MLB wild card series Day 3: Mets-Brewers updates, analysis

After the other three MLB wild-card series ended in sweeps, all eyes are on Milwaukee, where the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers meet in a Game 3 showdown on Thursday night. The winner gets a National League Division Series date with the Philadelphia Phillies, and the loser goes home.

Which side is the edge? We’ll bring you predictions, keys, lineups, live updates and analysis as the matches are played, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.

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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, 7pm ET, ESPN

Pitching match: Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA) vs. Tobias Myers (9-6, 3.00 ERA)

What’s the key to Game 3 for the Mets?

David Schoenfield: A key will be how manager Carlos Mendoza strategizes the late innings. He didn’t get Edwin Diaz closer to a six-out save in Game 2 like he did against the Braves on Monday, but Diaz now has two days off after throwing 40 pitches in that game and 26 the day before. Phil Maton lost the lead in Game 2; he pitched four times in five days and hasn’t looked good in his past two outings (especially after sitting out Wednesday’s two home runs). The trust factor with him may be low, which will force Mendoza to consider his other relievers or even starter David Peterson (who last pitched on Sunday).

Bradford Doolittle: The Mets need to find some long ball power. They did a fantastic job of stringing together rallies and hitting runners in scoring position. But they haven’t gone deep yet, and it’s hard to imagine them winning again without homering in one of baseball’s most homer-friendly venues.

Jesse Rogers: Which version of Quintana will appear? Is it the one that produced a 5.63 ERA in August or the one that finished the season strong and posted a 0.72 in September? You can bet that if he starts an elimination game, the Mets will believe the most recent version is the real Quintana. Watch his curveball. If it’s on, the Mets can advance.

What’s the key to Game 3 for the Brewers?

Schoenfield: The Brewers should try to make this a bullpen game, which means increasing Quintana’s pitch count if possible. Quintana has a below-average walk rate and a below-average strikeout rate, so he’s a guy you can be patient with and not worry about him blowing you away with pure stuff. The Mets’ pen is running on fumes a bit as they’re just coming in, so that could work in Milwaukee’s favor the sooner you knock Quintana out. For the Brewers, it will be the same pitching strategy as Wednesday: don’t expect starter Tobias Myers to go very deep and rely on the bullpen that has been so good all season. And use Devin Williams for more than three outs if necessary.

Doolittle: The Brewers need to play a clean game. They’ve been one of baseball’s best defensive teams all season, but the Mets took advantage of a key deficit in a five-run inning in Game 1 and scored what could have been a decisive run on an error in Game 2. If the Brewers can keep it clean and come the middle innings, they can roll out their A bullpen and let their athletes work on the base paths. They just have to avoid rally start mistakes.

Rogers: Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen. Since the fifth-inning implosion in Game 1 — aided by poor defense — the Brewers’ pen has thrown a complete-game shutout. It took 4⅓ scoreless innings to close out Tuesday’s game, followed by 5⅓ shutout innings on Wednesday. Clearly, manager Pat Murphy won’t extend his starters past three or four innings, as evidenced by his early hooks of Freddy Peralta and Frankie Montas, so the pin will be huge one way or another in Game 3.

Who will move on to the NLDS?

Schoenfield: The Mets have overcome adversity all season: the slow start, the injury to Kodai Senga that nearly blew that game to the Braves on Monday before Francisco Lindor’s dramatic home run. I’m a little concerned about their bullpen situation late game, but I still believe in this offense. The Mets win 4-3 and advance to face the Phillies in a big showdown in the NL East.

Doolittle: This is the time of the Brewers. Milwaukee has too many bullpen weapons and more ways to win on offense. We started seeing these differences emerge on Wednesday. If the Mets don’t get off to a quick start in Game 3, I think the Brewers will win… and Milwaukee’s starter, Myers, was excellent.

Live updates

Tune in during the game for live updates and analysis from Game 3.