Game Plan: Will Arshdeep and Kuldeep Target Their Match-ups? | ICC Men’s T20 World Cup, 2024

Pitch, conditions and opposition

Unlike England, South Africa are not as dependent on their openers, they have better spin bowling batters and Barbados is not as spin friendly as Guyana. Therefore, India may have to dig deeper against South Africa to create breakthroughs.

The Kensington Oval in Barbados has seen its fair share of spin bowling in this World Cup. In fact, with 43.8% of overs bowled here in eight matches, Barbados has the highest proportion of spin bowling. However, that has only translated into mediocre numbers. The spinners here have averaged 26.4 with an economy of 7.3, both falling short of the benchmark set at some other venues.

The right-arm leg spinners have had the most success here, averaging 18.7 for their 14 wickets. In contrast, the left-arm orthodox spinners have gone for 44.4 runs per wicket. India have two such spinners, Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel, and may have to hide one of them a little with Hardik Pandya’s overs. South Africa are allowed to play only one spinner who is also an orthodox left-arm bowler, Keshav Maharaj.

Barbados also has the factor of a heavy wind blowing over the stadium. Scot Brandon McMullen after 60 off 34 balls talked about aiming for the offside against the spinners because of the wind blowing in that direction. One batter in every match in Barbados talked about the wind and shorter boundary on one side.

Although the final could be played on center wicket, the wind is still an issue that both teams will take into account when determining their tactics.

Arshdeep targets De Kock

Quinton de Kock achieved a strike rate of 158.4 in the power play this World Cup. No other Protea batsman has managed to get above 100. After a grim start, the left-hander returned to form and played decisive knocks of 74 off 40 balls against the USA and 65 off 38 balls against England.

In T20Is, De Kock has only struggled with left-arm pace in the powerplay since 2022. Of his seven dismissals at just 16.1 runs each, five were due to deliveries going outside off and the other two were due to balls running into him. Three full-length wickets further speak to De Kock’s weak defense against swinging deliveries.

Arshdeep Singh has followed the same pattern of dismissing de Kock three times in T20s for just 31 runs. Twice the left-hander has packed the wicketkeeper-batter with deliveries that swung away. However, day matches in the West Indies in this World Cup have not seen much lateral movement for swing bowlers. Arshdeep’s record in the Caribbean leg (economy 8.6) compared to the US (economy 6.3) confirms the theory.

The conditions in Barbados therefore ensure that the match turns in De Kock’s favour, but he will still have to be careful in Arshdeep’s first two overs.

Kuldeep to tackle Miller

David Miller is a bona fide match winner in this format and the second highest points scorer for South Africa in this competition. On paper, Hardik Pandya has dismissed him the most times in T20 cricket for an Indian bowler (4). However, there is no clear pattern, other than Hardik has bowled quite a bit against Miller.

There is a clear pattern to Miller’s struggles against left-arm wrist spinners, though. In T20s since 2023, the 35-year-old is averaging just 5.7 against left-arm wrist spinners at a shocking strike rate of 68. Only 44% of attacking strokes, the fewest against any bowler, dismissed from full and good lengths, all scream that Miller’s strength is fading against left-arm leg spin. The pitch map below shows that he’s not taking these spinners off the cuff.

Kuldeep Yadav himself has caught the left-hander twice for 44 runs. With Miller batting in the middle order and Kuldeep bowling only after the powerplay, their clash seems inevitable and could prove to be a deciding factor in the match.

Tighten the noose around Surya

As mentioned earlier in the semi-final against England, Suryakumar Yadav has no major flaws against any type of bowling. The best way to pin him down is to get him to hit off-side. England did that quite well. While Surya scored 30 off 19 balls in the leg-side, 17 off 17 from off-side moderated his individual score to 47 off 36 balls.

Overall, the right-hander has a strike rate of 101.4 in the off-side and 172.2 in the on-side in this tournament. More boundary protection in the leg-side regions would be the key for Aiden Markram.

Rabada, Jansen vs Rohit

Kagiso Rabada has had Rohit Sharma’s number four times in T20 cricket for 90 runs in 76 balls. Moreover, Rabada has dismissed Rohit on his strength, causing him to pull awkwardly into the fielder’s hands twice. The other two wickets are out and move the ball from a good length.

From the other end, Rohit is likely to face Marco Jansen. Although the two have never met in the shortest format, Rohit always causes a stir at left-arm pace. This World Cup, he has been at left-arm pace four times. However, in the last two matches, Rohit defeated Mitchell Starc in the powerplay and sidestepped Reece Topley’s threat in the semi-final.

Rabada and Jansen are the new bowlers for South Africa. Given Rohit’s crucial contribution in the previous two big matches, the Proteas would be aiming to claim the Indian skipper’s wicket up front.

When is Maharaj going bowling?

Keshav Maharaj is perhaps the only frontline spinner in South Africa’s XI for this final. The poor record for left-arm spinners may make South Africa think twice about how to utilise him.

Maharaj has bowled mostly in the middle overs in this World Cup (21 of his 25 overs). If we follow a similar route, Maharaj can be a defensive option against Surya who has a strike rate of 107.1 against left-handed finger spinners in T20Is since 2023. The problem here is that Surya could be surrounded by two left-handers in the batting order — Rishabh Pant and Shivam Dube.

Maharaj has dismissed Pant twice in just eight balls in T20s, but has yet to bowl to Dube. As the numbers show, there will be no better opportunity for spin-hitter Dube to play his part.

Can South Africa opt for Maharaj in the powerplay? Facing Shakib Al Hasan in the powerplay in this World Cup, Rohit hit 15 runs but was also run out. Virat Kohli, on the other hand, is less proactive against left-handed spin.

So there is some thinking to be done for South Africa regarding Maharaj.