Hoyer confirms Cubs won’t buy at deadline

This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs did not expect to buy at the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer essentially confirmed as much in a chat with reporters just before tonight’s game against the Brewers.

Hoyer said the headquarters will approach the deadline with an eye to the future.Where we are now, I would say the moves are only for 2024 – unless something changes in the coming week – we’re probably not going to have many moves that will help us just this year.“, said the head of Chicago’s baseball operations (link via ESPN’s Jesse Rogers). “If these steps help us through 2025 and beyond, I think we will be in exceptionally good shape.“

While Hoyer left the slight caveat that the situation could change this week, there is not much ambiguity about how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke candidly about the “bad position“regarding this season.”We just dug a hole with underperformance for two months, and that doesn’t affect how I see the organization or how I see the future, but it certainly affects 2024“, said Hoyer.

It is clear that the Cubs will not pursue any upcoming free agents. Hoyer called Chicago’s approach neither buying nor selling. That leaves open the possibility of trying to acquire MLB talent that is under team control after this season. While that is not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ deal for Marcus Stroman (There are examples in 2019 of teams acquiring controllable players at the deadline despite them no longer being in the running), it’s not common. The Cubs would have to outbid teams that are motivated to acquire those players for both a potential playoff push this summer and future seasons.

Chicago’s farm system is considered one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable player of substance, but the more likely outcome is that the Cubs will move only a few veterans on a short-term basis. Hoyer shot down any suggestion of a complete teardown, saying it’s “won’t be an option, so there’s no point in going through the hypothetical situation.” That makes it unlikely that they will release core players under contract or control of the team beyond this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota-Imanaga, Ian Happy, Michael Busch).

If we were prioritizing 2025, we would normally put player rentals on the agenda, but the Cubs don’t have much to offer in that area. Kyle Hendriks, Signed Smyly (whose deal includes a $2.5 million buyout on a $10 million mutual option) and recent minor league signee Jorge Lopez are the only true hires. Hendricks is playing on a $16.5 million salary and has a 7.00 earned run average. While he has pitched better of late after a poor start to the season, interest is reportedly minimal. The Cubs could try to pay off most of the contract to find a trade partner. Hendricks also has full no-trade rights after completing 10 years of MLB service earlier this season (the last five with his current team).

Smyly has a 2.92 ERA over 37 innings in a long relief capacity. That solid run prevention isn’t helped by mediocre strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5 million salary and the aforementioned option buyout, there’s likely limited interest in the veteran left-handed pitcher.

Cody Bellinger has the option to drop the final two years and $50MM on his contract. He’s had a solid but unremarkable season, hitting .269/.331/.410 in 344 plate appearances. That would be a tough contract to move even if Bellinger were healthy, and he went on the injured list a few weeks ago with a broken finger.

If the Cubs wanted to get their act together in 2025, they’d be looking at a very quiet deadline. But even if they’re unlikely to move any long-term core pieces, Chicago could consider offers for role players who are controllable after this season. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox were looking for starters Jameson Taillonwho will earn $18 million annually between 2025 and 2026. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also received interest in third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and illuminators Hector Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. And Tyson Miller.

Morel, 25, is under team control through 2028. He is a borderline candidate for the Super Two cutoff for early arbitration next offseason. The Cubs certainly aren’t under financial pressure to move him, but it’s possible they’d be willing to move on if another team sees Morel as a permanent fixture. Morel is a solid athlete with big power upside who has never found a defensive home. Chicago has tried him at second base and the outfield in previous seasons without success. They’ve given him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping his top-tier arm strength would work at that position. His Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average both give him very poor marks for his time at the hot corner.

This hasn’t been a great season for Morel at the plate either. While he’s hit 18 homers, he’s batting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step back from the .241/.311/.471 career slash line Morel carried into the season. While that’s clearly not ideal, it does reveal some intriguing developments from a process perspective. Morel has increased his walk rate by a couple of points while drastically reducing his strikeouts. After batting in over 30% of his plate appearances in his first two seasons, he’s striking out 23.8% of the time this year. An unsustainably low .221 average on balls in play has prevented that from translating into better results.

Even if the Cubs expect Morel’s offensive output to normalize with an increase in his average on balls in play, his lack of defensive fit makes him a tough player to value. The Cubs could hope to trade third base to last year’s first-round pick Matt Shaw as soon as next season. They don’t have many short-term alternatives. If the Cubs were to trade Morel, they would likely rely on Mile Mastrobuoni And Patrick Wisdom to hold the position for the remainder of the season.

The Cubs should be open to offers for anyone in their bullpen. Neris has handled the ninth inning since Adbert Alzolay went down with a forearm injury. The offseason acquisition has been shaky, walking 16.1 percent of opponents and blowing four saves in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but he’s up two runs this year due to control issues. The 35-year-old righty is playing on a $9 million salary and has a matching option for next year. It’s currently a team option, but would convert to a player option if Neris pitches in 24 more games.

Given his inconsistency, it’s unlikely the Cubs will want Neris back at that price. They’d likely be happy to find a trade partner, but the possibility of being stuck with a $9 million player option if Neris hits his fortress mark could make other teams cautious. There’s less risk involved with Leiter and Miller. The former is striking out 34.4 percent with a 50.6 percent grounder rate through 34 innings. He’s on a $1.5 million salary and is under arbitration control through 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in May, has broken out with a 2.04 ERA while striking out nearly 26 percent in 35 1/3 frames.

Whether the Cubs will get enough attractive offers to move anyone out of that bracket remains to be seen. They’re not entirely buried in the Wild Card standings; they’re 3.5 games back of the final playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four teams in between to jump, the front office has decided they have a long shot at best to make the postseason. How much they’re willing to reshape the roster with the ’25 season in mind will be one of the bigger questions of the coming week.