Predicting the two mysterious teams trying to crash the party

We are now in the middle of November. GM Meetings have come and gone, and trades and signings are slowly starting to trickle in. The MLB offseason is in full swing, and this year that can only mean one thing: Juan Soto Watch has officially begun.

Soto is the first domino to fall this winter, a 26-year-old superstar who all of the game’s biggest players hope to sign to a contract that will likely shatter records once the ink is dry. And it looks like the baseball world won’t have to wait too long to make a decision: Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, will host teams for individual meets in Southern California starting next week, and Soto expects they will to happen. sign not long after.

At this point, we have a pretty good idea of ​​who those teams will be. The New York Yankees and York Mets have already been confirmed, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays have been added to the list. But Heyman added another tidbit that caught everyone’s attention, claiming that Soto and Boras will also play host to two other “mystery” teams, one of which is believed to be from a smaller market.

That’s right, it’s another mystery team season. Sometimes this is just a negotiating tactic, a way for an agent to push the bids even higher for their client. But sometimes the mystery team has the last laugh, which means Heyman’s report is worth taking seriously. Who could those two other candidates for Soto’s services be? Let’s investigate.

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We can take out a lot of teams right away. The White Sox, Angels, Athletics, Marlins and Rockies are all a tough no, simply for competitive reasons. The Reds, Pirates and Twins almost certainly don’t have the money right now. The Rangers have plenty of other needs to fill and are reportedly looking to shed payroll, the Cardinals are selling instead of buying, the Cubs ruled themselves out days ago, the Diamondbacks have discussed their outfield spots, the Braves appear to be looking to sights elsewhere and the Padres just traded Soto last winter.

So that leaves us with the following options: the Orioles, Rays, Guardians, Royals, Tigers, Astros, Mariners, Phillies, Nationals and Brewers. The Astros have their own right fielder that they need to lock up for an extended period of time so we can remove them. Milwaukee and Baltimore both have a lot of young talent on the field, which seems to indicate that their limited free agent money could be better used in other areas. The Guardians, Royals and Mariners all have varying degrees of suitability, but we simply don’t have any evidence that they are willing to swim in these financial waters. The largest contract all four have ever handed out, the 14-year mega-extension the Royals signed to Bobby Witt Jr. gifts, is less than half of what Soto is expected to get this winter.

Suddenly we have limited ourselves quite a bit. The Rays, Tigers, Phillies and Nationals remain, conveniently a list that includes both major and minor teams. Which two feel most likely? I’m tempted to really consider the Rays – remember, they offered Freddie Freeman very competitive money a few years ago – but it feels a bit rich for their blood, and a hard sell for Soto given the current rumors about relocation and a dying fan base. Scott Boras is happy to bend the ear of Washington owner Mark Lerner, and the Nats appear to be on the verge of entering a new era of contention, but it’s hard to imagine Soto returning to the team whose extension offer he has rejected. And then there were two.

This would be no total mystery given how much speculation there has been surrounding the Phillies’ possible pursuit of Soto this offseason. But these speculations haven’t been confirmed yet, which is why they still qualify as a mystery team.

And the math is correct. This team needs a jolt after yet another postseason flameout, and it just so happens that two current corner outfielders, Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh, have emerged as potential trade candidates, joining third baseman Alec Bohm. Given Philly’s current financial and roster woes, it makes sense that Dave Dombrowski would want to keep a channel open with Boras while not wanting too much to be leaked to the media; The last thing the Phillies want is for Soto to go elsewhere after Castellanos’ name was dragged through the rumor mill.

And it also makes sense that a team with so much starting pitching, a clear desire for a more contact-oriented approach and one of the most aggressive executives in the game would make a run here. It’s not the most likely destination, but it’s hard to believe Dombrowski isn’t at least seriously considering it.

Which brings us to our small market mystery team. The Tigers are young and rising and come within one game of Soto’s Yankees in the ALCS this season. They also seem willing to spend money: Detroit owner Chris Ilitch inherited the team after the death of his father Mike, who never shied away from spending big to bring players to the Motor City when his team was ready to fight.

Ilitch has been open about his desire to follow in his father’s footsteps, and now is the time to strike. The Tigers have a gaping hole in left field, with Parker Meadows in center, Riley Greene in right and Kerry Carpenter better suited for DH duties. The AL Central is up for grabs and Tarik Skubal is bringing in a pitching staff that plans to take a big leap forward next season. This is exactly the kind of team that could join the conversation, and exactly the kind of owner Boras wants to use as leverage.