NASCAR at Pocono odds and expert predictions: The usual suspects are favorites, but who needs this win most?

It’s “Tricky Triangle” time! The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Long Pond, Penn., this week for the Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway. The race is unique among NASCAR tracks because of its triangular shape and three dramatically different turns.

Our NASCAR experts Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi break down what makes this race so special and answer our questions about the Cup Playoff picture, what we learned from the Chicago street race, and what their favorites and uncertain expectations are for this week.

NASCAR at Pocono is scheduled for Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on USA.

The Chicago Street Race is notable for the fans who show up: Jeff reported that race president Julie Giese said that ticket buyers represented 23 different countries and that 60 percent of ticket buyers had never bought a NASCAR ticket before. Do you think that kind of attention makes another big-city street race attractive to NASCAR executives? Will this always be an outlier?

Jeff: It’s at the heart of why NASCAR would spend $50 million on a race like this. A street circuit that brings the race to the people undoubtedly reaches a different demographic of fans than the typical NASCAR event. And while traditional fans might bristle at that, it’s vital to the growth of the sport; with 85 percent of last year’s ticket buyers going to NASCAR for the first time and about 60 percent this year, it’s indicative of an audience that might never have given NASCAR a chance otherwise. While it’s expensive for NASCAR, it’s essentially a giant marketing tool. You can show all the ads and TV races you want, but actually getting people to the racetrack is what really creates lifelong fans. The excitement of NASCAR absolutely has to be experienced in person, and this does that.

Jordan: A race in downtown Chicago is a big deal. It feels like an event; a kind of energy that not many other races on the Cup schedule can match. The upside is too great not to want to continue it for the foreseeable future. Of course, staging an event of this magnitude comes with a hefty price tag. And it’s those expenses that will weigh heavily on whether NASCAR continues racing on a street course, whether it’s in Chicago or elsewhere.

Jordan wrote about how important the win in Chicago is for Alex Bowman, who hasn’t won a game since March 2022. Is one win enough to erase all concerns about his position on the team? Do you think he’s on an upward trajectory?

Jeff: One thing that is always important to remember when talking about a driver’s job security is sponsorship. Aric Almirola, for example, had undying loyalty from sponsor Smithfield and made a career out of it. I’m not saying that Ally is as committed to Bowman as Smithfield is to Almirola, but there is no question that Ally loves Bowman. He fits perfectly with their marketing initiatives and is an ideal ambassador for their brand. So if the sponsor is happy and he is doing well enough, what more is needed? Yes, he had been without a win recently while his teammates were doing well. But it’s not like he was 25th in points and crashing every week. Bowman would probably make the play-offs even without this win, so for me there wasn’t much of a change in the making. And now that he has a win, it should only confirm the status quo of the #48 team.

Jordan: One win doesn’t necessarily change anything, as Hendricks CEO Jeff Gordon indicated Sunday night that Bowman would always be back next year. But what the win does do is relieve the pressure that has built on Bowman and the No. 48 team, a level of pressure that can reach a point where it’s paralyzing. As Gordon and crew chief Blake Harris said Sunday night, the team can now be freer to chase wins instead of worrying about failing and missing the playoffs.

Bowman’s win doesn’t change the cut line, but it does move him out of the danger zone of falling. What does the playoff picture look like with six races to go? What are the odds of someone winning under the cut line? How much danger are there for Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher?

Jeff: I’d be shocked if Truex misses at this point. He’s 125 points ahead at the cut line with six races to go, and he’d still be over 70 points ahead with a new winner. Gibbs is also in relatively good shape, assuming there aren’t multiple new winners in the coming weeks. With Bowman out of the bubble and Bubba Wallace seemingly in a must-win situation, it’ll come down to Chastain and Buescher if there’s another new winner from below the line. Chastain and Buscher are only eight points apart, so it could be quite the battle if there’s an upset. And let’s face it, with Daytona still on the playoff schedule, there’s certainly a chance someone could steal a playoff spot.

Jordan: Barring a free fall coupled with a new winner or two, Truex and Gibbs should be considered virtual certainties to make the playoffs. The same can’t be said for Chastain and Buescher, both of whom are in danger of falling below the cut line. The positive news for them is that the list of realistic winners who aren’t yet eligible for the playoffs is short. And Daytona is the only “wild card” track left of the six remaining in the regular season.

Noob Question of the Week: In F1, winning pole position is a huge advantage to winning the race. In NASCAR, the pole winner only has one win this entire season (William Byron at COTA) if you don’t count the non-point races (the Clash and All-Star). Can you explain that to a new fan?

Jeff: One characteristic of NASCAR racing is that the best car doesn’t always win. As discussed here recently, the fastest car in the race usually only wins about half the time. This goes a step further when you’re talking about pole position, because the pole winner often doesn’t have the fastest car for the weekend. A team can use a short run setup and be blazing fast for an entire lap, but that doesn’t mean the car will be that fast on a long green-flag run. So while the pole sitter certainly has an advantage (no. 1 pit stall selection, clean air, and a good track position to start the race), it doesn’t guarantee much. Whereas in F1, passing is much harder and the best cars are light years better than the mid-pack, winning pole position is much more likely to correlate with a win.

What do you like most about the Pocono race?

Jeff: It’s quirky. The “Tricky Triangle” is such a strange, unique place. I used to hate it when there were two 500-mile races less than two months apart. But now, with just one 400-mile race per season, it definitely feels like NASCAR will be there for years to come. The track organizers have done a great job with their fan zone and campground, and it’s just a very laid back environment overall. Plus, it’s the closest track to New York City (only two hours from the heart of Manhattan to the track, depending on traffic).

Jordan: It’s such a unique track that it’s unlike any other on the schedule. Sure, Indianapolis has some similarities, but it’s definitely not triangular. Another aspect of Pocono that Jeff touched on, but that bears mentioning again, is how fan-friendly the track is and what a great fan support it gets every year.

Who would you like to see win on Sunday?

Jeff: The next two weeks will see us back to the all-time favorites. Both Pocono and Indianapolis have long straights and flat corners that are demanding on the engines. I think whoever is good at Pocono will be good at Indianapolis. And if it’s anyone other than Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing who are in the top five, I’d be pretty surprised. I think we’ll be looking at a mix of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron and Christopher Bell over the next few weeks. But real-world experience will tell us a lot more, including whether Ford’s resurgence translates from shorter tracks to larger ovals (or triangles). So if possible, wait until Saturday practice before making your picks to see if Hendrick or JGR has the upper hand.

Jordan: Pocono is a track where the usual suspects do well, as factors like horsepower, handling, strategy and a fast, error-free pit crew are essential elements to doing well here. So expect the teams/drivers Jeff mentioned to be the favorites to win on Sunday. Another name worth mentioning is Tyler Reddick of 23XI Racing, who has come close to winning the last two races and has the skills and team to beat Hendrick and JGR.

Who do you think is an outsider for Pocono?

Jeff: I don’t like long shots this week, but I’d go as low as the group of drivers at +3000 (Bowman, Wallace, Buescher, Joey Logano). Depending on what RFK Racing brings, Buescher could absolutely win at Pocono. Remember, he narrowly lost to Larson in the all-time close finish at Kansas in May, and RFK showed strength again at Darlington (Buescher’s teammate Brad Keselowski won that one). And honestly, those were the last two full-time bigger tracks to race at. So I wouldn’t underestimate Buescher’s chances at all, and it’s also surprising to see Bowman available in this category.

Jordan: Another overlooked driver is Ross Chastain at +2500. Chastain’s results don’t necessarily indicate it, but he’s had a lot more speed in recent weeks to make it seem like he’s on the verge of his first win of the season. And as outlined above, he needs a win given his precarious spot in the playoff bubble.

Chances for NASCAR at Pocono race winner

Odds are updated live via BetMGM.

(Photo of Ross Chastain: Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)