MLB Trade Deadline Tiers: Which teams could be — and should be — aggressive buyers and sellers

This week serves as a sort of pause for the sport of baseball. The amateur draft, followed by the All-Star Game, followed by the Hall of Fame induction ceremony feels a bit like a mid-season side quest, a break from the regular so that players and fans alike can celebrate the game’s very best at various levels.

Then, it’s full throttle toward the trade deadline.

In preparation, we’re sorting teams into preemptive trade tiers. Who’s best positioned to buy or to sell? And who is still deciding on a direction? In last year’s edition, we created a “Tailors” tier for those clubs looking to thread the needle between buying and selling.

This year, given the wide-open middle ground of the National League, we could probably lump a third of all teams into a Tailors category. Rather than do that, we’ll break down the would-be Tailors by those that seem to be trending to the buy-side and those closer to selling. They might still thread the needle, but these next two weeks could push them to pick a lane.

For now, here’s where things stand with all 30 teams as we gear up for the second half.

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Tier 1: Could be (should be?) aggressive buyers

New York Yankees

Record: 58-40

To borrow a line from The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner: The New York Yankees need help. Except for the days when Ben Rice hits three homers, the Yankees’ lineup has too often been a two-man show. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are top-of-the-charts All-Stars, but no other healthy Yankees hitter has at least 100 plate appearances with an above-average OPS+ this season.

Every infield position except shortstop presents an obvious upgrade opportunity. (Though, is there an available second baseman who’s sure to have a better second half than underperforming Gleyber Torres?) Even at first base, a right-handed complement to Rice and/or Anthony Rizzo would make sense, and they might now need an extra catcher. Like every contender, the Yankees could use another reliever, but it’s the lineup that’s most problematic — and after missing the playoffs last season, the front office is surely motivated to make some noise.

Seattle Mariners

Record: 52-46

Three things we know for certain about the Mariners: They have a ton of starting pitching, they could use some offense, and their president of baseball operations, Jerry Dipoto, is not one to sit on his hands.

A Mariners team in first place is not likely to be cautious at the deadline, and their abundance of front-line pitching could make them an interesting trade partner for another team willing to think outside the box. “I think if the Mariners could find a match for (starter) Emerson Hancock, they would trade him for an everyday bat,” Jim Bowden wrote last week. Hancock is a former sixth-overall draft pick who’s performed at the big-league level but is currently blocked by the Mariners’ deep rotation. Seattle is in the bottom third of baseball in runs per game. They need an offensive boost, and Hancock is a fascinating trade chip if Dipoto’s willing to use it.

San Diego Padres

Record: 50-49

Like the Mariners, the Padres have a tendency not to stand still. They broke open the trading season with their early-May deal for All-Star second baseman Luis Arraez, and now that they’re firmly in the wild-card hunt, there’s little reason to expect that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will stop shopping. His team needs arms almost desperately. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are out of the rotation mix and a starting pitcher is a clear need, but the Padres “may not be able to afford to wait much longer to trade for a reliever or two,” according to our Padres writer Dennis Lin. Of course, Lin also notes that “limited prospect capital and a high-demand, low-supply market for effective relievers” could be a problem for the pitch-needy Padres.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 56-41

It’s not going as scripted in Hollywood. Among the 15 players on the Dodgers IL are Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Jason Heyward (one-third of their Opening Day lineup); Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Walker Buehler (the would-be top of their rotation) and Brusdar Graterol, Joe Kelly and Ryan Brasier (three guys meant to be pitching important innings out of the bullpen). That’s on top of some of the guys the Dodgers knew were hurt going into spring training (Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May, who’s now out for the year). Some of these players are expected back soon after the All-Star break (Heyward, Glasnow, possibly Kershaw) but that still leaves a lot of uncertainty for a team that’s no doubt playing for a title.

For a team this good — and this touted — the Dodgers sure don’t have much of an outfield. In addition to that, at least one infield spot has been a problem all year, and their pitching is a bit of a mess. White Sox starter Garrett Crochet could be an interesting fit.

Tier 2: Typical buyers

Atlanta Braves

Record: 53-42

An outfield addition (and maybe more than one) seems inevitable for Atlanta, but it is unclear if that would mean an understated, practical trade (like the moves that worked so well in 2021) or a bigger splash for unmistakable impact. The recent addition of Eddie Rosario is a lower-key move. Bowden suggests four bigger names could be among the Braves targets going forward: Randy Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Taylor Ward and Tommy Pham. The division is probably now out of reach, but the Braves seem confident they’ll be in position to make a run in October.

Baltimore Orioles

Record: 58-38

Given their abundance of young talent, the Orioles are clearly playing a long game. But their offseason trade for Corbin Burnes showed they’re also ready and willing to make shorter-term investments. Their trade deadline, then, could be interesting as they may focus more on weighing the pros and cons of short- and long-term acquisitions.

Ken Rosenthal wondered last week if they could use some of their position player redundancy to trade for long-term pitching, as they’re surprisingly low on controllable starters. Surely, the Orioles didn’t trade for one season of Burnes just to cross their fingers down the stretch. Baltimore is positioned to buy, but they’re also positioned to buy pieces that can help them beyond this season. Their deep farm system could let them make a splash without losing their very best prospects.

Philadelphia Phillies

Record: 62-34

They don’t call him “Dealer Dave” for nothing, but Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski does not deal exclusively in splashes and blockbusters. When he won the World Series with the Boston Red Sox in 2018, a key deadline acquisition was platoon slugger Steve Pearce, and with the then-Florida Marlins in 1997, he generated significant impact trading for utility man Craig Counsell. It could be similar this year.

The Phillies are perhaps the best team in baseball, but their star-laden roster might need little more than a bench bat (or two) and a reliever (or two). Releasing Whit Merrifield right before the break further opened that door, especially for a new right-handed hitter. Bowden expects them to keep going and land a center fielder.

Cleveland Guardians

Record: 58-37

Entering the season with roughly 1-in-3 odds of making the playoffs — similar to the Marlins, if you can believe it — the Guardians now have the fifth-best playoff odds in the majors. So, yeah, they’re on the buy side, and according to Zack Meisel, their priorities are clear: “Help in the rotation, more help in the rotation, even more help in the rotation and then more help in the rotation.” (Though if a right-handed bat were to fall in their lap, they probably wouldn’t say no.) The fact the Guardians had three of the first 48 picks in this year’s draft — including No. 1 overall — could give them some license to be especially aggressive in buying into this team that’s spent three months proving it’s a legitimate contender.

Houston Astros

Record: 50-46

Two months ago, the Astros were out of it. Now, they’re unmistakably back in with a couple of glaring needs. First and foremost is starting pitching. Lance McCullers Jr.’s rehab from elbow surgery has hit a snag, Luis Garcia is currently on a rehab assignment, Justin Verlander just started throwing lightly off a mound, and two current Astros starters — Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti — have never thrown more than 125 innings in a professional season. There’s also the offensive hole at first base (which could be filled by someone like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should he become available). “As long as Dana Brown is GM of the Astros, starting pitching and pitching in general will be the top priority,” Jim Bowden wrote, “But would they have interest in adding Guerrero to their lineup, especially knowing that Alex Bregman will likely leave in free agency this offseason? You better believe it.”

Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 55-42

Their best pitcher was traded to Baltimore, and their revered manager bolted for Chicago, but the Brewers are still atop the NL Central with a good, young roster that doesn’t have a ton of holes. The Brewers’ rotation, though, is thin. They’ve already traded for Rays starter Aaron Civale, and could probably use another arm. But the Brewers are nothing if not practical, and The Athletic reported that they “don’t seem inclined to fix that (pitching) hole through big spending or by trading top prospects at the deadline.” Their outfield depth, though, could be an interesting avenue through which to deal, if they want to go that route.

Minnesota Twins

Record: 54-42

As part of a mailbag last week, Twins writer Aaron Gleeman answered a question about the team’s potential pursuit of a front-line starting pitcher, noting that such an arm has been — and continues to be — the team’s most glaring need. “But the ‘front-line’ part of front-line starter is key,” Gleeman wrote, “because they’re not lacking in decent options.” The Twins have indeed been steady and stable, even as young third baseman Royce Lewis has fluctuated between being awesome and being hurt. The Twins’ need for a big bat might depend on health and the ongoing emergence of rookie Brooks Lee, but they could probably fit one at either first base, left field or DH. Payroll concerns, though, might limit their appetite for significant additions.

Tier 3: Trending to the buy side

 St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 50-46

The Cardinals rarely sell. In fact, they’ve really only done it once in 17 years under president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, and that was last season when they traded a bunch of soon-to-be free agents. This year, the Cardinals have surged back into contention after a brutal start. Catcher Willson Contreras returned from the IL in late June, outfielder Lars Nootbar returned this week, and play-anywhere Tommy Edman could make his season debut soon after the break. That should help solve some of the Cardinals’ offensive woes (though it would sure be nice to get Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado going).

What the Cardinals really need to address from the outside seems to be pitching, and if they’re healthy, they could use some of their positional redundancy to do so. Bowden says “It’s only a matter of time” before they strike a deal for a veteran starter.

Boston Red Sox

Record: 53-42

A month ago, the Red Sox were a perpetually .500 team that couldn’t get over the hump. But that was before they won four straight series against the Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays and Reds. Today, the team is very clearly in the wild-card hunt — even if the AL East remains a long shot — and manager Alex Cora has said their window of opportunity is looking more like a wide-open door. They need a starting pitcher, a middle infielder, and some help against left-handed pitching.

First-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has downplayed the possibility of trying to buy and sell at the same time, even though some redundancy in the outfield and bullpen suggests it might be possible if the Sox choose to go that route. The front office didn’t invest a ton into this team in the offseason, but an improved farm system could let them make a more meaningful investment at the deadline.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 48-48

Their record suggests they will be sellers, but their starting rotation and a handful of good, young position players suggest they could maybe thread the needle or even add players who can help them continue to get better in the near future. Case in point: Just last week, the Pirates were reported to be in talks with the Angels about a trade for left fielder Taylor Ward, who has two more years of team control and might be exactly the kind of player who keeps the Pirates competitive this year and potentially helps them remain in contention beyond that.

It might make sense for the Pirates to do a little buying and selling, but their needle is moving closer to the buy side than it has been in a few years. According to Bowden, general manager Ben Cherington has been in contact with opposing GMs and is on the hunt for options to improve his team’s offense.

New York Mets

Record: 49-46

After winning just nine games in May, the Mets turned around and won 16 in June. They’re now playing at a roughly even run differential which, in the murky middle of the National League, might be enough for a playoff spot. And if there was any doubt about which way the Mets were leaning, last week’s trade for Rays reliever Phil Maton certainly showed that the Mets are on the buying side. Maton wasn’t exactly an all-in acquisition — the team could trade him again in two weeks for all we know — but the move does help give the team a chance to keep winning, and perhaps convince president of baseball operations David Steans to do more. “We’re going to continue to see what is out there and what makes sense for us,” Stearns said, “while also continuing to learn about our team in the next few weeks.”

Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it’s not putting Pete Alonso on the sale rack, either. The Mets could still go either way.

Kansas City Royals

Record: 52-45

Truth be told, it seemed the Royals might be trending slightly toward selling before this weekend’s trade for Washington Nationals setup man Hunter Harvey. So, apparently, they’re not going to sell, but Bowden has noted that they “look more like a third-place team” and “don’t have a great farm system,” neither of which screams “buy!” That said, Bowden also noted that the Royals’ front office has been trying to improve its bullpen and outfield, but that limited farm system could be an issue. They could have gone even bigger in their deal with the Nats — outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan would have fit — but Bowden wrote of such a deal that “it’s hard to find a fair trade with KC from the Nationals’ perspective.” Perhaps smaller deals, then, like the Harvey trade, will have some lingering impact beyond this season.

San Francisco Giants

Record: 47-50

Now that they’ve figured out their shortstop situation and LaMonte Wade is healthy again, the Giants’ lineup doesn’t look all that bad. They also just got Blake Snell, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada back from the IL, and both Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb are currently on rehab assignments. Better health might be the Giants’ most important second-half addition, but “I don’t think there’s any doubt they’re going to be buyers at the deadline,” Jim Bowden wrote, “with no consideration of selling.” The front office has floated the possibility of selling, but even if they go that route, their roster isn’t exactly set up for a robust teardown.

Tier 4: Trending to the sell side

Arizona Diamondbacks

Record: 49-48

After an unexpected run to the World Series last season, the Diamondbacks tried to reload for a repeat, but their rotation has been devastated by injuries and the puzzle pieces just haven’t come together as planned. “GM Mike Hazen always looks to add depth to the rotation and bullpen,” Bowden wrote late last week, “but is also prepared to sell if things go south after the All-Star break.” Potentially tilting the Diamondbacks to the sell side is the fact first baseman Christian Walker is heading to free agency and would be one of the best bats available in a market that has plenty of teams looking for offense.

Cincinnati Reds

Record: 47-50

Yes, the Reds just traded for veteran outfielder Austin Slater, but acquiring a .200 hitter at the expense of a 30-year-old reliever doesn’t make a team a “buyer.” Instead, the Reds are in that murky middle of the National League, and while they’re not exactly out of the race, they’re a lot closer to last place in their division. They could trade some veteran relievers without necessarily sinking the ship, and starter Frankie Montas could be a worthwhile trade chip before he becomes a free agent. Whether to trade bat-first second baseman Jonathan India, given the team’s young depth in the infield, remains an interesting question. Bowden says it’s a no for him and has heard it’s still 50-50 whether the Reds buy or sell.

Chicago Cubs

Record: 47-51

After some “will they, won’t they” questions last season, the Cubs got hot in late July and ultimately bought a little at the 2023 deadline but still missed the playoffs. Maybe they have another after-the-break hot streak in them this year, but so far they’re trending in the wrong direction. That isn’t going to be helped by Cody Bellinger’s broken finger, which might also rob the Cubs of one of their best trade chips. Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Jameson Taillon are each signed through 2026 (and Happ has no-trade protection). The Cubs could sell high on reliever Tyson Miller, who’s been good since coming over in a minor trade earlier this season.

Texas Rangers

Record: 46-50

Feel free to blame the injuries (Josh Jung, Evan Carter, Max Scherzer) or some individual down years (José Leclerc early, Adolis García the past few months) but the Rangers just aren’t putting up much of a title defense, and the cavalry has been slow to set things right. MLB Trade Rumors already noted that being over the luxury tax threshold could further nudge the Rangers toward the sell side, and they have enough pending free agent pitchers — Scherzer, Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Heaney in the rotation; Leclerc, Kirby Yates and David Robertson in the bullpen — that the Rangers could get a significant return without sacrificing players who are part of their long-term vision. Ken Rosenthal reports, however, that the team could at least consider a more aggressive deadline in hopes of restocking for a resurgent 2025.

Getting some pitchers healthy might give the Rangers a chance to improve without making a deal. “That doesn’t mean they won’t add a reliever or bench player in a deal,” Jim Bowden wrote, “but don’t expect them to make significant trades as buyers.”

Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 48-48

Six days after trading starter Aaron Civale to the Brewers, the Rays traded reliever Phil Maton to the New York Mets. Does that mean they’re selling, or did they simply sell a couple of underperforming pitchers with the expectation that they can fill the void (and maybe even improve) from within? “The next two to three weeks are their playoffs,” The Athletic’s trade insiders wrote last week, “or at least, a critical period in determining whether they will continue pushing for the actual postseason, or continue trading off parts.” If they sell, the Rays have starter Zach Eflin, closer Pete Fairbanks, and left fielder Randy Arozarena among their more interesting chips.

Tier 5: Typical sellers

Washington Nationals

Record: 44-53

The Athletic reported last week that the Nationals were preparing to sell, having determined that their stronger-than-many-expected season indicated that they’re on the right track but not yet where they need to be. Sure enough, they traded their setup man Hunter Harvey to the Royals over the weekend. Pending free agents Jesse Winker and Dylan Floro are obvious trade chips, but the Nationals are reportedly also open to offers for outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan, each of whom — like Harvey — has one more year of team control. The Nats are perhaps making progress toward contention, but they’re not there yet.

Detroit Tigers

Record: 47-50

Like the Nationals, the Tigers overperformed expectations early in the season, but they too have fallen firmly into the sell category. Their best trade chip — assuming they hang onto Tarik Skubal — might be 28-year-old starter Jack Flaherty, who’s having a career renaissance on a one-year deal. If the Tigers don’t trade him (and he stays healthy), Flaherty would be an easy qualifying offer candidate, but The Athletic reported last week that “a trade is the more likely course.” Catcher Carson Kelly and relievers Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller are also free agents at the end of this season. So is outfielder Mark Canha, though his offensive numbers have sagged considerably since a strong April. And, hey, if anyone wants to pay Javier Báez $73 million over the next three seasons, it wouldn’t take much more than a phone call.

Tier 6: Could be (should be?) heavy sellers

Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 44-52

At this point, any Blue Jays road trip could be viewed through the lens of a potential trade partner. The Jays are supposed to be contenders but clearly are not. At this point, it seems not a question of whether they sell, but to what extent they will sell. They’ve already DFA’d center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. (He went unclaimed.) Now, do they chip away by trading some other pending free agents like catcher Danny Jansen, DH Justin Turner, and pitchers Yimi Garcia and Yusei Kikuchi or do they tear this roster down to its studs by dealing some of its controllable studs? (If they end up willing to trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, why would they hold tight to anyone else?)

Colorado Rockies

Record: 34-63

Since 2011, the Rockies have won 90 games once, been to the playoffs twice, and finished in fourth or fifth place 10 times. They’ve never in franchise history won their division. Faced with another losing season, the Rockies would seem well-positioned to sell heavily at the deadline, but they’ve rarely done so. (Outside of Troy Tulowitzki, the biggest deals in franchise history have been in the offseason.) If the otherwise wide-open National League keeps the market light on sellers, perhaps the Rockies could be persuaded to do something drastic. They have some pitching to dangle (Austin Gomber, Cal Quantrill, Jalen Beeks), as well as a productive catcher on the verge of free agency (Elias Díaz), and an All-Star third baseman (Ryan McMahon).

Oakland Athletics

Record: 37-61

The A’s are in a weird spot. They’re clearly sellers, but most of their players are either arbitration-eligible or have yet to get there. Center fielder JJ Bleday and starter JP Sears will have trade value, but do the A’s want to trade them or build around them? According to Bowden, the team stopped taking calls on All-Star rookie Mason Miller “unless someone makes them a ridiculous offer.” Veteran relievers T.J. McFarland and Scott Alexander might bring modest returns, but the team’s other pending free agents (Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Trevor Gott) are currently on the IL. All-Star snub Brent Rooker has three more years of team control, and at 29, could become their best trade chip. Left fielder Miguel Andujar, and maybe starter Paul Blackburn if he gets off the IL in time to reestablish value, could also bring back something useful. The A’s direction is obvious, but how to go about it isn’t as clear.

Los Angeles Angels

Record: 41-55

A year ago, the Angels committed to an ill-fated attempt at contention. They added at the deadline (most notably Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López) and put those guys and others on waivers a month later to cut their losses as the playoffs slipped out of reach. This season, there will be no delusions of grandeur. The Angels are out of the race and they know it. The only question is what exactly they do about it (which depends largely on owner Arte Moreno). Veteran starter Tyler Anderson (who will make $13 million next season) is an obvious trade chip, as is closer Carlos Estévez, and relievers Matt Moore and Luis Garcia (all pending free agents). Left fielder Taylor Ward, second baseman Luis Rengifo and starter Griffin Canning are arbitration-eligible trade chips, assuming the Angels are willing to concede they might not be contenders next season either.

Miami Marlins

Record: 33-63

A Marlins’ fire sale seems obvious at this point, but that’s only because we’ve all forgotten that they made the playoffs last year and opened this season with roughly 1-in-3 odds of making the playoffs. Now, they’re approaching the break having already traded away Luis Arraez and released Tim Anderson, and the Miami Herald has reported that there’s growing expectation that they will trade Jazz Chisholm Jr. Frankly, if Chisholm is on the block with two years of remaining control, why would almost anyone else be untouchable? All-Star closer Tanner Scott and first baseman Josh Bell are pending free agents, so they’re the most obvious trade chips. In fact, a Scott trade seems inevitable.

Chicago White Sox

Record: 27-71

The worst team in baseball might also have the game’s most intriguing trade chip. Garrett Crochet is an All-Star and a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate. He also has two more years of team control and has more than doubled his previous career total for major-league innings. The upside is huge. The risk, too, is notable. But the White Sox also have little reason to keep him — or anyone else, really.

In a market light on middle infielders, Paul DeJong has some value. Luis Robert is still just 26 and signed to a reasonably team-friendly deal. Erick Fedde has been terrific in his first year back from playing in the KBO. Tommy Pham gets traded at basically every trade deadline. Just make an offer, and the White Sox will throw in Andrew Benintendi for free! “One thing is for sure,” Bowden recently wrote. “GM Chris Getz is ready to wheel and deal.”

(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of Dave Dombrowski: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images; Jazz Chisholm Jr: Megan Briggs; Randy Arozarena: Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins)