Pistons player preview: Tobias Harris makes everything easier for the young players

The Detroit Pistons entered the offseason needing a complete overhaul, and that’s exactly what they got. Troy Weaver and Monty Williams are dating. Enter Trajan Langdon and JB Bickerstaff. Most of the 31 players who played for the team last season have found new homes inside and outside the NBA. The only returning pieces are the young players drafted by the previous regime.

Armed with a huge amount of cap space, some people might call the Pistons’ free agency quiet, but they had a clear goal: adding reliable veteran floor spacers with a solid health track record. Tobias Harris is the standout of that group and he was paid a pretty penny for that.

Whether you like the contract the Pistons gave him or not, Harris is primed for a major role with the Detroit Pistons from 2024-2025.

Let’s take a look at what Tobias Harris brings to the team.

Offence

Pistons fans should be quite familiar with what Tobias Harris brings to the table as this is his second stint with the team. For those of you who weren’t there for his first round or haven’t been following his play closely since he left, let’s take a look at what he brings to the table on the offensive end of the court.

The biggest and most obvious skill that Tobias Harris offers is the ability to create shots from outside while having the size to play either wing position. It’s a skill set the Pistons have been missing since trading Jerami Grant. It’s also a skill set that all successful teams in the NBA have multiple players possess.

Harris is a career shooter of 36.8% from beyond the arc on 3.7 attempts per game. But more importantly, he hasn’t shot below 35% from beyond the arc since the 2015-16 season. His game-to-game consistency in terms of the number of shots he takes will leave a bit to be desired, but he is one of the more consistent big shooters in the NBA.

He’s not exactly a high-volume three-point shooter, and his attempts per game are down, but he’s a respectable shooter, and he can also punish teams off the dribble if they close down too hard.

Over his career, 89.7% of his 3s are assisted while only 48.1% of his 2-point shots are assisted, and his numbers last season were in line with that (44.4% assisted inside the arc and 95.6% assisted from three). It shows that he doesn’t create a lot of open threes for himself, but he is still able to put the ball on the floor and create his own shot inside the arc. According to NBA.com, he shot just 35.3% on catch-and-shoot 3s last season, something you hope will improve as he will likely get a lot of catch-and-shoot opportunities playing against Cade Cunningham.

When Isaiah Stewart played the four-way for the Pistons last season, he was able to emulate most of the shooting that Tobias Harris can provide, but the ability to put the ball on the floor and make decisions was completely lacking. Stew also hasn’t earned the respect that Harris has as a shooter, so it didn’t help that much with the distance. That’s a skill set that Tobias offers that has been sorely lacking for the Pistons in recent seasons.

Harris does a good job of finishing at the rim and even shoots the ball well from the middle. From 0-3 feet Tobias Harris is at 67.4% for his career and shot 68.6% from that distance last season. That figure would have surpassed all non-centers who played more than 30 games for the Pistons last season except Killian Hayes.

From 10 to 15 feet, Harris shot 51.1%. From 16 feet to the 3-point line, he shot 39.4%. To paint a picture, Cunningham has a highly regarded midrange game and he shot 52.8% from 10 to 15 feet and 42.7% from 15 feet to the three-point line. Harris took 14% of his shots from 10-15 feet and 7% of his shots from 16 feet to the three-point line last season, so it’s an area of ​​his game he does use, though he still takes the highest percentage. of his shots from beyond the arc (27.1% last season)

I wouldn’t call Tobias Harris a great passer by any means, but he is able to make decisions with the ball and keep the ball moving, which is something you want from your Power Forward. Harris has averaged about 3 assists per game during his tenure with Philadelphia while only turning the ball over about 1.5 times per game. That is not exceptional, but certainly something that is welcome in a team with many young players with turnover problems.

Harris’ career turnover rate is 8.9 and last season it was 8.2. The only player still on the roster who had a lower turnover percentage is Simone Fontecchio

Harris should have no problem playing off a ball-dominant player in Cunningham as he played against two players in Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, but one reason for his poor reception in Philadelphia was the fact that he had a tendency to disappear at inopportune moments. time. There’s no better example than his last two games with the 76ers. He had 19 points on 7-for-11 shooting in Game 5 of the playoffs against the Knicks and then followed that up with an 0-of-2 no-show in 29 minutes in the elimination Game 6.

If you look at his game log throughout his career, he has many games where he scores 25 points on high efficiency one night and follows that up with a 12-point game on 3-of-10 shooting. Only superstar players are able to deliver it consistently every night, but the inconsistency is a major reason for Tobias Harris’ perception as a player in the league.

I think some of his issues are overblown, especially his “playoff struggles,” as he is averaging 16.3 points per game in the playoffs, the same as his career average. The shooting numbers are also very similar. Plus, playoff performance is the last thing the Pistons need to worry about right now.

An underrated aspect of Harris that isn’t really categorized under his defense or offense is his ability to stay healthy. For most teams, that would be a minor note in a free agent acquisition, but in the case of the Pistons, who have suffered numerous injuries to the veterans they’ve counted on in recent seasons, it’s a huge footnote.

He has not played fewer than 70 games in a season since 2014-15, with the exception of the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. It cannot be understated that you have a veteran who spreads the floor in a spot of need and also plays every game. Game-to-game consistency in terms of scoring may not always be there, but Tobias Harris will be a fixture in the Pistons’ starting lineup.

Defense

There is less to discover defensively. Harris isn’t a bad defender by any means, but I wouldn’t classify him as particularly good. He can defend his position and play team defense, but you don’t get a guy who can change a game on defense. The defensive counting stats aren’t impressive, as he has career averages of 0.8 steals and 0.5 blocks per game.

He has a career defensive BPM of -0.2, which basically means he’s a slightly below-average defender. The eye test backs that up, and there isn’t much more to say about it that hasn’t already been mentioned. He tries to defend, but has no notable features. He is not a superior athlete, nor does he possess an insane wingspan that gives him an advantage on defense. He will stick with his man and may be switched to smaller players at times, but he certainly won’t make the Pistons a better team defensively.

In fact, they’re probably a worse team defensively because he isn’t as switchable or as good on defense as Isaiah Stewart, who played a majority of his minutes at the four last season.

You also have to take into account the fact that Jalen Duren is defending the rim behind him instead of Joel Embiid and a worse defensive infrastructure around him. Maybe he decides to put in a little more effort on defense as the veteran the young players look up to, but the fact that he didn’t really do it with Philadelphia despite a lighter offensive load doesn’t bode well for him. defensive efforts, while in older age they are likely to be relied upon more offensively.

As for rebounding, Harris has averaged 6.2 rebounds per game for his career, which is right around his averages for the 76ers (6.5 last season). Rebounding is one aspect that shouldn’t be a huge problem for the Pistons, as Jalen Duren is one of the better rebounders in the league, and Harris is close to Isaiah Stewart’s average of 6.6 last season, so there isn’t really there is a lot of rebound. to take off. He also rebounds much more than Bojan Bogdanovic, who spent some time at the four with the Pistons before being traded to the Knicks.

Tobias Harris is obviously being signed for his offensive abilities, but you can’t get heavy minutes on a consistent playoff team without being at least passable on defense if you’re not an offensive superstar.

Forecasts for the season

It’s pretty easy to predict what you’ll get from Harris, as it’s been largely the same throughout his career. You get someone who is able to knock down shots from outside and outplay other players. He won’t carry you offensively, but is certainly capable of complementing a quality offensive creator, which is what the Pistons hope Cade Cunningham is.

On this team, Tobias Harris is likely the No. 2 forward on offense unless Jaden Ivey starts, so you can probably expect a slight bump in numbers. Towards the end of his time in Philadelphia, you could tell that Tobias Harris had mentally checked out, so playing somewhere he is known and where he wanted to be should help him get involved again.

The Pistons will rely on Tobias Harris to make room for Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey while providing invaluable leadership to a team that desperately needs veterans who are available to play and can actually play effectively.

If the Pistons get a re-committed Tobias Harris, what he can offer on offense should make him worth the contract he signed. If last year was the start of a decline for him as a player, I still think you’ll get value out of him, but probably not the value the Pistons are paying for.

The Pistons’ path to a respectable basketball team will likely come from becoming a top-half team on offense, which will help Tobias Harris. It’s also why his defense isn’t a major roadblock to the Pistons getting respectable again.

I predict averages of 17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3 assists at 48/37/84 for Tobias Harris in 2024-2025.