Odds & Picks Euro 2024 (Tuesday)

We’re approaching the end of the Euro 2024 group stage, which means there’s plenty of high-leverage football planned in the coming days. I’ll dive into all four Tuesday Euro 2024 matches from a betting perspective and let you know where I’m investing my money. And here’s a closer look at Tuesday’s Euro 2024 match: England vs Slovenia.

This article from the UEFA website delves into every qualifying scenario for every country.

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The best bets on Tuesday’s Euro 2024: England vs. Slovenia

(Euro 2024 odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

England vs Slovenia

Although Denmark are no slouch, a 1-1 draw for England (1-1-0) last time was probably not the desired result. They will look to bounce back on Tuesday when they close group play against third-place Slovenia (0-2-0), who draw 1-1 with Serbia. Kickoff is at 3:00 PM ET from Cologne Stadium in Cologne, Germany

I definitely wanted to find a way to back England in this match, but I don’t really feel like putting -280 on the moneyline. Instead, we can play them to win the first half outright and be only -120 vig. There’s no doubt that the Three Lions are the deeper squad, so as long as they play to their potential (which can sometimes be a big ‘if’ for them), they should take an early lead in this high-leverage match.

Although Slovenia managed a pair of 1-1 draws to start the tournament, the analytics say they are lucky to escape with those points. They have posted an expected goals against (xGA) rating of 3.3, the highest in Group C. Everyone else is below 2.0 in the xGA department. England’s xG is a frustrating 1.4 in two games, but something has to be done with this star-studded line-up. I think England will break early and often and take the lead into the dressing room after the first 45 minutes.

Betting: England first half -0.5 (-120)