La Nina winter is starting to set in, NOAA says. Here’s what it means for the U.S.

NEW YORK – The astronomical start of fall is just a few days away, arriving on Sunday. Before we can fully embrace the crisp fall air and colorful foliage, we turn our gaze to the winter months ahead.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center recently released its updated winter outlook, which provides a glimpse of what Americans can expect from December through February. The forecast suggests a typical La Niña pattern.

According to NOAA, La Niña influence will dominate weather conditions from December through February. This often translates into wetter conditions in the northern part of the country, while the southern part can experience drier than average weather.

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A worker carries a snowplow as snow falls north of Lake Tahoe during a powerful, multi-day winter storm in the Sierra Nevada Mountains on March 2, 2024 in Truckee, California.

(Mario Tama/Getty Images)

NOAA predicts a 71% chance of La Niña occurring between September and November, with the cooling trend potentially continuing through January-March 2025. While a moderate to strong La Niña is less likely in the fall and winter, it is still a possibility.

By the February-April 2025 season, conditions are expected to be ESNO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral.

Could La Niña come too late to have much impact on the hurricane season?

La Niña is expected to influence the weather this winter.

(FOX Weather)

Warmer temperatures coming for the south and east

NOAA expects the chance for warmer than average temperatures to be greatest over much of the eastern and southern regions, and northwestern Alaska.

According to NOAA, the greatest chance of warmer conditions is expected along the Gulf Coast and the Southeast, including Florida.

The outlook is also cooler than normal from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies and northern Plains.

Much of the eastern and southern US is expected to see a warmer than average winter. Alaska is also likely to see warmer than average.

(FOX Weather)

More precipitation expected in northern regions this winter

According to NOAA, the northwestern U.S., the Great Lakes, the Northeast and much of northwestern Alaska are most likely to receive above-average precipitation this winter, but that doesn’t guarantee more snow-sure conditions.

Drier than average weather is expected across the southwest, south-central and southeast U.S., as well as parts of Alaska. Texas’ Rio Grande Valley and the southern High Plains are at the greatest risk for below-average precipitation, NOAA said.

For the rest of the US, the chances of precipitation being below, near or above average from December through February are about equal.

The Northwest, Great Lakes, Northeast and Alaska are likely to see above-average precipitation this winter.

(FOX Weather)

Drought conditions worsen in the South and Midwest

NOAA says La Niña could worsen drought conditions in the South this winter, as the southern part of the country faces a greater risk of drier than average conditions through the end of the year.

This past summer, the drought expanded and increased in magnitude across much of the Great Plains, the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley.

La Niña could worsen drought in the south this winter.

(FOX Weather)

“Drought conditions are forecast to continue across much of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, where severe precipitation deficits have been in place for six to 12 months,” NOAA said in its latest forecast.

However, there is potential for improvement east of the Appalachian spine, including western parts of Maryland and Virginia.