MLB Trade Numbers: Could Guardians and Nats Have Done Better With Lane Thomas Deal?

By Tim Britton, Brittany Ghiroli and Sam Blum

Guardians receive: FROM Lane Thomas

Subjects receive: RHP Alex Clemmey, SS José Tena, IF Rafael Ramirez

Tim Britton: How confident are the Guardians that Lane Thomas can hit right-handed pitchers? That’s essentially what this deal comes down to. Cleveland has had a lot of days up the middle and needed a daily upgrade in right. Thomas has historically been better against lefties than righties, but that spread has widened this year: a .922 OPS against lefties compared to .663 against righties. That latter number is better than what the Guardians have gotten out of right field (and out of their left-handed hitters in right field against right-handed pitchers), but not by the margin you’d want if you were moving three players the other way. For the team with the best record in the American League, a bigger shift here could have moved the needle more in October.

Washington regrets not being more aggressive in pursuing a prospect for Thomas last season, when his numbers were much better and he had an extra year of team control. Moving the outfielder then would have yielded a package on firmer ground than this one, as it all comes down to Clemmey keeping his tantalizing stuff in check, Tena making a swing change or Ramirez showing up in 2029.

Guards: C
Subjects: C+

Brittany Ghiroli: This one’s pretty meh on both sides. The Nationals left Thomas hanging a year ago, setting a high price that rival executives laughed at and keeping him in D.C. Now it looks like Washington is selling much lower, with two prospects in A-ball and Tena, a utility infielder who could join them right away. While the Nats certainly could have gotten a better haul for Thomas in 2023 when he had a year of team control left and was in the midst of the best season of his career, it’s worth noting that GM Mike Rizzo got Thomas in a relative bargain, sending Jon Lester to the Cardinals for two months.

Clemmey is certainly an asset for a Nationals team looking to play in 2025 and 2026, but he has struggled to repeat his performance and Cleveland reportedly offered him as a trade. You always wonder what was thought of the young left-handed pitcher that he would become surplus to requirements.

Thomas’ decline in power has certainly hurt his market, though his contact rate does fit Cleveland’s profile and the minimal cost of a well-thought-out Guardians system means Cleveland can — and should — make several other moves.

The Guardians — who have been quiet until now — have serious pitching holes, and their offense has sputtered of late. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Thomas is enough to shore up a sagging lineup, and it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario in which Cleveland’s front office doesn’t get some pitching help for a team that’s among the best in the American League.

Guards: B-
Subjects: C+

Sam Blum: As good as the Guardians have been this season, their offense has been mediocre at best. Cleveland has also been a minimal threat on the base paths. The addition of Thomas helps them in both areas. Will Brennan, who has the most reps in right field, has a .670 OPS this season. He has also been incredibly weak against left-handed pitching, where Thomas is at his best. It is likely that they will operate as a platoon.

Thomas will likely be curbed a bit as a stolen base threat — his 12 caught-stealings in 40 chances is high — but he still adds an element to their offense. And he can be a pinch-runner in games he doesn’t start. He’s under team control through next season.

Clemmey was a second-round draft pick by the Guardians last season and made his professional debut this year for Class-A Lynchburg. He’s still 19 years old, so making a major league impact is a long way off. But he was considered the second-best pitching prospect in Cleveland’s system. He’s walked more than six batters per inning and struck out more than 12. The Nationals also get 19-year-old shortstop Rafael Ramirez Jr. and infielder José Tena, 23, who has already made his major league debut and has plenty of potential of his own.

We can give a number today, but it will be hard to judge who has won this deal long-term. Tena is a young player the Nationals can use right away, if they want to. But the real prize in this deal for Washington — Clemmy — won’t get his chance for a while.

Guards: B+
Subjects: B-

(Photo: Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)