Israel and Iran may not want full-scale war now, but it could be difficult to avoid

Opinion

Special correspondent

Israel may have enough to deal with in Lebanon and Gaza, but a guarantee of full American support could change the parameters elsewhere

October 26, 2024 1:19 PM(Updated 1:45 p.m)

A year ago, an attack by a hundred Israeli fighter planes and unmanned drones on twenty locations in Iran, as well as Syria and Iraq, would have caused great concern among governments around the world.

But when Israel finally launched its long-awaited airstrikes on Iran and its allies early Saturday morning, there was international relief that it had not targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities or its oil industry. Instead, it had focused on military headquarters, air defense systems and a missile factory. Iran said two of its soldiers were killed in attacks on three Iranian provinces – Tehran, Ilam and Khuzestan – but that damage was otherwise minor.

The Israeli attacks appear to mark the end of the current phase of the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, which has the hallmarks of an all-out regional war. Israel has said its airstrike is over and a senior US official says “this should be the end of the direct firefight between Israel and Iran.” Significantly, Israel has not given the Israeli public any warning to take security measures against counterattacks by Iranian missiles, indicating that Tel Aviv does not expect this to happen.

Iran, desperately trying to avoid a full-scale military conflict with a militarily superior, US-backed Israel, is downplaying the Israeli attack. Tehran International Airport reopened for flights at 9 a.m., schools opened and sporting events continued.

The Israeli strike was demanded less than three weeks ago by some Israeli political leaders after 180 Iranian ballistic missiles were fired into Israel on October 1 in retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, along with senior Iranian military commanders, in Beirut .

Possible targets included Iranian nuclear sites and the oil industry, with the threat to the latter briefly raising the price of crude oil. President Joe Biden and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken strongly protested this, in an attempt to prevent the outbreak of a regional war in the Middle East to coincide with the US presidential elections on November 5. Biden’s claim to have brought order to the world after the chaos of Donald Trump’s last presidency already seemed pretty thin.

It is unclear whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ever intended to attack Iranian nuclear and oil targets at this point, but the fear that he might do so has proven a useful way to stem international criticism of Israel’s escalating attack on Gaza and to repel Lebanon.

UN human rights chief Volker Türk says the “darkest moment” of the year-long conflict in Gaza is taking place in the north of the Gaza Strip, where Israel is carrying out a ground offensive against Hamas to prevent its fighters from regrouping. But critics say the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population is underway. “Right now, the Israeli army is subjecting an entire population to bombings, sieges and the risk of starvation,” Türk said. Calling on world leaders to take action, he said states have a duty under the Geneva Conventions to ensure respect for international humanitarian law.

Meanwhile, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organization, said that during the Israeli offensive, the WHO had lost contact with the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahia, which was flooded with almost 200 patients during the offensive in nearby Jabalia.

Israel is now engaged in three wars in the region, both directly on the ground and in the air in Gaza and Lebanon, and more often with Iran. But none of these conflicts show any sign of ending as they intersect and intensify the level of hatred and violence. Israel has inflicted heavy losses on Hamas and Hezbollah and killed their leaders, but this was unlikely to bankrupt either, while the ferocity of the Israeli attack and heavy civilian casualties allow the organizations to recruit more fighters.

Read Next

The Israeli government could calculate that Donald Trump could become president-elect through the American elections. He has already criticized Biden for not encouraging Israel to attack Iranian nuclear facilities as a priority target. At the same time, Trump’s off-the-cuff outbursts are not a solemn pledge to Israel, and during his presidency Trump was careful not to provoke Iran to the point of all-out war.

Iran is looking for military action, which Israel and the US in general cannot find, without giving Israel the opportunity to further escalate the conflict. The October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel demonstrated that Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ defense system is not impenetrable and led to the US deploying an advanced anti-missile system manned by 100 US soldiers to Israel, potentially leading to direct US military involvement in the attack on Israel. conflict with Iran.

At the same time, Iran hopes not to project weakness by failing to respond effectively to the successive Israeli attacks, exposing the Iranian-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ as a paper tiger.

It is a measure of the extent to which war has become the norm in much of the Middle East that foreign governments and media pay little attention to Israeli airstrikes on Syria and Iraq, as well as Iran. All of these conflicts provide points of friction that can increase conflict at any time.

“We are focused on our war objectives in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon,” the Israeli army said in a statement. “It is Iran that continues to push for broader regional escalation.” In reality, it is Israel that assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 and had previously killed two senior Iranian generals in an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. But it may be true that Israel currently feels that it has enough on its plate in Gaza and Lebanon, and that if it were to deal with Iran at the same time, it would want a guarantee of a full US military deployment on its territory . side.