NFL offseason power rankings: No. 12 Miami Dolphins have some unfinished business

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There have been 17,665 games in NFL history, according to Pro Football Reference. Exactly once has a team gained 700 yards and scored 70 points in a single game.

Even the 2023 Miami Dolphins couldn’t believe they did it.

“This isn’t compared to anything that I’ve seen or been a part of,” quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said.

“Seventy points is crazy — our stats are like video game-type stuff,” running back De’Von Achane said. “I’ve never been on this side of it.”

It was an impressive and memorable day, the second 700-yard game (1951 Los Angeles Rams being the other) and the fourth 70-point game (1940 Chicago Bears, 1966 Washington, 1950 Rams) ever. And the Dolphins did both on the same day. It’s possible we might never see it again. It took until the NFL’s 104th season for it to happen the first time.

In some ways, that fun and creative offense is what we should remember about the 2023 Dolphins. No, they weren’t the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams as you might have heard at times last year, but they were exciting. And good. They were second in the NFL in points and first in yardage. Mike McDaniel’s team always seemed to have a big play to dial up when they wanted it.

And yet, it felt empty at the end. There was no AFC East title, which Miami blew down the stretch. There wasn’t a playoff win either. The Dolphins lost 26-7 in freezer-like conditions to the Kansas City Chiefs. Miami is still looking for its first playoff win since 2000 and its first division title since 2008. Even the 11 regular season wins feel light since only one came against a winning team.

“We didn’t get the results that we wanted,” McDaniel said after the season. “We feel good about our process, but everything has to be really evaluated.”

Because of the way the 2023 season ended, losing four of their last six including a 56-19 embarrassment at the Baltimore Ravens, blowing a fourth-quarter lead in a Week 18 AFC East title game against the Buffalo Bills and then the uncompetitive playoff loss at Kansas City, the progress since McDaniel was hired might be overshadowed. Miami made the playoffs after a five-year absence in McDaniel’s first season, then last season won 11 games and earned consecutive playoff appearances for the first time since 2001. McDaniel has shown he is an excellent coach, particularly on offense. It’s just worth wondering if the next step is forward.

There are two ways to look at this season’s Dolphins. Many of the biggest pieces from that 11-6 team return, including offensive stars like quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. Therefore the Dolphins should be able to pick up where they left off. Injuries were a big part of the late-season fade, and that is usually bad luck that doesn’t necessarily repeat. But it wasn’t a great offseason as salary cap reality set in — there were three players who switched teams this offseason to get a deal of $100 million or more, and two of them left the Dolphins — and maybe Miami just blew its best chance for a truly special year. Things change too quickly in the NFL to assume anything can repeat.

This season will say a lot about whether the Dolphins are going to stick as a playoff team and possibly a contender for a while. Miami was already juggling its salary cap this offseason, before getting to Tagovailoa’s future. Tagovailoa’s new four-year, $212.5 million deal will be another challenge heading forward for the Dolphins, but at least they have an answer at quarterback.

Everything has been on an upward turn since McDaniel was hired. The Dolphins hope that last season’s collapse wasn’t the start of a new trajectory.

Offseason grade

The Dolphins had a ton of free agency movement, coming in and going out. Miami had two big free-agent losses. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins got $110 million from the Raiders and guard Robert Hunt got $100 million from the Panthers. Those two, along with Kirk Cousins, were the only three players to get more than $100 million to switch teams this offseason. Even if Wilkins and Hunt were overpaid — to be clear, they were — they were still big losses on the interior of Miami’s offensive and defensive lines. The Dolphins have some big-name talent and it caught up to their salary cap this offseason. Other losses like cornerback Xavien Howard, linebacker Jerome Baker, pass rusher Andrew Van Ginkel, safety Brandon Jones and defensive tackle Raekwon Davis will probably sting too.

The Dolphins did add players. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks, center Aaron Brewer, cornerback Kendall Fuller (a great value at $15 million over two years), tight end Jonnu Smith, defensive lineman Calais Campbell and receiver Odell Beckham Jr. will help offset the losses. Edge rusher Shaq Barrett was expected to help too, but he retired in July. Experts weren’t too fired up about the Dolphins’ draft, giving a consensus grade that ranked 23rd in the NFL. First-round pick Chop Robinson is an athletic but unproductive pass rusher from Penn State. Second-round pick Patrick Paul is a huge offensive lineman from Houston. The Dolphins somewhat surprisingly drafted running back Jaylen Wright in the fourth round, perhaps as insurance if Raheem Mostert slows down or De’Von Achane can’t stay healthy. Overall, it seems like the Dolphins lost more than they gained.

Grade: C-

Quarterback report

Tua Tagovailoa was robbed of NFL Comeback Player of the Year. It’s easy to forget that last offseason, a regular conversation centered around Tagovailoa’s concussions and his future (last season’s Dolphins preview focused on Tagovailoa’s health concerns). Tagovailoa said he considered retirement, but came back and played at a near MVP level. That’s not a better comeback story than Joe Flacco and his five starts? Regardless of the terrible way that award is voted on, Tagovailoa had a season that deserved to be celebrated.

Tagovailoa led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards. He had 29 touchdowns and a 101.1 passer rating. Tagovailoa’s 97.1 career passer rating is tied for 12th all-time among qualified passers, right ahead of Steve Young and Peyton Manning. Even if passer rating isn’t a great stat to compare quarterbacks across eras, Tagovailoa has become a remarkably productive passer. He was in the MVP conversation for most of last season and it was justified. He won’t get the credit he has earned because many analysts don’t like to backtrack on their takes, and the narrative on Tagovailoa early in his career was that he was a terrible pick ahead of Justin Herbert. But a career comparison with Herbert now is a lot closer than you’d be led to believe.

“We’re strong believers in him,” Dolphins general manager Chris Grier said. “And you guys all feel Mike’s passion about him when he talks about him. Just in the two years of what he’s done, he’s grown in areas to where he led the league in passing and did some great things this year. And we all feel there’s still another level he can take it.”

BetMGM odds breakdown

In the eyes of oddsmakers (and these offseason power rankings), the Dolphins have been passed by the Jets in the AFC East. The Dolphins are +200 to win the AFC East at BetMGM, behind the Bills (+165) and Jets (+190). Their win total of 9.5 and playoff odds (Miami making the playoffs has -155 odds) indicates that the Dolphins haven’t fallen too far, but some. On the player side of the odds, Tyreek Hill is the favorite to lead the NFL in receiving yards at +500 and he’s second in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds behind Christian McCaffrey, at +800.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “We’re entering Year 5 of the Tua Tagovailoa experience and it’s still difficult to discern how good he really is. One thing is certain — he hasn’t become an elite fantasy quarterback.

“Despite leading the NFL in YPA and quarterback rating two years ago and topping the league in passing yards last year, Tagovailoa has never charted higher than QB9. Tagovailoa is a reluctant runner and the Dolphins score a lot of their touchdowns on the ground.

“Part of it comes down to physical tools — Tagovailoa has ordinary arm strength and is undersized for the position, a modest 6-foot-1. He also struggled against better competition last year; most of his stronger starts came against lesser teams. If you want to slot Tagovailoa as a QB2 in a Superflex format, it might fit some roster builds. But if your league requires just one starter at the position, I’d like you to aim for a higher ceiling.”

Stat to remember

When you talk about the Dolphins’ 2023 season, it’s hard to avoid their lack of quality wins. The Dolphins were 10-1 against teams that didn’t have a winning record and 1-6 against winning teams. The only win over a good team was a Week 16 victory over the Cowboys that came on a field goal as time expired. There’s nothing wrong with a 22-20 home win over Dallas, but the Dolphins came that close to not having one quality win all season.

“I just think it’s a combination of things,” general manager Chris Grier said after the season. “We’ve played some good football teams and a majority of the games were fairly close late in the game, and for various reasons, we weren’t able to pull it out and win it.”

Being unable to beat a good opponent became a glaring deficiency late in the season when the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs beat Miami in games that had huge stakes for the Dolphins. Given the extreme splits against good and bad teams last season, it’s fair to wonder if the Dolphins’ 11-6 record was a mirage and unsustainable. The good news is Miami has the eighth easiest schedule this season via NFL analyst Warren Sharp. We know the Dolphins are adept at beating bad teams.

Burning question: Will the Dolphins’ defense be good enough?

Whether it was defensive coordinator Vic Fangio wanting to leave to the Eagles, personality conflicts with players or a difference in philosophy with Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins abruptly parted ways with Fangio after last season. McDaniel’s initial statement said when the Dolphins “assessed the season, it became apparent” that parting ways would be best for both parties. Then at the NFL scouting combine McDaniel said the change “wasn’t anticipated.” Fangio took a job with the Eagles one day after parting with the Dolphins.

Whatever happened, the Dolphins had to replace a very good coordinator. They hired Anthony Weaver, who was a respected assistant with the Ravens and a part of the suddenly growing Mike Macdonald defensive coaching tree. Personnel-wise, the Dolphins have some intriguing talent, especially in the secondary. Jalen Ramsey is still one of the NFL’s best corners, Kendall Fuller was a solid addition at corner alongside Ramsey and safety Jevon Holland had a fantastic 2023. The returns of Jaelan Phillips from a torn Achilles and Bradley Chubb from a torn ACL (those injuries were a big reason the Dolphins faded late) will be huge for the pass rush and the defense as a whole. It’s a pretty good bet the Dolphins offense will be among the best in the NFL. Last season Miami finished 19th in defensive DVOA, and whether Weaver’s defense is better or worse than that mark could determine if the Dolphins make it back to the playoffs.

Best-case scenario

What if the Dolphins hadn’t blown a 14-point lead in the final three minutes of a Week 14 game against the Tennessee Titans last season? They’d have finished with 12 wins, an AFC East title and they’d have played their first playoff game in sunny South Florida instead of a wind chill of minus-27 at Kansas City. There’s no guarantee they’d have won that home playoff game, but either way, we’d probably think about the Dolphins differently. We have seen the Dolphins’ offense cook in the running game and the passing game with a defense that’s good enough to win games. There’s no reason to believe the offense can’t lead the NFL in yardage again. Tua Tagovailoa shouldn’t be questioned anymore, Tyreek Hill could go for 2,000 yards, Jaylen Waddle is one of the best No. 2 receivers in the NFL and the running game with Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane and perhaps rookie Jaylen Wright will be very good again. The Dolphins led the NFL in yards per carry last season and that could repeat. Despite the old and dusty cliche, offense generally wins championships and Miami has plenty of that. If everything breaks right the Dolphins could finally win the AFC East and be in Super Bowl contention.

Nightmare scenario

Let’s not forget that just a year ago everyone was worried about Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion history. It’s not fun to discuss but that’s still part of his story. The stakes get even higher with his health when you consider Tagovailoa’s contract status. Even if Tagovailoa stays healthy, things could regress for the Dolphins. While it’s a skill to consistently beat losing teams, Miami’s record against winning teams last season indicates they weren’t nearly as good as most 11-win squads. There’s a reason the odds have the Dolphins as the third-place team in the AFC East. If the defense takes a step back with some key players leaving and coordinator Vic Fangio departing as well, maybe Miami loses enough high-scoring games to miss the playoffs. Given how last season started with such promise and finished with a thud, missing the postseason would be hard to swallow.

The crystal ball says …

Don’t forget that the AFC is loaded. If you don’t win your division, competition for wild card spots will be rugged. I don’t think Miami wins its division, which clouds its postseason outlook. The way Miami’s 2023 season played out, with a surprising lack of quality wins, is a bit concerning. There’s very little doubt that Miami’s offense will be very good again, health permitting. For now, I have the Dolphins in the top seven of the AFC and therefore in the playoff field, but it’s not a strong endorsement of Miami. The Dolphins will need to collect some quality wins early to solidify themselves as a contender in the AFC East, much less a Super Bowl contender.