Jacksonville State at Liberty odds, picks and predictions

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks (4-3, 3-0 Conference USA) meet the Freedom flames (5-1, 3-1) in a showdown on Wednesday night in Lynchburg, Virginia. Opening kickoff at Williams Stadium will be at 7:00 PM ET (CBS Sports Network). Let’s analyze the college football odds from BetMGM Sportsbook The State of Jacksonville vs. Freedom chancesand make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Jacksonville State won its fourth straight game last Wednesday when it defeated Middle Tennessee 42-20 (covered -20.5). The Gamecocks rushed for a season-high 438 yards; only one other team (Liberty twice in 2023) has rushed for more than 400 yards since the start of 2023. JSU has scored 203 points in its past four games.

Liberty also played last Wednesday and lost a regular season game for the first time since 2022, when they dropped a 27-24 game (as a -26.5 favorite) to Kennesaw State.

The Flames topped the Gamecocks 31-13 (covering -7) at last year’s meeting in Jacksonville, Alabama (October 10, 2023).

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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The state of Jacksonville is on the brink of freedom

Powered by BetMGM Sportsbook; access the USA TODAY sports scoring and sports betting hub for a complete list of college football odds. Lines last updated on Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET.

• Moneyline: Jacksonville State +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Freedom -130 (Bet $130 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Jacksonville State +2.5 (-110) | Freedom -2.5 (-110)
• Top/Bottom (O/U): 63.5 (E: -110 | U: -110)

Jacksonville State at Liberty picks and predictions

Prediction

Freedom 31, Jacksonville State 28

Moneyline

Neither side has played a particular schedule, and that muddies the water when parsing some strengths and weaknesses.

But Liberty is at home and has the better defense. The Flames have totaled just 321.3 yards per game; which ranks second in CUSA. Especially when it comes to conversion rate analysis, the Liberty defense is a separator in this matchup. The Flames are especially strong on the defensive line, and in a game where both sides are trying to hammer the ground game, Liberty should have an edge in forcing more passing downs.

The Flames were much the better team when these foes met last October, and it’s fair to say they have almost a 60% chance of beating them.

TAKE FREEDOM (-130).

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Against the spread

The Flames are thin, but a one-score game wouldn’t be a surprise. PASSAGE.

Top/Bottom

Say this matchup is tough, and an exchange in the 50s has a good chance of stalling before the scales tip.

Last year’s meeting cashed in an Under 59.5, and the UNDER 63.5 (-110) is the best leverage play on Wednesday.

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