Napheesa Collier deserves serious consideration for WNBA MVP over A’ja Wilson, and here’s why

A few weeks ago, the race for MVP seemed over. A’ja Wilson was in the midst of a historically dominant season (and still is), and no other WNBA player could match her individual stats.

But what Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx did this month demands that this race be reexamined, despite the fact that there is still a significant gap between Collier’s and Wilson’s statistics.

Both Collier and Wilson have had tremendous individual success this season, and both have established themselves as some of the best players in the league. Wilson is averaging 27.1 points per game on a 53.3% effective field goal percentage, while Collier is averaging 20.8 points on a 53.4% ​​eFG%. Both are among the league’s best rebounders — Wilson averaged 11.7, Collier 9.9 — and both anchor their teams both offensively and defensively.

In a normal year, either candidate would be a compelling contender for the highest individual honor in women’s basketball. This year, it’s more exciting than talked about. Wilson clearly has a significant edge in scoring, as underscored by a 42-point outing against the Wings earlier this week. But the difference between the two team success warrants Collier taking a closer look at MVP. And maybe, just maybe, she’s done enough to actually receive it.

The Lynx have been good this season – really good

To put it simply, Minnesota is in the midst of an incredible regular season. After finishing last year with the 6th-best record in the league, the Lynx have far exceeded expectations heading into the 2024 season. They haven’t lost a game since July 14th and recently passed the Sun for the second-best record in the league, now trailing only the New York Liberty.

Napheesa Collier is the engine that makes it all go. With Collier in the lineup, the Lynx are 21-5 this season, which would give them the best winning percentage of any team in the WNBA (80.7%).

Meanwhile, Las Vegas sits seven games behind Minnesota in the WNBA standings, with an 18-12 record (a 60% winning percentage). Currently the fifth seed, they have won just two of six games since the Olympic break.

The Lynx’ success isn’t all down to Collier. Kayla McBride and Alanna Smith have both had great seasons, and the team as a whole is shooting a blistering 39.2 percent of its three-pointers. Courtney Williams has been crucial in big games, and Bridget Carleton is somehow shooting 43.9 percent of her three-pointers.

But this Lynx team is far from a superteam — they’ve had just two All-Stars this season, while most other playoff teams have had at least three, including the Aces (4), Sun (3), Liberty (3), Mercury (3) and Fever (3). This isn’t a team that’s been there before.

Photo by Kate Frese/NBAE via Getty Images

Napheesa Collier is a plus-minus machine for Minnesota

Plus-minus isn’t a perfect stat, but it helps paint a picture of just how much better the Lynx have been with Collier on the court than the Aces have been with Wilson. At +9.5 per game, Collier has the second-best plus-minus in the entire league (trailing only Liberty’s Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, who has a plus-minus of +10.1). Wilson, meanwhile, ranks outside of the top 25 players in plus-minus; the Aces have outscored opponents by +3.5 when she’s been on the court.

There’s also the reality that Collier outscored Wilson individually both times the two teams faced off last week. In the first game between the Aces and Lynx in August, Collier outscored Wilson (23 points to 15) and Minnesota emerged victorious. A few days later, on August 23, the Lynx defeated the Aces again, 87-74, and Collier exploded for 27 points and a career-high 18 rebounds — more rebounds than the entire Aces team combined. Wilson, who scored 24 points that night, only managed seven.

After Minnesota’s consecutive losses to the Aces — and their continued rise up the standings — it would be unfair to overlook Collier.

Napheesa Collier vs A’ja Wilson Comparison in Defense

A’ja Wilson has a slight edge in “stocks” (steals and blocks) — she’s averaging 2.7 blocks and 1.9 steals, while Collier is averaging 1.4 blocks and 1.9 steals. But those stats matter less when you consider that the Lynx’s defense has been considerably better than the Aces’ this season, with Napheesa Collier having a much better defensive rating (91.5) than Wilson (100.6). Defense, of course, encompasses more than one player, but stocks aren’t an entirely accurate picture either.

Napheesa Collier’s MVP case rests largely on the Lynx’ team success — but that alone is a pretty strong case to have. In the last 10 years, only one WNBA player has won the MVP despite not being a top-two seed: Elena Delle Donne, who won the MVP in 2015 as a member of the #4-seed Chicago Sky.

Outside of Delle Donne, every other winner in the past decade has come from a top-two seed, with six of the last seven winners representing the very best team in the league. The last time a WNBA player outside of the top four teams in the WNBA was named MVP was 2008, when Candace Parker was a member of the Sparks.

If the Lynx keep winning, Collier keeps dominating and the Aces keep falling, there’s no clear reason to break the pattern of selecting top teams for MVPs. Napheesa Collier could very well earn votes if her excellent play in August continues. And if she can make up some ground on the scoring differential between her and Wilson during the final quarter of the regular season, she could very well be the favorite.