Minnesota Lynx to host Phoenix Mercury in WNBA playoffs: Preview, predictions, key matchups and more

The Minnesota Lynx (30-10) have flown under the radar all year despite a phenomenal season, and they host the struggling Phoenix Mercury (19-21) on Sunday. It could be one of the last times we ever see Diana Taurasi play, and it could also mark the start of a legendary postseason run for Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride and the rest of the team.

This match between #2 and #7 doesn’t exactly seem ripe for a surprise, but let’s take a look at the key points for both teams:

Lynx-Mercury Playoff Schedule:

Game 1 is in Minnesota on Sunday, September 22 at 5:00 p.m. ET (on ESPN)
Game 2 is in Minnesota on Wednesday, September 25 at 9:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)
Game 3, if necessary, will air on Phoenix on Friday, September 27, time TBA (on ESPN2)

Regular Season Series: Minnesota won 3-1

Notable players:

Lynx: Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Alanna Smith
Mercury: Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper, Brittney Griner, Natasha Cloud

Prediction: Lynx in two.

This series has the potential to be the most lopsided first-round series of the bunch. The Lynx are the league’s best team since the Olympic break, at 13-2, while the Mercury are one of the worst, at 6-9. Anything can happen in a three-game series, but these are two teams clearly headed in opposite directions.

Napheesa Collier is at the heart of everything Minnesota does, and she’s coming off the best season of her career (and an undeniable MVP-caliber campaign). Collier averaged 20.4 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 34.7 minutes per game while also making a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year.

Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images

But what makes Minnesota so great is that it’s not just now Collier leads the charge. Kayla McBride has been crucial as a spacer and scorer, and has established herself as one of the league’s best three-point shooters. Courtney Williams is one of the league’s most underrated playmakers. Alanna Smith and Bridget Carleton are both having seasons worthy of the Most Improved Player award. Cheryl Reeve has maximized this roster and everything seems to be clicking heading into the postseason.

On the Mercury side, this could be Diana Taurasi’s last week of professional basketball, and that’s a big headline this season (and rightfully so). The reality is that Taurasi has actually been solid this year despite clearly not being in her prime, but the Mercury have failed to put the pieces together.

Sophie Cunningham has emerged as a locker room leader and a candidate for the sixth player of the year. Brittney Griner has had a stellar individual season less than two years after her Russian captivity, and Natasha Cloud has excelled on both ends — but things just haven’t worked out the way management had hoped.

Entering the first round of the postseason, the difference between Minnesota and Phoenix is ​​undeniable — Minnesota has the second-best defensive rating in the league this year (94.8), while Phoenix has the fourth-worst (105.4). Phoenix is ​​also the second-worst rebounding team in the league this year, which is one of the many factors that have contributed to the losing streak in basketball. The Mercury will have to flip a switch to pull off an upset, and after playing so inconsistently this regular season, that will be tough.

Key question: Can Kahleah Copper to take over?

Kahleah Copper started the year on a tear and was even in the MVP conversation in the early days. She has cooled off a bit lately, but has always been the potential to be the best player on the court, as she showed in the 2021 Finals when she led the Chicago Sky to a WNBA championship.

The Mercury will need to play a lot better than they have since the break if they are to really challenge the Lynx, and Copper will need to be at their very best to give them a chance.