Russia emptied and returned warships from Black Sea base: images

• Satellite images of a Russian naval base in September revealed strange movements at the facility.
• On several occasions, Russia has partially or completely dispersed its naval vessels near Novorossiysk.
• The strange behavior follows devastating Ukrainian attacks on the Black Sea Fleet.

Satellite images of a key Russian naval base along the Black Sea have revealed strange behavior, most notably dozens of military ships dispersing from the facility, only to return moments later.

The footage, collected by BlackSky in September and obtained by Business Insider, shows that on three separate occasions that month, Russia partially or completely dispersed its naval vessels from the port of Novorossiysk for short periods.

The mysterious behavior has not yet been attributed to anything specific, but it comes against the backdrop of a Ukrainian long-range attack campaign against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

The Black Sea Fleet had long been headquartered in Sevastopol, in the southwestern corner of the occupied Crimean Peninsula. But a series of high-profile Ukrainian missile and naval drone attacks on the port forced Russia to withdraw its warships to bases in Feodosia, on the other side of Crimea, and Novorossiysk, in western Russia.

The attacks have not stopped and Ukraine has attacked Novorossiysk with drones several times this year.

According to BlackSky images and analysis, there are typically more than 50 ships – a mix of surface warships, submarines, supply ships and tugboats – based in Novorossiysk. The company provides space-based real-time intelligence and has collected hundreds of port images since June 2023.

But in September, BlackSky discovered unusual behavior for the first time: the military ships left Novorossiysk shortly before returning. Three separate cases were observed revealing partial and complete dispersal of ships from the port.

Images from September 2 show the Black Sea Fleet actively leaving the port of Novorossiysk, with more than twenty ships seen leaving port for port.

According to BlackSky’s images and analysis, similar activity was detected the following week, on September 11, when only seven ships were still in port.

And a few days later, on September 14, for the first time there were no naval ships in Novorossiysk. However, some were hidden in the nearby commercial port.

An intelligence analyst familiar with the images and data, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the Russian behavior as “a new tactic,” although it is unclear to what end.

“The most fascinating thing is that when the ships left, no attack followed,” the analyst told BI, adding that such activity has not been observed in Novorossiysk before.

“It’s a brand new phenomenon where Navy ships are completely evacuating the port. They just have nowhere else to go.”

The analyst said the ships don’t go very far if they spread out, noting that “they usually sit outside the port and hang out where they gather and are still susceptible to attack.”

It is not clear why Russia moved its ships in such a way, as the ship movement does not appear to correspond with a publicly disclosed attack on Novorossiysk.

In early September, there was locally reported naval drone activity near the port; However, Ukraine has not announced its involvement, as it normally does after an attack on the Black Sea Fleet.

Russia held large-scale naval exercises between September 10 and 16, but there was no ship involvement in the Black Sea. Western intelligence said this was “highly likely” because of Ukrainian attacks in the first half of the year.

Some analysts have speculated that the spread may have been Russia’s response to reports at the time that the US and Britain were moving closer to lifting restrictions on Ukrainian use of their long-range missiles. Kiev has long been banned from using these powerful weapons to attack military targets in Russia.

Although these restrictions are still in place, Ukraine has demonstrated during the war that it has long range with its own domestically produced cruise missiles, long-range attack drones and naval drones.

Brady Africk, an open-source intelligence analyst and fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank, told BI that Ukraine has steadily developed its long-range strike capabilities, which could threaten an increasing number of Russian military assets.

“When it comes to Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, we have seen that Ukraine has succeeded several times in attacking Russian ships in these ports,” said Africk, who works with satellite images to monitor activity in the Black Sea.

“That has prompted Russia not only to add layers of defense at port entrances, but also to spread its assets further within these locations,” he added.

Satellite images have captured Russia’s extensive efforts to protect its ports from Ukrainian attacks. In Novorossiysk, for example, Moscow has installed ships and floating defenses to provide greater protection.

Russia has stepped up its combat air patrols in other parts of the Black Sea and placed more weapons on its warships, a general from Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) previously told BI, but the attacks continue.

Africk said that unlike the significant Russian dispersal from Sevastopol, which was a major response to Ukraine’s increasing ability to attack the Black Sea Fleet at longer ranges, the situation in Novorossiysk has been more patchy.

In other words, naval assets have been moved to less consistent bases and under certain circumstances, such as when Moscow is concerned about a possible attack.

The Ukrainian Black Sea Campaign has been a decisive success in the war. A senior U.S. defense official said last month that Kiev sank, destroyed or damaged at least 32 medium and large Russian naval vessels, driving Moscow’s naval forces from Crimea.

Africk said: “Ukraine has created a situation where Russian naval assets have fewer and fewer hiding places, especially the closer they are to Kiev-controlled territory.”