GOP cuts to Democratic advantage

Topline

Less than two weeks before Election Day, early voting is underway in nearly every state in the country — and while there is no consensus so far among early voters on who the front-runner is, Republicans are cutting into Democrats’ early voting advantage.

Key facts

Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts: We’re launching text alerts so you’re always up to date with the top stories shaping the day’s headlines. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or Log In here.

In return for

One sign that could be a positive indicator for Democrats is the number of newly registered voters since 2022: 49% of the 17.82 million are Democrats, 34% Republicans and 17% have no affiliation with either party, CBS reported last Wednesday, citing data from TargetSmart. Enthusiasm for voting has also increased dramatically among Democrats since Harris entered the race. According to Gallup, enthusiasm rose from 55% who said they were more enthusiastic about voting than usual in March to 78% in August, while enthusiasm among Republicans increased slightly during the election. at the time from 59% to 64%.

Crucial quote

“Polls will tell us how people are going to vote, but not who is going to vote,” TargetSmart Senior Advisor Tom Bonier warned CBS, adding that early voting data “won’t tell us who’s going to win, but it’s good breadcrumbs .”

Tangent

More than 1.5 million voters cast early ballots in Georgia during the first two days of early voting last week, starting Tuesday, breaking personal records. As of Wednesday morning, more than 312,000 people had voted by absentee ballot and more than 1.9 million had voted in person, according to the Georgian foreign minister’s office. North Carolina voters also broke the state’s record on the first day of early voting Thursday, when 353,166 votes were cast, according to the State Board of Elections, despite concerns that Hurricane Helene’s devastation would hinder access to the election . Thursday’s figures surpassed the previous record set in 2020 by 1.3%.

Big number

46%. That’s the share of voters polled by Gallup in September who said they have already voted or plan to vote early in the 2024 election, including 46% of Democrats, 43% of independent voters and 31% of Republicans. The share of Democrats who vote early has increased slightly since 2016, from 44%, while the share of independents has increased from 35% and Republican participation in early voting has fallen from 42%.

Important background

Trump and Harris head into Election Day in a dead-heat contest, with polls showing a virtual tie between the two, including in the seven swing states that will likely decide the election. Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, while Harris is ahead in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is tied, according to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, although neither candidate is by more than two in any state. points lead.

What to pay attention to

Trump and his allies are preparing to challenge the outcome of the election if he loses, which Trump says can only happen if Democrats cheat. Trump has also said he will only accept the outcome of the election if it is a “fair, legal and good election,” leaving open the possibility that he could claim malfeasance if he loses. Republicans have already filed dozens of voting rights lawsuits in the 2023-2024 cycle to challenge election protocols in battleground states, while Trump has claimed his legal troubles, Harris replaced Biden at the top and any negative coverage of him in the race all amounts to election interference.

When is election day?

November 5.

How do this year’s early vote totals compare to previous elections?

The early voting numbers pale in comparison to 2020 numbers, when the pandemic boosted mail-in voting participation, but they are slightly ahead of early voting in the 2022 midterm elections, which is also typical because voter participation is historically higher in presidential elections. year.

How many people voted in the swing states?

In the seven swing states that will likely determine the outcome of the election, more than 6.3 million people voted early. In North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania, more than 3.1 million Democrats have voted, while more than 2.6 million Republicans and more than 500,000 unaffiliated voters have already cast their ballots, according to TargetSmart. Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin report no party breakdowns in early vote totals.

Which states have started early voting by mail or absentee ballots?

Every state except Oklahoma.

Is in-person early voting offered in every state?

No. Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire only offer early voting by mail if there is a valid reason.

Is voting by mail offered in every state?

Yes, but nine states – Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia – require a valid reason to vote by mail.

Read more

Here’s how Trump and his allies are meeting potential election loss challenges (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads in Arizona and Georgia, Harris in North Carolina (Update) (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Leads in Fox News Survey – Harris Rises in Two Others (Forbes)