,” said Karim Mezran, a Middle East expert at the Atlantic Council think tank.

US intelligence believed that “Sinwar’s position had hardened in recent weeks, leading US negotiators to believe that Hamas was no longer interested in reaching a ceasefire or hostage agreement,” according to the New York-based Soufan Center .

So “any upcoming negotiations could also serve as a litmus test for Hamas’s operational capacity in the post-Sinwar era,” the think tank added.

While the families of the hostages welcomed Sinwar’s killing, they also expressed “deep concern” for those still held captive.

“We call on the Israeli government, world leaders and intermediary countries to transform the military achievement into a diplomatic achievement by pursuing an immediate agreement for the release,” the Hostages and Missing Persons Families Forum said on Friday.

Hamas ‘decentralized’

Part of the problem lies in the fact that Hamas is no longer the ultra-hierarchical organization it was when it carried out the October 7 attack that sparked the Gaza war.

Decimated and scattered by Israel’s offensive, and with the Gaza Strip split in two by the Israeli army, the militant group today operates “in very localized cells, in a much more decentralized way,” says think tank researcher David Khalfa Fondation Jean-Jaures. told AFP.

Hamas “is now more of a militia with local warlords” linked to “families apparently holding hostages,” he said.

That “will be a real problem for the Israelis and the Americans. Instead of reaching a blanket agreement on the hostages, they will likely aim for a piecemeal release,” Khalfa said.

Until mid-2024, Hamas’s structure was split into two: on the one hand, the political branch led by Ismail Haniyeh, based in the Qatari capital Doha, and the paramilitary branch led by Sinwar in Gaza on the other.

Sinwar emerged as the overall leader of Hamas after Haniyeh was assassinated in July.

The balance of power between the two now tilts toward the political office, “where sources of funding, logistical support and militia training are concentrated,” Khalfa said.

If the group chooses a leader in exile, it risks alienating its new leader from its forces on the ground in the Palestinian territories.

But if it appoints a fighter like Sinwar’s brother Mohammed, Hamas will send a signal that it has less interest in a political solution to the war.

‘Much darker’ picture

The hostage negotiations are now in uncharted territory.

“Previous negotiating attempts were all based on the idea that Sinwar had a connection to most of those holding hostages, and that he could shape their actions,” said Jon Alterman of US think tank CSIS.

“The picture is much murkier now and we are likely to see a diverse range of outcomes,” he said.

There are even fears that the hostages will be executed, perhaps in revenge for Sinwar’s killing or because the militants feel they can no longer sell the hostages for cash.

Because no one in the group is “willing to take the deadly risk of caring for them… the hostages may be left to fend for themselves and escape,” Mezran said.

“The fear is also that mid-level Hamas operatives could be tempted to eliminate the hostages to protect their own identities from eventual retaliation from Israeli forces.”

The pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is enormous, but his government appears unwilling to secure the release of the hostages at any cost.

She will not have forgotten the release in 2011 of more than a thousand Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who was held hostage by Hamas for five years.

Among the freed Palestinians was Sinwar himself.

“They want to get rid of the Shalit precedent, a mistake for which they paid a high price,” Khalfa said.

FRANCE24/EPP