Nickel vs. Craig Preview, Pick, Predictions

The next pay-per-view on the UFC schedule is just around the corner. That fight card, UFC 309, takes place on Saturday, November 16. The PPV event will be headlined by a match between current UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones and former two-time UFC heavyweight titleholder Stipe Miocic. The evening’s co-main event is a rematch between former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and three-time Bellator champion Michael Chandler. Before these two bouts take place, UFC middleweight contender Bo Nickal looks to continue his rise up the rankings against veteran UFC competitor Paul Craig.

UFC 309 takes place on November 16 at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The PPV card will stream on ESPN+ after the prelims on ESPNews and the early prelims on ESPN+

UFC 309 Preview: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

Bo Nickal (6-0) picked up a UFC contract after one fight on Jorge Masvidal’s iKON FC card and two appearances on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022. Nickal is 3-0 under the UFC banner with three wins in injury time. He hasn’t made it past the second round in any of his professional bouts, and before his UFC 300 match against Cody Brundage, he hadn’t fought past 2:54 in the first round. Nickal stopped Brundage via rear naked choke at 3:38 of round 2.

Nickal was a huge betting favorite prior to each of his UFC outings. In his promotional debut, Nickal was a -2500 favorite over Jamie Pickett. His next fight, against late replacement Val Woodburn, Nickal came in at -2200. Against Brundage, Nickal was a -1800 betting favorite.

Nickal’s background is wrestling. He was a three-time NCAA Division I national champion and three-time Big Ten Conference champion for head coach Cael Sanderson and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Nickal placed second in the 2016 NCAA finals, losing to Ohio State’s Myles Martin. Nickal defeated Martin in the 2018 finals. He compiled a career record of 131-5 at Penn State and went 61-0 in his final two years.

Paul Craig (17-8-1) has been with the UFC since 2016. Things haven’t gone well for Craig over the past two years. He is 1-4 in that time, with a TKO win over Andre Muniz and losses to Volkan Oezdemir, Johnny Walker, Brendan Allen and Caio Borralho. His most recent appearance was a knockout loss to Borralho in May.

Craig is an experienced grappler who never gives up. He is a tough opponent for anyone and is a threat at any point in a fight. Craig is the only fighter with a win over the highly ranked Magomed Ankalaev, literally reaching the final second of their 2018 matchup. Ankalaev is the No. 1 fighter in the official UFC light heavyweight rankings and is expected to be the next opponent for that division’s champion Alex Pereira.

Craig has never lost three fights in a row. He has bounced back from his losing skids in the past two fights with stoppage time victories.

UFC 309: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

“I think a lot of people know Paul Craig, and he’s had some really big wins in his career and he’s a dangerous opponent,” Nickal said. “He’s finished guys who have been champions and fought for the title, so this is definitely the most dangerous fight I’ve had yet and a big step forward. But I feel prepared and ready to just keep going building my reputation.”

“For me, it’s just another puzzle to solve. It’s another challenge to take on,” Nickal added. “I want to continue to develop and improve my skills in general and get better as a fighter. This is a different challenge than what I’ve had in the past and it makes it more fun for me. The fighting is a little bit physical, but it’s especially mentally. So I’m just looking forward to going out there and showing my mind and battling IQ, just as I continue to control opponents and dominate every second.

UFC 309: Paul Craig vs. Bo Nickal

“At the moment I have an undefeated candidate in front of me with Bo Nickal. These are the fights that get me excited,” said Craig. “The one where I’m the underdog and everyone says, ‘Paul Craig is going to lose.’ That’s when I do my best work.”

“Bo Nickal is a tough opponent, but he’s never faced anyone as experienced as me,” Craig added. “If you look at Bo’s track record in mixed martial arts, it’s a very nice track record, but he’s not experienced and he hasn’t faced the same level of competition that I have. Not only that, he hasn’t been in the Octagon that long. You think about 6-0 and you think about the actual time he spent there, you get 15 minutes and he does it in two or three minutes. I’ve been there, blood, sweet, tears. I was able to take myself to deep water and survive, and that’s where we’ll find out if he’s capable of doing that. Can he go into deep water and survive?

UFC 309 betting odds: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

When the UFC first announced this bout, the betting line had Bo Nickal as a -910 favorite over the +600 Paul Craig. Since then, the betting line has shifted. Today, Nickal is the -1667 favorite over Craig, who comes in as the +560 underdog.

UFC 309 predictions and picks: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

The easy choice is for Bo Nickal to win, but that choice has little value given current betting odds. Craig is a crafty grappler, but his offense is little more than serviceable. I expect Nickal’s takedown game and Craig’s willingness to hit the mat will have the fighters on the ground for much of this fight, and that’s where Nickal will use ground strikes to get the TKO finish .

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