How will Edmonton Oilers’ fourth line shape up in 2024-25?

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Back in the saddle after a short vacation to beautiful Vancouver Island. Things have calmed down in Oil Country since my last post a dozen days ago, though there was nonetheless a significant trade of prospects. Edmonton sent a pair of right wingers from the 2021 Draft to Ottawa Senators in Xavier Bourgault and Jake Chiasson in  return for left winger Roby Jarventie and a fourth-round draft pick to flesh out what had been a thin set of selections in 2025.

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Jarventie was drafted a year before Bourgault but is just 2½ months older. Both players turned pro in the fall of 2022 and have a year to run on their respective Entry Level Contracts, with each in need of what Craig MacTavish famously called “a second opinion”.

The strapping Finn arrives in the Oilers organization with 7 games of NHL experience last November (0-1-1, -5) and 132 more in the AHL over parts of three seasons (36-47-83, -20). Two of them were curtailed by a knee issue that ended his 2023-24 campaign back on Jan 10. He’ll likely need a bit of time to work his way into consideration on a spot on the big club, though he may well work himself into the mix at some point during the season. He’s not alone.

Oilers’ forward depth

Let’s return to the subject of my last post, Edmonton’s extended roster, though this time sticking strictly to the forward ranks. The following 13 forwards all ended the season as full-time NHLers, though not all as members of the Oilers:

In my view the top nine players outlined here by a black box are mortal locks to make the squad come October.

• The trio of Connor McDavid between Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman was among the very best lines in the NHL all season long. All are staples on the powerplay as well.
• Leon Draisaitl was flitting here, there and everywhere, from centre to wing and with a variety of linemates throughout the season, two of whom (Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod) departed the team in recent weeks. The Jul 01 signings of top-flight wingers Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson seemed tailor-made for Leon to settle down at the pivot position with proven snipers on his flanks.
• The third line of Adam Henrique between Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown proved an excellent checking trio with strong penalty-killing chops, and logged the most ice time as a threesome of any Oilers line in the Stanley Cup Finals. All were UFA on Jul 01, but were each was re-signed in the Jul 01 flurry and surely are not going anywhere but Edmonton in the near future.

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Below that 3×3 box, however, reside a group of forwards with questions hovering about them. Let’s review on a player-by-player basis.

The incumbents

• Dylan Holloway turns 23 during training camp. He’s amassed 89 NHL games over the past two seasons, tallying just 9-9-18, -1 with 56 PiM. He crushed it in brief stints in the AHL over those same two seasons, popping 17 goals in just 30 games. He was recalled for the last time just before the 2024 playoffs, in which he played all 25 games (11:30 per game) and produced 5-2-7, +4 with a couple of important goals along the way.
  Biggest question hanging over him right now is his contract status; his ELC expired at the end of the season, the Oilers have issued a qualifying offer but no contract has been signed as yet. He’s in a similar position as McLeod two summers ago; promising but with no arbitration rights and not enough of a track record to garner a big pay day unless there is term associated with it. Expect a bridge deal of one or two years, with the former apt to deliver a lower cap hit.
• Derek Ryan is 37 now, and his surprisingly long career appears to be on the wane. All but 27 of his 570 NHL games have come since his 30th birthday. He’s produced a half-dozen NHL seasons of double-digit goals, invariably in a depth role, but dropped to just 5 in 2023-24, followed by an unproductive playoffs of 19 GP, 0-1-1, -9.
  He has a year to run on a deal that carries a reasonable $900,000 cap hit, and brings some valuable traits: he’s a right shot, can play centre or right wing, is strong on the faceoff dot (career 55% win rate) and is a strong penalty killer. But the observed erosion of his play in the late season and playoffs suggests he is vulnerable.
• Corey Perry joined the Oilers just before the end of their epic 16-game winning streak last January, signed as an in-season free agent after his prior contract was terminated by Chicago Blackhawks. He played the final 38 games of the season, scoring 8-5-13, -1 in a depth role (ATOI 12:51). That ice time was further curtailed to 10:46 in the playoffs, ion which he produced just 1-2-3, -3 in 19 games that saw him spend time in the press box due to injury and/or coach’s decision.
  The 39-year-old has an epic résumé, being one of just two players (also: Scott Niedermayer) to win every team trophy out there — Stanley Cup, Olympic gold, World Cup, World Championship, World Junior, Memorial Cup. He’s big, greasy, and plays a position (right wing) of organizational weakness.
  Somewhat surprisingly, he too was signed to a one-year extension on Jul 01, with a primary cap hit of $1.15 million — exactly the amount that can be “buried” in the minors should he not make the team. Not that he’s likely to spend time in the AHL at this point, but I can envision a scenario where he is waived and hangs around town as an extra, opening up a spot for a younger, faster, cheaper player who might shave as much as $375k off the cap in times of distress.
• Evander Kane is a 100% lock to be on the team, but in what capacity? He’s dealt with a succession of injuries during his two full seasons in Edmonton, the last of which incapacitated him for the last five games of the Stanley Cup Finals — just when the Oilers needed him most. In addition to the nasty laceration of his wrist in November of 2022, he has dealt with a persistent sports hernia and what has recently been described as a hip issue.
  Seems like a strong possibility he will at least start the 2024-25 season on Long Term Injured Reserve, relieving a $5.1 million strain on the salary cap for the time he is sidelined and surely opening up the roster for additional depth players during that period. The ultimate resolution of the Kane situation will be a thorny issue that might be delayed until his full no-movement clause gets downgraded to a limited no-trade just before the deadline.

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The challengers

Several of these guys are in the development stage and will need considerably more time before they are apt to get the call. The following are possibilities to get time on the big club in the season to come:

• Right-shot winger Raphael Lavoie enters his fifth year as a pro on his third contract, this one correctly priced at NHL minimum. He posted his second straight season of 25+ goals in the AHL a season ago, but made a very minor impression in two cups of NHL coffee totaling 7 games. Big, abrasive, and with a shoot-first approach, there is lots to like in his game, but the clock is ticking. His best chance to impress may be in camp, where the turning-24-year-old can make his case as a younger, cheaper alternative to Perry or Ryan or a fill-in for Kane.
• James Hamblin has done nothing but win friends since being signed to a minor league deal as an undrafted free agent four years ago, subsequently earning an upgrade to an NHL pact. The speedy 25-year-old got 31 big-league games last season in a fourth-line role (ATOI 7:55) but was shy on offence with just 2-1-3, +3. He currently projects as a tweener.
• Lane Pederson had a fine year in Bakersfield (66 GP, 22-30-52, +8) but never got a sniff in Edmonton. A two-way right-shot centre with 71 games of NHL experience, the 26-year-old might battle Ryan for a spot in camp.
• Noah Philp perhaps has the best long-term chance to win a full-time centre job with the Oil. A late bloomer with just 75 games of pro experience, the big right-shot centre will be 26 when camp opens. Personal circumstances forced a year away from the game in 2023-24, so it may take him some reps at the AHL level before he’s ready, but don’t sleep on this guy.
• Roby Jarventie was discussed up top. A high  second-round pick, his progress has been stalled by injury. He’s another who’s apt to need a little bit of time. Unlike Lavoie he remains waiver-exempt, so it seems likely he will be sent out when camp breaks but is a good possibility to get a look at some point during the season.
• Matt Savoie is something of a wild card at this point. A plum prospect acquired in the Ryan McLeod trade earlier this month, he is tremendously talented but is effectively turning pro this upcoming season, with just 1 NHL game and 6 AHL contests (2-3-5) to his name at this point. The ninth overall pick from 2022 did light up the WHL in his final season of major junior, posting 30-41-71 in just 34 games, then adding 10-14-24 in 19 playoff games as Moose Jaw Warriors secured the Ed Chynoweth Trophy. Officially a centre, the 5’9 right-shot attacker may well wind up as a wing at the pro level. There’s a non-zero chance he might simply make the team out of training camp, though the more conservative projection involves time in Bakersfield for the 20-year-old to learn the ropes of playing against pros.

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The wild cards

It remains possible the Oilers will sign another depth forward or two in the dog days of free agency. Given their history, it’s more likely they will invite a player or two to camp on a Professional Tryout (PTO), over recent years a wellspring of depth forwards like Devin Shore, Colton Sceviour, Sam Gagner and Adam Erne. Those were all Ken Holland signings since 2021; whether Jeff Jackson and/or the incoming GM will mine that vein remains to be seen.

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