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NBA teams that will exceed expectations this season. Plus contract year watch + WNBA playoffs

VaselineOctober 2, 2024

0 6 minutes read

NBA teams that will exceed expectations this season. Plus contract year watch + WNBA playoffs

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I’ve seen the movie “Megalopolis” so you don’t have to. I can’t stress enough that it’s worse than you’ve been told.

Take over! Teams that must exceed expectations

The time has come, bouncers! We are less than three weeks away from the start of the 2024-2025 NBA season. You know what that means, right? No, I’m not leading you into a Ben Simmons discussion (more on him later). And I don’t want to talk about second aprons for at least three months. I’m talking about over/unders!

Our friend John Hollinger went to the lab to give you five teams that he thinks will surpass their BetMGM win totals for this season. Granted, he went 1-for-5 last season, but that was just bad luck! (It’s hard.) For this season, I agree with three of his picks, and I have a handful of my own teams to believe in (or not):

Agree with Hollinger: take over!

Sunbathing | 46.5 wins: The Mike Budenholzer Effect! Remember, regular season betting has nothing to do with his postseason struggles. He is an excellent regular season coach and the Suns finally have point guards. This is an easy one.
Thunder | 56.5 wins: Unless half of this roster decides to go back to high school because they still have eligibility, I don’t see the Thunder winning fewer than 60 games. Last year they won 57 games and this season they added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Pistons | 24.5 wins: Monty Williams was just so bad as a coach last season. JB Bickerstaff is a very good coach, and there is no way the Pistons can be as terrible as they were last year. A 25-win team isn’t good, but this is at least a 25-win team.

Five teams I’m keeping an eye on

Grizzlies | 47.5 wins: Don’t know! I had a good feeling about the foregoing before yesterday’s news of Jaren Jackson Jr.’s hamstring injury. We don’t know the extent yet, so I would avoid this completely for now.
Wizards | 20.5 wins: Down! Unless Jordan Poole has matured tremendously, I can’t look at this roster and think there are even 20 wins on the horizon. I don’t think Malcolm Brogdon will be available enough to make up for Tyus Jones’ departure.
Tracks | 36.5 wins: Over! Chris Paul almost always has a big impact in his first year with a team. Sure, it’s not the same CP3 at 39, but it’s not the same Victor Wembanyama either. This is a 40-win team.
Warriors | 43.5 wins: Over! Granted, I’m counting on Draymond Green not getting suspended much, but this is a 45-win team – or better.
Celtic | 58.5 wins: Over! I don’t care about Kristaps Porziņģis’ injury. Without other major injuries, the defending champions should easily reach 60 wins.

The latest news from Shams: More details on the Wolves-Knicks deal

The trade between the Timberwolves and Knicks involving former All-Stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Julius Randle is almost official and we’ve learned more details about the blockbuster move.

The Hornets are involved as the third team and will receive three second-round selections (two via the Knicks and one via Minnesota), along with DaQuan Jeffries, Charlie Brown and Duane Washington Jr., to complete the trade, league sources tell Jon Krawczynski. , Fred Katz and me.

According to those sources, Charlotte is also trading James Nnaji, the No. 31 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, to New York to complete the deal.

Wendell Cruz / Imagn images

Best behavior: Keep an eye on these players in contract years

Speaking of betting: bet on yourself! That’s the phrase everyone likes to overuse when a player is trying to prove his worth on the field before free agency. And you can often get great basketball seasons from those players.

As we enter this season, there are 15 notable players who will or could be free agents in the summer of 2025. (Minus LeBron, because come on, he’s not abandoning his kid.) There are player options to decide! There are extensions that can be signed! Or they can bet on himself and take it to a free agency. Let’s break it down:

Downright free agents 🤑

Ben Simmons, Nets: After this season, he will have earned over $200 million in his career. So he’s not hurting because of money (I think). If the 28-year-old wants any kind of payday next summer on a short-term contract, he needs to actually play – and play well.
Brandon Ingram, Pelicans: Will he be traded or will he spend the year with the Pels? He’s their second-best player, but things are getting a little crowded around the perimeter. Above all, the 27-year-old must be healthy.
Brook Lopez, Bucks: The 36-year-old Giant can still command a healthy salary, and his back appears to be fine. He could be in high demand if the Bucks don’t give him an extension.
Myles Turner, Pacers: The team is in a corner and they need to give the 28-year-old Turner a huge reward to keep him. If he plays well, he has a chance to become one of the top free agents.
Bruce Brown Jr., Raptors: I’m not sure if he’ll get more than $20 million annually in his next deal, but the 28-year-old could be traded and still have a big impact on winning.

Has a player option and should pick it up 👍

Jimmy Butler, Heat | $52.4 million option: Unfortunately no hair scandals on media day. However, the 35-year-old would be foolish to turn down $50 million next season. He wants one more payday.
Julius Randle, Timberwolves | $30.9 million option: Tobias Harris just got $52 million over two years, but I still think Randle, 29, should take his option anyway.
Khris Middleton, Bucks | $34 million option: The 33-year-old has already struggled with injuries this season. Submit the paperwork now.

Has a player option and should decline 👎

Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves | $46.7 million option: Karl-Anthony Towns is gone. The Wolves have committed to Gobert as their big man. The 32-year-old should refuse and be given a new four-year contract.
Kyrie Irving, Mavericks | $44 million option: If he has another season like last year, the Mavs can’t afford to let him walk. Irving, 32, could still get a monster deal.
James Harden, Clippers | $36.3 million option: Paul George is gone. Kawhi Leonard is hurt. At 35, James wants to be Houston Harden again. Make the Clippers pay you.
Aaron Gordon, Nuggets | $22.8 million option: Once KCP left, the Nuggets couldn’t afford to lose Gordon. The 29-year-old could be paid more than $35 million annually.
Naz Reid, Timberwolves | $15 million option: Cities have disappeared. They won’t sign Randle long term. Reid, 25, could come out like he did last year and easily make nine figures next summer.
Dorian Finney-Smith, Nets | $15.4 million option: When you’re 31, you just leave Brooklyn and get paid as a 3-and-D wing.

Team option that should not be picked up ⛔

Wendell Cruz / Imagn images

WNBA Playoffs: Freedom on course for a coronation

Don’t look now, but we are one step closer to seeing a new champion in the WNBA. After last night’s action, we have some stars on the ropes and a real battle between Connecticut and Minnesota. Let’s take a look at the New York Liberty’s win over the defending champion Las Vegas Aces, and what’s going on between the Sun and the Lynx. (Reminder! This round contains best-of-five series.)

Freedom 88, Aces 84 | Liberty leads series 2-0: We didn’t see a heroic effort from Breanna Stewart in this one, but the Liberty dominated for most of the game and survived a series of chances for the Aces to level the series before heading back to Sin City. Sabrina Ionescu was fantastic, leading the way with 24 points, nine rebounds and five assists. She had 11 of those 24 points in the fourth quarter, and the Aces did very little to help A’ja Wilson (24 points, seven rebounds, four assists).

The Liberty have made it to the WNBA Finals five times in their history and have never won a title. They are still four wins away from victory, but they need to put the champions on the road. They can do that by continuing to attack.

Lynx 77, Sun 70 | Series tied at 1-1: Likewise, no huge numbers for Napheesa Collier in this one. She only had nine points on fourteen shots, but did show up with twelve boards, five assists and four blocks. The Lynx were sloppy with the ball, turning it over 15 times. They survived an ugly 12-10 first quarter. But Minnesota controlled the entire game to avoid an 0-2 hole to Connecticut. Courtney Williams took over in the second half and led the team with 17 points on the night. And the Lynx survived a late attack from the sun. Connecticut did what they came to do: get a split. Now Minnesota must take back home court.

Game 3 for both series is Friday night (Watch on ESPN2 and stream on Fubo.)