NFL Week 1 fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em

• Roof Prescott has a tough match in week 1: Prescott will have a very good match Cleveland Browns defense in week 1. The Cowboys quarterback struggled to put up good fantasy numbers against top-10 defenses last season.

• Chuba Hubbard is the clear starter for the Carolina Panthers: Of Jonathan Brooks Through the first four weeks of the season, Hubbard will be a valuable fantasy starter.

• Discover your advantage with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our fantasy tools throughout the season, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly forecasts, the Start-Sit Optimizer, and more. Sign up now!

Estimated reading time: 15 minutes

Deciding who should go first or who should sit can be as simple as checking PFF Rankings and pick the highest-ranked player. This start/sit column goes a step further and examines why a typical starter might struggle in a given week or why an overlooked player might perform well. While typical starters often remain the best choices, we also focus on those borderline players who are worth considering.

Click here to jump to a position:
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K

QUARTERBACKS

START

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Daniels should be a fantasy starter every week regardless of his opponent.

Daniels earned a 91.5 PFF rushing grade during his college career, the highest among Power Five quarterbacks in the last decade. He also leads the position in missed tackles forced during that same span.

In addition to his superior rushing ability, Daniels scrambled far more than any other quarterback, with 258 career scrambles — the most in the last decade. The closest player had only 180.

This could result in more rushing attempts and big runs from Daniels than other rushing quarterbacks. Every quarterback with 100 or more rushing attempts over the last 10 years has averaged at least 18 fantasy points per start — a number Daniels should easily reach.

His qualities as a passer should not be overlooked either, as he best mechanics of all the passers in the class. He posted a respectable 84.0 career passing grade in college, and while we shouldn’t expect him to reach Jalen Hurts’ current level of passing, he could be better than Hurts was as a rookie.

The commanders are confronted with a Tampa Bay Book Hunters defense that allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. He should be in the starting lineup even if it’s a tougher defense, but this presents an even better opportunity.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

The Lions will face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 without Aaron Donald. And according to PFF’s strength of planning toolthis is the seventh best QB matchup of the week.

Last season, the Rams allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

The Bears will take on the Tennessee Titanswho had the fourth-fewest pressures as a team last season, and also had the fourth-fewest sacks and hits.

Last season, Tennessee’s leader in pressure Denico Autrywho is no longer on the list. His replacement, Sebastian Joseph-Hello, registered a personal record of 25 pushes in 2023.

Last year at USC, Williams earned a passing grade of 93.4 when not under pressure, but that dropped to 38.9 when he was under pressure.

TO SIT

Roof Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott’s fantasy performance was wildly inconsistent last year. He finished as a top-four quarterback in seven games but was QB16 or worse in another seven, with only three finishes between QB5 and QB15.

His success was largely due to the quality of the opposing defense. In games in which he finished in the top four, he faced defenses that were average to worst at allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks, with an average ranking of 24th. Conversely, in all five games against top-10 defenses in preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks, Prescott finished outside the top 15.

According to our strength of schedule tool, the Cowboys have the sixth-worst quarterback matchup this week.

The Browns allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. The team retained Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator, and nine of the 10 defenders who played at least 500 snaps last season remain on the roster. The Browns should remain one of the best defenses this season, which will limit Prescott’s output in Week 1.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

According to our strength of schedule tool, the 49ers have the worst QB matchup of the week. The Jets allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season.

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

The Jets have the second-worst matchup for quarterbacks this weekaccording to our strength of planning tool. The 49ers allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season.

RUNNINGBACKS

START

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

Hubbard gradually emerged as the Panthers’ featured back last season. Beginning in Week 12, he was the primary option in all situations, playing at least 64 percent of the snaps in every game, including more than 80 percent in one. During that stretch, he finished RB27 or better in each of the final seven games, with two top-12 fantasy finishes.

The Panthers have made a draft Jonathan Brooks as their running back of the future, but he is still injured and will miss at least the first four games of the season. This leaves Hubbard at the top of the depth chart once again.

Carolina played its starters for one drive in the preseason. Hubbard played 10 of the 12 offensive snaps, with Mile Sanders and take the other two.

It’s possible the Panthers weren’t planning on heavily rotating their running backs in the preseason, suggesting Hubbard and Sanders might be more evenly matched. However, Sanders was limited in practice on Wednesday due to a finger injury, which could result in Hubbard actually playing more than usual in Week 1.

The Panthers are facing a New Orleans Saints defense that was average against the run last season. Four of the Saints’ six linebackers appeared on the initial injury report, including two reserves who missed practice. With this matchup expected to be more competitive than most of the Panthers’ games last season, Carolina should have a chance to stick with its ground game.

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