How did the WR market come about when CeeDee Lamb is the last player to make over $30 million in the NFL?

There’s a lot of buzz and some consternation surrounding the exploding wide receiver market, including the impact of the Detroit Lions’ deal with the Minnesota Vikings for Amon-Ra St. Brown on Justin Jefferson’s contract.

It’s been hard to go almost anywhere over the past four weeks of NFL training camp without having an opinion on the exploding money for wide receivers this offseason. Everyone has a reasoning for how the league has gotten to the point where $25 million to $35 million per year on average is the new wheelhouse for good-to-great wideouts. Some see it as a natural rotation into what matters most in the league (emphasizing QB value). Others point to a wave of general managers, coaches and team owners who care less about the decades-old “rule of four” that has historically kept bank-busting salaries in the hands of good-to-great quarterbacks, elite offensive tackles, DPOY-caliber edge rushers or lockdown “traveling” cornerbacks.

Before the Dallas Cowboys reportedly agreed to a hefty four-year, $136 million extension with CeeDee Lamb on Monday, three deals were the most frequently mentioned in conversations about wideout money. Two were often mentioned as the “launch deals” for Tyreek Hill (after he traded to the Miami Dolphins) and Davante Adams (after he traded to the Las Vegas Raiders). The third was the Detroit Lions’ contract extension for wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown, which many clubs viewed as a dynamic-changing contract for everyone involved.

Despite St. Brown being a first-team All-Pro in 2023, it’s clear that several teams view him as a very good but not exceptional player who ultimately commanded elite money thanks to some unexpected leverage. A handful of teams specifically believe that the reason St. Brown commanded elite money without lengthy negotiations was because ownership wanted the extension to take place before Detroit held the NFL Draft last April (Brown’s extension was announced just prior to that event). That’s a realistic perception in some corners of the NFL.

Whatever the factors, the consensus is that Hill and Adams kicked open a door to massive No. 1 wideout money. Then St. Brown raised the second-tier floor, while Jefferson raised the first-tier ceiling. Those bookends have weighed in different ways on the protracted negotiations with Brandon Aiyuk and Ja’Marr Chase, not to mention a multitude of future receiver deals on the horizon.

The Aiyuk deal was certainly complicated by the St. Brown contract, while I think the Cowboys were shocked by the Jefferson deal and the impact it had on their discussions with Lamb before they reached an agreement.

As for Chase, I think the Cincinnati Bengals will have a hard time making Chase the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL, which multiple teams have said is necessary to make that extension happen. As one general manager put it, “We’re at the point now where every good receiver just starts at 25 (million) and the best ones go up to 40 (million). You can do those deals, but you lose one or two other starters. It’s not a 1-for-1 trade-off. Sometimes it’s a 2-for-1. So you have to ask yourself, do I want this receiver, or would I rather keep these other two starters and try to find a younger, cheaper receiver in the draft or a trade?”

One head coach grumbled, “If you’re paying (a receiver) $30 to $35 million a season, they’ve got to be able to walk on water.”

I don’t know when, but I think it will eventually result in an extremely active — and extremely polarized — approach to retaining wideouts. There are so many receivers entering the league in seemingly every draft that it feels like teams will be inclined to try to squeeze more of them into their rookie contracts later, and then either franchise tag them or trade them before a monstrous extension becomes necessary. One interesting thing to watch is what happens when a wideout gets a huge extension and then doesn’t live up to it. That’s the kind of pressure point that helps fire coaches and general managers.