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Medvedev vs. Alcaraz Odds and Best Bet

VaselineJuly 11, 2024

0 3 minutes read

In a rematch of last year’s Wimbledon semi-finals, Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz battle it out for a place in the final at the All England Club. It was Alcaraz who came out on top when these two met a year ago, but things could be very different this time around. Although Alcaraz has just won his third Grand Slam title, many believe his game has declined somewhat in 2024. Medvedev, meanwhile, is playing with real confidence now. With that in mind, keep reading for our Medvedev vs Alcaraz betting preview and Wimbledon predictions.

I will also be posting more tennis predictions on the Pro Picks page. I will be adding picks every now and then throughout the day as I like to see how the odds are developing. So keep checking that page every few hours if you want more of my picks. I will also be posting plays for smaller tournaments on that page.

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2024 record: 499-505 (+30.91 units)

Chances Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Moneyline: Alcaraz -320, Medvedev +250

Scatter: Alcaraz -4.5 games (-115), Medvedev +4.5 games (-105)

Total: More than 39.5 matches (-105), less than 39.5 matches (-120)

How to watch Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Where: All England Club in London, England

When: Friday July 12

Channel: ESPN

Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Predictions

Last year, Alcaraz defeated Medvedev 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 in the semi-finals of Wimbledon. The Spaniard then defeated Novak Djokovic in the final to claim the second Grand Slam title of his career. Of course, Alcaraz added to his trophy cabinet with a French Open title in June. So he is undoubtedly feeling confident. Alcaraz has also won his last two matches against Medvedev in straight sets. One of those came at the ATP Finals in November last year and the other in Indian Wells in March.

All of this could mean that Alcaraz is going to beat the Russian up. But let’s not forget that Medvedev claimed a 7-6 (3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 victory over Alcaraz in their last major meeting. That victory for the Russian came in the semifinals of the 2023 US Open. And it should serve as a reminder that Medvedev is comfortable on the big stage and a master strategist. He’s also not as far removed from the top tier of Alcaraz, Djokovic and Jannik Sinner as the general public might think. We saw that in his five-set victory over Sinner in the quarterfinals.

If he plays well, there are many things Medvedev can do to frustrate Alcaraz on the court. For starters, Medvedev is one of the best returners in the world. He stands deep in the court and uses his length to get his serves back into the court, and that could cause problems for Alcaraz here. The Spaniard did not serve well in London, which we saw clearly in his encounter with Tommy Paul. But Paul could not hold himself consistently, so he gave those breaks back. Medvedev is a bit sharper as a server, so he should take advantage if he gets ahead.

Alcaraz will likely combat Medvedev’s return by switching to the serve-and-volley game. But he’ll have to hit his spots consistently to do that. In their US Open match, Medvedev was able to hit Alcaraz’s passing shots consistently. That’s why Medvedev’s form is so important. If he’s in form, he can flirt with beating him. And it’s pretty clear that he’s in form right now.

Medvedev is also one of the best defenders in the history of the sport. He’s going to chase down every shot Alcaraz takes and force him to hit more. That could potentially lead to some unforced errors. That strategy is what has allowed Paul to find success against Alcaraz. Well, Medvedev is even better at it because he’s bigger. He also keeps the ball lower than Paul. That forces Alcaraz to get low and hit from uncomfortable angles.

Overall, it wouldn’t be a shock at all if Alcaraz won this match. In fact, I expect him to. But +5.5 games is a fair price for Medvedev, and that’s hard to turn down in a match I think the Russian can actually win.

Bet: Medvedev +5.5 Games (-159 – 1.5 units)

Added plays

I usually have a LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count toward my record and are a huge part of my success this season. Make sure to check them out. I’ll probably add a few more, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.