Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS preview: key matchup, how each team wins and series prediction

And then there were four. Through two rounds of the 2024 MLB postseason, the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians have emerged from the American League field. The AL’s No. 1 and No. 2 seeds will now battle for a World Series spot in the ALCS.

With Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton playing host to José Ramírez, Steven Kwan and the league’s best bullpen, it’s certainly baseball not to be missed, starting with Game 1 on Monday in New York.

Let’s break it down.

No. 2 CLEVELAND GUARDIANS vs. No. 1 NEW YORK YANKEES

How they got here

Guards: Not only did the Guardians win a suddenly ultra-competitive AL Central by a fairly comfortable margin, but they also won enough games to secure the No. 2 seed and a first-round exit to the ALDS, thanks in large part to another blowout win. season from the face of the franchise José Ramírez and a dominant bullpen headlined by Emmanuel Clase.

A rare Clase clunker in Game 2 of the ALDS against the red-hot Tigers put Cleveland in a precarious position as the series shifted to Detroit, with the Guardians subsequently eliminated after being eliminated in Game 3. But a timely go-ahead homer from David Fry in Game 4 and a memorable grand slam from Tarik Skubal’s Lane Thomas in Game 5 propelled Cleveland to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.

Yankees: The Yankees rebounded in a big way from their dismal 2023 campaign with their 21st AL East crown and the best record in the American League, marking the first time since 2012 that New York entered October as the No. 1 seed. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto lived up to the hype as one of the more dynamic offensive duos the game has seen in years, and the pitching staff finished the regular season ranked in the top 10 in the MLB in both rotation and bullpen ERA.

While the production outside of Judge and Soto this postseason has been inconsistent, if not downright discouraging, we’ve seen tremendous performances from the likes of rookie Austin Wells, trade acquisition Jazz Chisholm Jr. and super slugger Giancarlo Stanton who have shown the explosive potential. of this setup. Stanton added to his stellar October resume with a big series against Kansas City, helping the Yankees get past the Royals in four games.

Key match

How big is Cleveland’s bullpen advantage?

The Guardians arrived in October with one clear superpower compared to the rest of the playoff field: a bullpen that was at or near the top of every conceivable statistical category. As expected, Cleveland leaned heavily on its relief corps to advance past Detroit — to the point that some of its best weapons suffered the rare miscue along the way. That said, the fact that Clase allowed nearly as many earned runs in the ALDS (4) as he did in the entire regular season (5) doesn’t mean the Yankees will be happy to see him come out of the bullpen.

It won’t be a cakewalk in the late innings leading up to Clase either, especially if Cleveland takes an early lead. Considering he appeared in all five games of the ALDS vs. Detroit, Cade Smith’s elite fastball has finally been introduced to a national audience – and in spectacular fashion, as the rookie righthander struck out 12 of the 22 batters he faced. Hunter Gaddis also had his moments, as did Eli Morgan, Tim Herrin and Erik Sabrowski. This is certainly not a one-man show with Clase in the ninth; manager Stephen Vogt will lean on some of these guys for major leverage over the course of the series.

Considering how well Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle, New York’s primary bullpen trio, pitched last round and through much of the second half of the season, it’s possible the Yankees have the personnel to match zeros with Cleveland’s pen in the second half of the season. later stages of games. With a deeper and more formidable stable of starting pitchers, New York wouldn’t have to ask as much of their relievers, so it will be more about delivering results when their names are called than carrying the load for entire games like Cleveland’s relievers to have.

So far, the Yankees’ bullpen has done just that, allowing a combined zero earned runs against the Royals in the ALDS. This matchup could still favor Cleveland for now, but the gap certainly seems smaller than you might have expected a few months ago.

How they win

Guards: Vogt has said all season that his team wins with the bullpen, and that probably won’t change now. But Cleveland also comes into this series with a notable edge on the basepaths and on defense. The Guardians stole 60 more bases than the Yankees during the regular season and were significantly better at taking the extra base when opportunities presented themselves. While they may not be able to keep up with New York in slugging, the Guardians could close the run production gap with timely and aggressive baserunning and striking defense across the diamond that could thwart potential Yankees rallies.

It’s also crucial to note that these Guardians aren’t exactly the small merchants we’ve seen in recent years. After ranking 29th in home runs in 2022 and 30th in 2023, Cleveland’s 185 regular-season long balls ranked 12th in the league in 2024. There’s more pop in this lineup now and Yankee Stadium is a much more homer-friendly ballpark. than Comerica Park or even Progressive Field, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Guardians launch a few well-timed dingers in the Bronx to help them steal a few games along the way.

Yankees: While hitters not named Stanton were fairly quiet against Kansas City, the ceiling for this Yankees offense remains significantly higher than the opponent’s. They compensate for the Yanks’ lack of speed on the bases by simply standing on base all the time and punishing opposing pitchers with gigantic home runs, as no team walked more or hit more dingers than New York in the regular season.

But while New York using its slugging and on-base advantage would be the easiest way to overwhelm the Guardians, there is also a path to victory through run prevention. Cleveland’s offense is quite difficult to run and features more over-the-fence strength than in years past, but these Guardians still aren’t getting to base at a particularly high clip, and as evidenced by their 20 consecutive scoreless frames against Detroit, their bats can become icy for extended periods of time. If New York’s stellar pitching staff can capitalize on the Guardians’ penchant for chasing pitches out of the zone and keeping their best bats quiet, the Yankees should be in good shape in this best-of-seven, where there is more time for pure talent. to win than in a more condensed series.

Series prediction

Yankees in seven

We’ve seen these teams face off several times over the years, most recently in the 2022 ALDS where the Yankees came back from a 2-1 deficit to defeat Cleveland in five games. There remain a fair number of names on both rosters from that series, albeit mainly on the position player side, with the most notable new characters being Thomas and Tanner Bibee for Cleveland and Soto and Carlos Rodón for New York.

The Yankees won both series against the Guardians during the regular season, winning two of three in Cleveland in April and two of three in the Bronx in mid-August. Both Cleveland wins came in overtime, and the Yankees’ run differential was plus-15 over those six games.

The Guardians are capable of pulling off the upset here, but the star power and superior starting pitching give New York the edge in what should be a great series.